UKRAINE, status update, 2022-12-20; 7:50

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

?U?kalti babki?“

Bachmutas. Kai para?ome ?io miesto pavadinim? visiems skaitytojams i? karto i?kyla rus? kariuomen?s nuolat puolamo ir spaud?iamo miesto vaizdinys.

?? kart? gali būti ?iek tiek kitaip. Kol kas ?i informacija n?ra patvirtinta, tad nesame 100 proc. tikri jos autenti?kumu. Ta?iau pana?u, kad ukrainie?iai visi?kai netik?tai okupantams, kontratakavo miesto pakra?t? pasiekusius orkus. Laukiam patvirtinim? apie ukrainie?i? s?km?, ta?iau pirmieji prane?imai tokie, kad s?kmingai pavyko atstumti prie?? ir u?imti dal? j? pozicij?.

Toks smūgis tiesiai ? veid? agresoriui būt? geras pavyzdys, kad ukrainie?iai tikslingai ginasi, o esant galimybei kontratakuoja. Kontratak? tikslas – i?balansuoti prie?o puolamuosius veiksmus, mat tai i? karto griauna daugel? plan?.

Agresorius bus priverstas reaguoti ir koreguoti savo planus. Prie?o kariuomen? ir toliau puls Bachmut?, bet tolimesni puolamieji veiksmai bus vykdomi ?iek kiek atsargiau.

Kreminna situacija ir toliau i?lieka ?tempta, nieko naujo. Agresorius bando atsikovoti kelio tarp Svatove ir Kreminna kontrol?, ta?iau nes?kmingai. ?ioje kryptyje jie jau prarado iniciatyv? ir neai?ku ar besugeb?s j? atsiimti.

Manevro laisv?s prie Kreminna rusams labai ma?ai, o visai prie?ingu privalumu gali pasigirti ukrainie?iai. Jie stipriai geresn?je situacijoje, turi daugiau veiksm? pasirinkimo variant?. Kaip sako ukrainie?i? liaudies patarl? – ?Терп?ння та труд усе перетруть“ kantryb? ir darbas visk? nugal?s.

Pastaruoju metu pastebime kiek sumenkus? prie?o aviacijos naudojim? smūgiams ? ukrainie?i? pozicijas. Karo metu prarasta labai daug orlaivi? ir j? ekipa?? nari?. Pastarasis faktorius netgi svarbesnis u? orlaivi? praradim?.

Matant itin ribot? toki? priemoni? efektyvum?, o galbūt d?l amunicijos stokos, pastebimas gerokai retesnis aviacijos naudojimas. Gali būti, kad prie to prisideda ir vakarieti?k? oro gynybos sistem? keliamas pavojus. Jos naudojamos ne vien infrastruktūros gynybai, ta?iau ir fronto zonoje.

Jeigu pavyks beveik visi?kai eliminuoti rus? aviacijos faktori?, tai labai komplikuos j? galimybes ne tik pulti, bet ir ginti savo pozicijas.

Ukrainie?iai ir toliau s?kmingai dau?o agresoriaus paj?gumus u?nugaryje. I? kitos pus?s, kad ir kiek juos bedau?yt?, pastarieji vis dar gabena ? front? kovos technik? ir atsargas. Jie kaip tarakonai, lenda i? vis? pakampi? ir bando naikinti visk?, k? sutinka savo kelyje.

Norime pabr??ti itin svarb? pokyt? putinstano informacin?je erdv?je. Anks?iau propaganda buvo sufokusuota ? tai, kad vakarai ken?ia, su?als ir pana?iai. Prakti?kai nieko nebuvo u?simenama apie pa?ius vargstan?ius putlerio gerb?jus.

Dabar pasipyl? daugyb? reklamos siu?et? visuose informaciniuose frontuose, siekiant verbuoti savanorius ? kar? Ukrainoje. Stebina ne siu?et? kiekis ir masin?s reklamos banga, o tai kad ?jimas ? kar? tampa pajam? ?altiniu vargstantiems rusams.

Tai rei?kia, kad putleris vertina pasiek?s stadij?, kai visuomen? nebesifokusuoja ? vakar? nepritekli?, bet susitaiko su tuo, kad patys yra ubagai ir puikus sprendimas ?u?kalti“ babki? yra eiti kariauti. Tokiu būdu putleriui pavyko pakeisti putlerist? m?stym? ir nusiteikim? palaikyti kar?. Jis jau nebesiekia tiesioginio karo palaikymo, bet tikisi supratimo, kada karas gali i?spr?sti putinstano gyventoj? problemas. ?is aspektas itin svarbus. Jo d?ka galima toliau ?dirbti“ su visuomene ir pereiti prie visuotin?s mobilizacijos ir jos palaikymo.?

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ENGLISH VERSION

"Making a buck"

Bachmut. When we write the name of this town, the image of a town under constant attack and pressure by the Russian army immediately comes to mind.

This time it may be a little different. This information has not been corroborated by other sources, so we need to wait to be 100% certain. However, it appears that the Ukrainians, completely unexpectedly for the occupiers, counter-attacked the Russians that reached the outskirts of the city. We are awaiting confirmation of the Ukrainian success, but initial reports are that they have succeeded in repelling the enemy and capturing some of their positions.

Such a strike directly in the face of the aggressor would be a good example of the Ukrainians defending with purpose and counter-attacking when possible. The purpose of counter-attacks is to unbalance the enemy's offensive actions, as this immediately destroys many of their plans.

The aggressor will be forced to react and adjust its plans. The enemy army will continue to attack Bakhmut, but further offensives will be carried out with some caution.

The situation in Kreminna remains tense.?The aggressor is trying to regain control of the road between Svatove and Kreminna, but without success. They have already lost the initiative in this direction, and it is unclear whether they will be able to take it back.

The Russians have very little room for maneuver at Kreminna, while the Ukrainians have the opposite advantage. They are in a much better situation and have more options for action. As the Ukrainian folk proverb says, 'Терп?ння та труд усе перетруть', patience and work will conquer all.

Recently, we have seen a slight decrease in the use of enemy aircraft to strike Ukrainian positions. A very large number of aircraft and their crews have been lost during the war. The latter factor is even more important than the loss of aircraft.

Given the extremely limited effectiveness of such measures, and perhaps due to the lack of ammunition, the use of aviation is much less frequent. The threat posed by Western air defense systems may also be a contributory factor. They are not only used for infrastructure defense, but also in the front lines.

If the Russian aviation factor can be almost eliminated, it would greatly complicate their ability not only to attack but also to defend their positions.

The Ukrainians continue to be successful in pounding the aggressor's forces behind the lines. On the other hand, no matter how much they are beaten, Russians are still bringing combat equipment and supplies to the front. Like cockroaches, they crawl out of all corners and try to destroy everything in their path.

We would like to highlight a particularly important change in the Russian information space. Previously, the propaganda was focused on the West suffering, freezing and so on. Practically nothing was mentioned about the poor Kremlin ‘fans’ themselves.

Now, there are numerous ads on all information channels to recruit volunteers for the war in Ukraine. What is surprising is not the number of ads, but the fact that going to war is becoming an acceptable source of income for the poor Russians.

This means that from the Kremlin's point of view, a stage in the war has been reached when the public is no longer focused on Western deprivation but is coming to terms with the fact that the war is a solution to 'making a buck' for its citizens. In this way, Putin is trying to change the Russian population's opinion of the war. He no longer seeks direct support for it but hopes for an understanding that the war can solve various problems for Russia and its citizens. This aspect is extremely important. It allows the Kremlin to continue to 'work' with the public and to move towards a general mobilization idea.

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