UKRAINE, status update, 2024-07-01; 9:45

(ENGLISH VERSION – scroll below)

I? s?skaitos ? s?skait?

Ruski? vasaros puolimo kampanija i? karto keliose kryptyse, kol kas, neduoda norim? rezultat?.

Charkivo kryptis ?iuo metu ruskiams atrodo visi?kai bevilti?kai, netgi bandymai apsikasti ir ?sitvirtinti prad?ti pav?luotai. Na ir ukrainie?iai to neleid?ia laisvai daryti, dau?o vis? ?manom? in?inerin? technik? ir priemones.

Ukrainie?iai pama?u, ta?iau iriasi pirmyn, i?laikydami, matyt, pagrindinio tikslo krypt? – padaryti kuo didesni? nuostoli? okupantams ir priversti juos mesti vis didesnius i?teklius. Ukrainie?iai tam tikslui turi sukaup? pakankamai paj?g?. ?ia kalba jau nebe apie ukrainie?i? gynyb?, bet apie galimybes atsikovoti prarastas pozicijas.

Tai, kad ruskiams ?ioje kryptyje viskas einasi ne pagal plan?, matome plika akimi. Labiausiai stebina faktas, koki? mi?rain? okupantai susikūr? ?ioje kryptyje patys sau. Kitose kryptyse kanibalizuojami padaliniai ir siun?iami ? Charkivo krypt?. Steb?tina tai, kad siun?iami ma?i padaliniai, taip sukuriant visi?k? logistin? ir valdymo chaos?. Tai rodo desperacij? ir siek? ?ūtbūt i?laikyti veiksm? ?ioje kryptyje.

Tokiu būdu ukrainie?iai negali panaudoti didesni? paj?g? kitose kryptyse, ta?iau ir ruski? paj?gumai ma??ja.

Labai geras to pavyzdys – ukrainie?i? s?km?, v?lgi ne itin didel?, bet labai svarbi, Kremina kryptyje. ?ia jau gerus metus situacija keit?si labai l?tai. Dabar, ruskiams ?iek tiek kanibalizavus ?ia esan?ius paj?gumus, ukrainie?iams atsiv?r? geresn?s galimyb?s. Ne ma?iau svarbu ir aprūpinimas kovos technika, ginkluote ir amunicija. Jeigu ukrainie?iams ?ia pavykt? sukurti galvos skausm? ruskiams, tuomet jiems teks j? pastiprinti ka?kieno s?skaita. Taip sakant koviniai paj?gumai i? s?skaitos ? s?skait?, o komisiniai – nusira?o.

Charkivo kryptyje tik?jom?s, jog ruskiai pastiprins padaliniais i? putinstano, ta?iau jie permetin?ja i? kit? kryp?i?. Ar tai rei?kia, kad neturi parengt? padalini?, nesp?ja parengti, o gal yra kitos prie?astys, kod?l taip daroma? Visi?kai realu, kad ruskiai nesp?ja atstatyti patiriam? nuostoli?, tad tenka skubiai lopyti tuo, kuo gali.

Kad m?sos pradeda trūkti kalba ir faktas, kad ? ?turm? jau siun?ia ir u?verbuotas kalines (moteris). Tai dar vienas ?rodymas, kad ruskiai bando krap?tyti visk? kas juda, kad tik tur?t? kuo kariauti. Apie tai, kad atvyks kariauti ?iaur?s kor?jos in?inieriai, matyt gird?jo jau daugelis. Mūs? vertinimas, kad taip vykdomas pilotinis projektas, ?vertinant tikslingum? atsi?sti daugiau kor?jie?i?. Jeigu pasiteisins (vargu ar taip bus), tuomet bus siun?iama daugiau far?o.

Pokrovsko kryptyje rusai meta dideles paj?gas ir bet kokia kaina nori perkirpti svarb? ukrainie?i? logistikos keli? Pokrovskas – Bachmutas. Nesileisime ? detales, tik pasakysime, kad smarkiai buksuodami jie bando u?kaitinti ir kitas fronto vietas.

?domu tai, kad steb?dami ruski? padalini? i?sid?stym? lyg ir suvokiame, kad vienoje ar kitoje kryptyje tur?t? būti pagrindinis smūgis, ta?iau nematome jokio prover?io. Akivaizdu, kad okupantai pernelyg smarkiai i?barst? savo paj?gas, taip tik?damiesi i?skaidyti ukrainie?i? paj?gumus ir i?vengti galingo kontrpuolimo.

Vis d?lto toks i?skaidymas ruskiams labai ?alingas, nes negali pasiekti joki? didesni? pergali?, o patiriami nuostoliai ypatingai dideli.

Viena akimi stebime kas vyksta Chersono kryptyje. Informacijos srautas stipriai suma??j?s, ta?iau ukrainie?i? veiksmai ir toliau nuoseklūs. Jie vis labiau ?sitvirtina Dniepro salose, taip pagerindami savo pozicijas. Būtent taip ir kuriamos prielaidos s?kmingai ateities operacijai kairiajame krante.

Fronte matome ruski? kovos technikos aktyvumo suma??jim?. Gali būti, kad at?jo suvokimas, jog technika bet kuriuo atveju bus sudeginta ir jos potencialas nebus i?naudotas. Taip pat gali būti, jog siekiama sukaupti didesnes atsargas arba tiesiog nesp?jama patiekti ? front? būtino poreikio.

Ukrainie?iai nebeturi ?audmen? bado, darome prielaid?, kad ir artilerijos vamzd?i? ir atsargini? dali? pristatyta pakankamai, taip kompensuoti anks?iau patirti nuostoliai. Vis d?lto būt? naivu tik?tis, kad ukrainie?iai tur?s kiekybin? amunicijos persvar?. Ta?iau, jau ir to kas yra dabar, pakanka, ypa? turint omenyje tikslum? bei efektyvias priemones kovai su ruski? artilerija.

Ruskiai ir toliau siun?ia kovos technik? bei amunicij? ? front?. Operaciniame lygyje j? logistika veikia pakankamai neblogai, ta?iau taktiniame lygmenyje smarkiai ?lubuoja. Ypa? sunkiai geba ?veikti paskutin? etap? – prie?akini? padalini? aprūpinim?. Abiem kariaujan?ioms pus?ms tai titani?kas u?davinys, ta?iau galime teigti, kad kur kas s?kmingiau tai daro ukrainie?iai.

Ukrainie?iai vis dar smarkiai ken?ia nuo planiruojan?i? aviacini? bomb?. Tai vienintelis dalykas realiai palaikantis ruski? puolimo galimybes. Be palaikymo situacija kardinaliai pasikeist?.

Kol ukrainie?iai neturi paj?gum? apsiginti nuo ruski? aviacijos, veikian?ios dideliu nuotoliu nuo fronto, ukrainie?iai ir toliau t?sia smūgius giliai ? prie?o u?nugar? ir smūgius ? karinius taikinius. Mus d?iugina smūgiai ? Belgorodo srit?, nes būtent Belgorodo srityje okupantai koncentruoja karines bazes, poligonus, aviacijos bazes ir logistikos centrus. Kol kas dar yra apribojim?, k? ukrainie?iai gali daryti su JAV suteikta ginkluote, bet smūgiai jau vyksta ir jie efektyvūs.

Kryme ir toliau s?kmingai dau?oma oro gynyba bei kariniai objektai. ?is pusiasalis ir toliau ukrainie?i? matomas kaip karin? dykuma – ?ia netur?t? likti joki? rimtesni? paj?gum?. Laivyno neb?ra, oro gynyba ypatingai smarkiai ?lubuoja, Juodosios jūros laivyno ?tabas sudau?ytas, aviacijos baz?s tapo nuolatiniais taikiniais, ry?i? ir valdymo centrai dau?omi ir t.t. Ruskiams nebeliks tikslo ten si?sti ir laikyti rimt? padalini?. Tad ilgainiui Kryme likt? tik taktinio lygmens paj?gos.

?i, dabartin? ?tyla“ ka?kiek apgaulinga. Atrodo, kad rus? vasaros puolimas i?sikv?p?, ta?iau manome, kad iki pat v?lyvo rudens rusai bandys pasiekti maksimaliai daug, tad i?liks nuolatinis spaudimas daugelyje fronto viet? - nesirinks priemoni?, netaupys personalo.

Tuo tarpu nenustebsime, jeigu ukrainie?iai vienoje ar kitoje kryptyje prad?s demonstruoti puikius rezultatus. Gauta ginkluot?, akivaizd?iai geriau parengiami padaliniai karui, ukrainie?i? rankose technologinis prana?umas ir nepalyginamai auk?tesn? motyvacija. Kaip sakoma Ukrainos patarli? lobynuose – ?Слава не поляже, а про себе розкаже“ – ?lov? nei?bl?s, o apie save papasakos.

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ENGLISH VERSION

From account to account

The Russian summer offensive campaign has so far failed to deliver on several fronts at once.

The Kharkiv direction is now looking completely hopeless for the Russians, and even the attempts to turn around and gain a foothold have started late. And the Ukrainians are not letting this happen freely, smashing all possible engineering equipment and other means.

The Ukrainians are slowly but surely forging ahead, apparently with the main aim of inflicting as many losses as possible on the occupiers and forcing them to give up more and more resources. The Ukrainians have amassed sufficient forces for this purpose. This is no longer about defending the Ukrainians, but about being able to regain lost positions.

The fact that things are not going according to plan for the Russians in this direction is plain to see. What is most surprising is the mishmash that the occupiers have created for themselves in this direction. In other directions, units are being cannibalized and sent to the Kharkiv direction. What is remarkable is that small units are being sent, thus creating complete logistical and command chaos. This shows desperation and a desperate desire to keep the action in this direction.

In this way, the Ukrainians are unable to deploy larger forces in other directions, but the Russians' capabilities are also diminishing.

A very good example of this is the Ukrainian success, again not very big, but very important, in the Kremlin direction. Here the situation has been changing very slowly for a good year. Now that the Russians have somewhat cannibalized the capacity here, the Ukrainians have better opportunities. Equally important is the provision of combat equipment, weapons and ammunition. If the Ukrainians manage to create a headache for the Russians here, then they will have to reinforce it at someone else's expense. So, to speak, combat capability from one account to another account, and ‘interest earned’ will be lost.

In the Kharkiv direction, we expected the Russians to reinforce with Russian units, but they are re-deploying from other directions. Does this mean that they do not have the units ready, that they are not able to prepare them, or are there other reasons why this is happening? It is very real that the Russians are not able to rebuild the losses they have suffered, so they are having to patch up what they can.

The fact that they are already sending recruited female prisoners to the storming also speaks for the shortage of troops. This is further proof that the Russians are trying to collect everyone who can fight. The fact that North Korean engineers are coming to fight has apparently been heard by many. Our assessment is that this is a pilot project to assess the advisability of sending more Koreans. If it is successful (which is unlikely to be the case), then more of them will be sent.

The Russians are throwing large forces in the direction of Pokrovsk and want to cut the important Ukrainian logistics route between Pokrovsk and Bakhmut at any cost. We will not go into details, except to say that they are trying to heat up other parts of the front by pushing hard.

It is interesting that, looking at the positioning of the Russian units, it is as if we sense that there should be a major strike in one direction or another, but we do not see any breakthrough. The occupiers have spread their forces too thinly in the hope of dispersing the Ukrainian forces and avoiding a powerful counterattack.

However, this dispersion is very harmful to the Russians, as they cannot achieve any major victories and their losses are very high.

We have only limited information on what is happening in the direction of Kherson. The flow of information has been greatly reduced, but the Ukrainians' actions remain consistent. They are gaining ground on the Dnieper islands, thereby improving their position. This is how the preconditions for a successful future operation on the left bank are created.

On the front line, we are seeing a reduction in the activity of Russian combat vehicles. It is possible that the realization has dawned that the equipment will in any case be burnt and its potential will not be used. It is also possible that the aim is to build up larger stocks, or that there is simply a lack of capacity to supply the front with the necessary requirements.

The Ukrainians are no longer starved of ammunition, and we assume that sufficient artillery tubes and spare parts have been delivered to compensate for earlier losses. However, it would be naive to expect the Ukrainians to have a quantitative advantage in ammunition. However, what is available now is already sufficient, especially given the accuracy and effectiveness of the means of countering Russian artillery.

The Russians continue to send combat equipment and ammunition to the front. At the operational level, their logistics are working well enough, but at the tactical level they are limping along. They are struggling with the last stage - supplying the forward units. This is a titanic task for both sides, but we can say that the Ukrainians are far more successful.

The Ukrainians are still suffering badly from aerial bombing. This is the only thing that really supports the Russians' offensive capabilities. Without support, the situation would change radically.

Since the Ukrainians do not have the capacity to defend themselves against Russian aircraft operating at long range from the front, the Ukrainians are continuing to strike deep into the enemy's rear and to strike military targets. We are encouraged by the strikes on Belgorod, because it is in Belgorod that the occupiers are concentrating on their military bases, training grounds, air bases and logistics centers. There are still restrictions on what the Ukrainians can do with US-provided weapons, but the strikes are already under way, and they are effective.

Air defenses and military installations in Crimea continue to be successfully struck. The peninsula continues to be seen by the Ukrainians as a military wasteland - there should be no serious capability left. The navy is gone, the air defenses are limping particularly badly, the Black Sea Fleet HQ has been smashed, air bases have become regular targets, communication and control centers are being smashed, etc. There will be no point for the Russians to send and maintain serious units there. In the long term, therefore, only tactical forces will remain in Crimea.

This current 'silence' is somewhat deceptive. The Russian summer offensive seems to have run its course, but we believe that until late autumn the Russians will be trying to achieve as much as possible, so there will be constant pressure on many parts of the front - no shortage of means, no shortage of personnel.

In the meantime, we will not be surprised if the Ukrainians start to show excellent results in one direction or another. The weapons they have received, the units are clearly better prepared for war, the Ukrainians have a technological advantage and incomparably higher motivation. As they say in the Ukrainian proverbial treasury - 'Slava не поляже, а pro sebe розкаже' - glory will not fade but will tell about itself.

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