UKRAINE, status update, 2023-03-20; 7:55

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

S?veika

Ties Vuhledaru rus? puolimas i?sikv?p?, ta?iau bandym? u?imti ?i? mikroskopinio dyd?io gyvenviet? rusai neatsisako. Tiesa, bandymai kei?iasi, bando praeiti ne tik tiesiogiai, bet ir atlikdami manevrus. Ir nesiseka, kaip ir kitose fronto vietose.

Avdiivkos rusai nesugeba paimti prakti?kai nuo karo prad?ios. Dabar vysto bandymus apeiti atliekant manevrus, o ne puolant tiesiogiai.

Visi ?itie veiksmai rodo labai svarb? aspekt? ?iame kare.

Rusai prakti?kai neturi geb?jim? vykdyti operacij? operaciniame lygmenyje. Tam tikri pavieniai elementai egzistuoja, ta?iau realiai nematome rus? geb?jimo veikti ka?kiek rimtesniame s?veikos lygyje.

Stebime itin supaprastintus veiksmus, kur nereikia gilios ekspertiz?s ir geb?jimo koordinuoti veiksm?, logistikos ir s?veikos. Kol stebime puolamuosius veiksmus, paremtus mas?mis, tol tas trūkumas pastebimas, ta?iau jis ne kritinis.

Visi?kai kitoks paveikslas atsivers, kai reik?s vykdyti gynybos veiksmus prie? agresyv? prie??. Taktinio lygmens veiksmai nesugeb?s sureaguoti ? manevr?, greit? ir ugnies gali?, kuri? pateiks ukrainie?iai kontrpuolimo metu.

Jau?iame, kad kontrpuolimo metu steb?sime griūvan?ias rus? gynybos linijas, mat rusai nesuvaldys greitai kintan?ios situacijos, o tai reik? ne k? kita kaip visi?k? chaos?. Tuo tarpu ukrainie?iai jau kelis kartus ?rod?, kad geba s?kmingai veikti operaciniame lygmenyje, daug d?mesio skiriant s?veikai tarp batalion? ar brigad?, bei aviacija. Tokia s?veika ir bus būtina s?kmei puolimo metu u?tikrinti.

Pabaigai anekdotin? situacija mū?io lauke (informacija i? ukrainie?i? kari?). Ukrainie?iai, kurie jau buvo i?naudoj? visas Javelin raketas gynyboje, pamat? art?jant? tank?. U?sid?j? i??aut? raketos vamzd? ant paleidimo ?renginio, i?b?go ? atvir? vietov? ir imitavo taikym?si ? tank? taip, kad tai pasteb?t? tanko komanda. Tankas sustojo, rusai i?sigand? visk? met?, o ukrainie?iai parsivar? trof?jin? tank?. Autenti?kumo patvirtinti negalime, ta?iau tikime, kad taip gal?jo nutikti. Kaip sako ukrainie?i? liaudies i?mintis – ?Гра?ться, як к?т з мишею“ – ?aid?ia, kaip katinas su pele.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Interoperability

At Vuhledar, the Russian offensive has fizzled out, but the Russians are not giving up their attempts to take this microscopic settlement. The attempts are changing, however, and they are trying to pass not only directly but also by maneuvers. And failing, as in other places on the front.

The Russians have not been able to take Avdiivka practically since the beginning of the war. They are now developing attempts to bypass it by maneuvers rather than by direct attack.

All these actions show a very important aspect of this war.

The Russians have virtually no capacity to conduct operations at the operational level. Some isolated elements exist, but we do not really see the Russians being able to operate at any more serious level of interaction.

We are seeing very simplistic actions where there is no need for deep expertise and the ability to coordinate actions, logistics and interactions. As long as we are looking at offensive actions based on the masses, that deficiency is noticeable, but it is not critical.

The picture will be very different when it comes to defensive action against an aggressive enemy. Actions at the tactical level will not be able to respond to the maneuver, the speed and the firepower that the Ukrainians will bring to bear in a counter-attack.

We think that during the counter-attack we will see the Russian defense lines collapsing, because the Russians will not be able to control the rapidly changing situation, which will mean nothing less than total chaos. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have already demonstrated several times that they are capable of succeeding at the operational level, focusing on the interaction between battalions or brigades and aviation. Such interoperability will be essential for success in the offensive.

Finally, an anecdotal situation on the battlefield. The Ukrainians, who had already exhausted all their Javelin missiles in defense, saw a tank approaching. After placing the fired rocket barrel on the launcher, they ran out into the open and simulated aiming at the tank in a way that would be noticed by the tank command. The tank stopped, the Russians dropped everything in fright and the Ukrainians took the trophy tank. We cannot confirm the authenticity, but we believe that this could have happened. As Ukrainian folk wisdom has it, "Гра?ться, як к?т з мишею" - play like a cat with a mouse.

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