UKRAINE, status update, 2023-01-21; 7:20

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Gynybos ?iupin?jimas

Ties Bachmutu ir Soledaru rusai labai l?tai, ta?iau iriasi pirmyn per savo kari? lavonus. Mūs? vertinimu tai s?kminga gynyba, atsi?velgiant ? rus? potencial? ir negeb?jim? j? i?naudoti.

Ties Soledaru situacija i? esm?s nesikei?ia, mat rusai nuolat pritraukia papildomus padalinius kovinio paj?gumo atstatymui. Tai susij? su labai dideliais nuostoliais.

Daugelis klausia, kada v?l vyks puolimas ir kod?l ukrainie?iai nesugeba i?laikyti pozicij?. Ukrainie?iai nelaikys pozicij? vien tam, kad jas i?laikyt?.

Kare labai svarbu ne taktin?s pergal?s, ta?iau visa karo eiga ir koncentracija ? galutinio tikslo – pergal?s pasiekim?. Ir toliau stebime itin kantr?, labai sunk? ir krypting? ukrainie?i? darb?.

Jeigu rusai kariauja pa?eisdami beveik visas karo vedimo taisykles, o dar ?domiau, kad labai ribotai ir nemok?i?kai, bent jau iki ?ios dienos, taiko karo strategijas ir karo men?, tai ukrainie?iai prie?ingai, daro k? reikia.

Mes neturime net nutuokti kada, kur ir kaip ?vyks vienas ar kitas rimtas kontrpuolimas. Jeigu taip ?vyks, tai bus dar vienas ?rodymas, kad ukrainie?i? vadai kariauja meistri?kai.

Tad ir toliau kvie?iame ramiai reaguoti ? rus? ?pergales“ ir progres? taktiniame lygmenyje. Tai gali t?stis ilg? laik?, juo labiau, kad tai nenulemia karo baigties. Karo baigt? nulemia gerai ?gyvendinti strateginiai sprendimai.

Mū?io lauke agresorius da?niausiai puolimo?veiksmus vykdo su sena technika, da?niausiai su p?stinink? kovos ma?inomis BMP-1, tankais T-72.

Tai n?ra atsitiktinis veiksmas. Tokios technikos jie turi pakankamai daug, ta?iau tai da?niausiai lengvas grobis, ypa? jeigu kalbame apie itin silpnai ?arvuotas p?stinink? kovos ma?inas.

?tai tod?l kasdien matome didelius toki? priemoni? ir gyvosios j?gos nuostolius. Ir tie nuostoliai toliau nema??s, nes rusai neturi kokybi?k? priemoni?, kurias gal?t? pastatyti ?alia p?stinink?. Tad ir toliau vaizdas keisis nedaug.

Zapori??s kryptyje rusai paband? pralau?ti gynyb?. Rus? ?altiniai teigia apie pergales pla?iame fronte, ta?iau mes patvirtinim? tam nerandame. ?ioje kryptyje matome daug sunaikintos gyvosios j?gos. Kokia reali situacija, deja ta?iau negalime pasakyti.

Vien i? to fakto, kad ukrainie?iai ?ioje kryptyje nenaudoja itin svarbi? rezervo paj?g? rodo, kad situacija n?ra itin smarkiai susikomplikavusi. Ta?iau, kaip ir min?jome, lukterkime. Kaip sako ukrainie?i? liaudies i?mintis – ?Мудрий не все каже, що зна?, а дурень не все зна?, що каже“ – gudrus sako ne visk?, k? ?ino, o durnas ?ino ne visk?, k? sako.

?_____________________________

ENGLISH VERSION

Defense suction cupping

At Bakhmut and Soledar, the Russians are very slowly but surely ploughing forward over the corpses of their soldiers. In our estimation, this is a successful Ukrainian defense, given the Russian potential and their inability to exploit it.

At Soledar, the situation remains largely unchanged, as the Russians are continuously bringing in additional units to rebuild their combat capability. This entails very heavy losses.

Many people are asking when the offensive will resume and why the Ukrainians are not able to hold their positions. The Ukrainians will not hold positions just to hold them.

What is important in war is not tactical victories, but the whole course of the war and the concentration on achieving the ultimate goal of victory. We continue to see very patient, very hard and purposeful work by the Ukrainians.

If the Russians are fighting in violation of almost all the rules of warfare and, more interestingly, in a very limited and inept application of the strategies and art of war, at least to this day, the Ukrainians, on the contrary, are doing what is necessary.

We do not even have a clue when, where and how one or other serious counter-attack will take place. If this happens, it will be further proof that the Ukrainian commanders are fighting with skill.

We therefore continue to call for a calm response to Russian ‘victories’ and progress at tactical level. This can go on for a long time, especially as it does not determine the outcome of the war. The outcome of the war is determined by well-implemented strategic decisions.

On the battlefield, the aggressor usually attacks with old equipment, mostly BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles and T-72 tanks.

This is not a random act. They have plenty of such equipment, but it is usually an easy prey, especially if we are talking about lightly armored infantry fighting vehicles.

That is why we see heavy losses of such vehicles and manpower every day. And those losses will continue unabated, because the Russians do not have quality vehicles to put alongside the infantry. So the picture will continue to change little.

In the direction of Zaporizhzhya, the Russians tried to break through the defenses. Russian sources claim victories on a broad front, but we can find no confirmation of this. In this direction we see a lot of destruction of the living force. What the real situation is, unfortunately, we cannot say.

The mere fact that the Ukrainians are not using crucial reserve forces in this direction suggests that the situation is not particularly complicated. However, as we have said, let us wait. As the Ukrainian folk wisdom goes, ‘Мудрий не все каже, що зна?, а дурень не все зна?, що каже’ – a cunning man does not say everything he knows, but a fool does not know everything he says.

#ukraine #war #update