UKRAINE, status update, 2023-03-12; 10:00

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Karo malda

Pastarosiomis dienomis stipriai i?augo rus? gyvosios j?gos nuostoliai. Kovos technikos taip pat sunaikinama ?iek tiek daugiau.

Tai rodo, kad rusai visomis i?gal?mis bando i?laikyti kov? intensyvum? fronte ir irtis pirmyn. Jeigu ties Bachmutu tai jiems, nors ir minimaliai, ta?iau pavyksta, yra kryp?i? kur jie nepasistūm?jo nei per ?ingsn? ? priek?.

?domūs ?vykiai vyksta Svatove kryptyje, ta?iau apie tai daugiau su?inosime netolimoje ateityje. Pana?u, kad ?ia ukrainie?iai gerokai komplikavo rus? gynybos reikalus.

Kartkart?mis gauname klausim??– kada baigsis karas. ? tai negali atsakyti niekas, ta?iau yra visos prielaidos, kad karas baigt?si dar ?iais metais, tik?tina iki rudens.

Karin?je plotm?je rusai turi labai dideli? i??ūki? su paj?g? aprūpinimu kovos technika, amunicija, ?audmenimis ir kitomis priemon?mis. Ta?iau kur kas ?domesn? situacija su ekonominiais putinstano reikalais.

Pra?jusiais metais rusai i?ta?k? labai daug papildom? pinig? karui. Sausio ir vasario rus? biud?eto duomenys parod? visi?k? disbalans?. Per ?iuos metus rusai buvo numat? didel? biud?eto deficit?, ta?iau vien per pirmuosius du m?nesius tas deficitas beveik pasiektas.

Biud?eto i?laidos, palyginus su pra?jusiais metais i?augo daugiau nei 50%! O pajamos suma??jo beveik 25%!

Visi ?enklai rodo, kad tai ne vienkartinis i?laid? padid?jimas ir pajam? netekimas, o nauja tendencija. I?laid? augimas akivaizdus – karas ir jo finansavimas kainuoja itin brangiai.

Tuo tarpu pajam? eilut? traukiasi ir dar trauksis d?l ?vest? sankcij? putinstano ekonomikai. Naftos pardavimas vyksta, ta?iau nebe taip spar?iai kaip anks?iau, naftos kainos u?blokuotos ?vedant lubas naft? parduodant Kinijai, Indijai ar kitiems pirk?jams kaina labai ?ema. Duj? kaina nukrito ? prie?karin? lyg? ir leid?iasi dar ?emiau. Pajamos, gaunamos i??naftos ir duj? krito dramati?kai.

?iomis dienomis paskelbta apie tai, kad rusai neturi kam parduoti ir laivuose ?iuo metu saugoma net 4 milijonai bareli? pagaminto dyzelinio kuro. Tokio kiekio neparduot? atsarg? putinstanas dar niekada netur?jo.

Jeigu ?is kuras nebus parduotas ir i?krautas,?tuomet rusai bus priversti riboti ar net stabdyti naftos perdirbimo gamykl? darb?. Nei Kinija, nei Indija nesuinteresuoti pirkti dyzelinio kuro, mat patys i? pigios naftos gamina ir didina gamybos apimtis. Anks?iau pasirod? prane?im?, kad Indija svarsto ?enkliai ma?inti naftos ?sigijimo apimtis i? putinstano, d?l galim? sankcij?.

Ekonomika putinstano viduje spar?iai traukiasi. Sukuriama ma?iau?ma?iau vidaus produkto, suma??jo vartojimas, preki? gamybos mastai daugelyje sri?i? spar?iai traukiasi. Tokios pramon?s ?akos kaip aviacija, ma?in? gamyba ir pan. susiduria su ne?veikiamais sunkumais.

Putinstano skola itin spar?iai auga ir jau yra didesn??nei?turimi likvidūs rezervai. O vos prie? dvejus metus situacija buvo visi?kai kitokia. Per ?iuos metus buksuojant ekonomikai rus? skola tur?t? i?augti ne ma?iau nei tiek,?kiek turi sukaupt? likvid?i? rezerv?.

Kitaip sakant situacija putinstane blog?ja kasdien. Ir recepto, kaip nuo energetini? i?tekli? eksporto priklausanti ?alis gal?t? i? to i?sikapstyti, n?ra.

Putleris nesugeb?jo ekonomikos pastatyti ant karo ekonomikos b?gi?. Realiai matome putinstano ekonominio kolapso art?jim?. Jis ne?vyks per trump? laik?, ta?iau situacija katastrofi?kai blog?ja ir ji jau ?iais metais taps ypatingai sud?tinga.

O tai rei?kia, kad visomis i?gal?mis putleris bandys u?baigti kar?. Nors jis dabar tarp kūjo ir priekalo. Save ?var? ? kamp? ir neturi ger? atsitraukimo keli?. Karo pabaigti negali, nes i?eis kaip pralaim?tojas, o to nepak?s eiliniai, nusmurg? ir prasig?r? rusai, kurie laukia did?iosios pergal?s.

Vis daugiau gird?sime u?uomin? apie derybas, apie galimyb? susitarti. Galbūt ne i? paties putlerio, bet i? jo aplinkos sklis u?uominos ir ?inut?s apie tai, kad kar? reikia baigtis. Tai nebus taip tiesmuka. Bus pateikiama, kad kar? galime t?sti ilgai, jog esame galingi ir paj?gūs, ta?iau u?kulisiuose bus prakti?kai maldaujama baigti kar?. Kaip sako ukrainie?iai - “Вчорашньою славою на в?йн? не живуть” - vakaryk?te ?love kare negyvenama.

?iurk?, ?sivariusi ? kamp?, su i?dau?ytais dantimis, n?ra tokia pavojinga,?kokia dedasi. Ir su ja susitvarkyti būtina be gailes?io.

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ENGLISH VERSION

War Prayer

In recent days, Russian casualties have risen sharply. The destruction of combat equipment has also increased slightly. This shows that the Russians are trying their best to maintain the intensity of the fighting on the front and to move forward.

If they succeed, albeit minimally, at Bakhmut, there are areas where they have not advanced a single step forward. Interesting developments are taking place in the direction of Svatove, but we will know more about this soon. Here the Ukrainians seem to have made things much more difficult for the Russian defense. From time to time we are asked when the war will end. No one can answer that, but there is every expectation that the war will end this year, probably by autumn.

On the military front, the Russians have very big challenges regarding the provision of combat equipment, ammunition, munitions and other means.

However, the situation with Putin's economic affairs is far more interesting. Last year, the Russians spent a lot of extra money on the war. The Russian budget figures for January and February this year showed a complete imbalance. The Russians had projected a large budget deficit for this year, but in the first two months alone, that entire deficit was nearly reached. Budget expenditure has risen by more than 50% compared with last year! And revenues have fallen by almost 25%! All the signs are that this is not a one-off increase in spending and loss of revenue, but a new trend. The increase in expenditure is obvious - the war is extremely costly.

Meanwhile, the revenue line is shrinking and will continue to shrink because of the sanctions imposed on the Russian economy. Oil sales are taking place, but not as fast as before, with oil prices being blocked by the introduction of a ceiling on oil sales to China, India, or other buyers at very low prices. The price of gas has fallen back to pre-war levels and is falling even lower. Oil and gas revenues have fallen dramatically.

These days it has been announced that the Russians have no one to sell to and as much as 4 million barrels of diesel fuel produced are currently stored on board of ships. Putin has never had this amount of unsold stocks. If this fuel is not sold and unloaded, then the Russians will be forced to restrict or even halt the work of the refineries. Neither China nor India is interested in buying diesel fuel, as they themselves are producing from cheap oil and increasing their production. Earlier, there were reports that India was considering significantly reducing its oil purchases from Russia because of possible sanctions and for fear of being too reliant on Russian energy. The economy inside Russia is shrinking rapidly.

Domestic product creation is falling, consumption has fallen, and the production of goods in many areas is shrinking rapidly. Industries such as aviation, machine building, etc. are facing insurmountable difficulties. Russia’s debt is growing very rapidly and is already larger than its liquid reserves. Just two years ago, the situation was very different. In this year of economic slippage, Russian debt should grow by at least as much as the liquid reserves it has accumulated. In other words, the situation in Russia is getting worse every day. And there is no recipe for a country dependent on the export of energy resources to get out of it.

Russia has not been able to put its economy on a war economy track. What we are really seeing is the approach of an economic collapse. It will not happen in the short term, but the situation is deteriorating catastrophically and will become extremely difficult already this year. This means that Putin will try with all his might to end the war. Even though he is now between a hammer and an anvil.

He has painted himself into a corner and has no good escape route. He cannot end the war because he will emerge as a loser, and that will not be tolerated by the ordinary, dejected, and drunken Russians, who are waiting for a great victory.

We will hear more and more hints of negotiations, of the possibility of an agreement. Perhaps not from Putin himself, but from his entourages, there will be requests about the need to end the war. It may not be so straightforward. It will be presented that we can continue the war for a longtime, that we are powerful and capable, but behind the scenes there will be a practical plea to end the war.

As the Ukrainians say, 'Вчорашньою славою на в?йн? не живуть' - yesterday's glory is not lived in ongoing war. A rat cornered, with its teeth knocked out, is not as dangerous as it seems. And it must be dealt with without mercy.

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