UKRAINE, status update, 2022-12-14; 8:00

(ENGLISH VERSION – scroll below)

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Pergal? bet kokia kaina

Vakar kilo ?ioks toks a?iota?as d?l Bachmuto. Pasklido gandas, kad rusai jau sugeb?jo ?eiti ? miest?, o tai reik?t? ne k? kit?, kaip mū?ius mieste. Sulyg mū?i? mieste prad?ia situacija stipriai komplikuot?si ukrainie?iams. Ne?iūrint to, kad jie sugeba kariauti tokiomis s?lygomis.

?is gandas paplito tod?l, kad agresorius sugeb?jo ?iek tiek prasiver?ti link miesto. Vis d?lto, jau po keli? valand? pasirod? prane?imai, kad ukrainie?iai ?sileido okupantus ar?iau ? anks?iau paruo?tus rajonus, o tada u?pyl? ?kvaline ugnimi.

Patyr? dideli? nuostoli? rusai buvo priversti atsitraukti, tad nieko gero i? savo atakos nepe??. Bachmut? gina pakankamai didel?s ukrainie?i? paj?gos. Smalsu, ar tikrai rusai nori l?sti ? miest??

Jeigu taip, tai bus eilinis kartas, kai jie nesimoko i? ukrainie?i? patirties. Ukrainie?iai kontratak? metu veng? eiti ? miestus, o siek? juos apsupti, kas duodavo mil?ini?k? prana?um? puolantiesiems.

Situacija ir ties Bachmutu ir kitose kryptyse gali keistis, gali būti praradim? ir pergali?, ta?iau tendencija visi?kai ai?ki – agresorius desperati?kai bando pasiekti bent koki? pergali?. Bachmut? atakuoja i? vis? pusi?, ?ūtbūt nori j? u?imti. Situacija ir toliau i?lieka labai ?tempta.

Manome kad tai susij? su rus? siekiu tokiu būdu sukaustyti ukrainie?i? paj?gas ir neleisti ukrainie?iams kontratakuoti. Tokiu būdu agresorius tikisi laim?ti laiko, kuris jiems gyvybi?kais svarbus gynybos ?rengimui, mobik? paruo?imui, logistikos sustygavimui ir pan.

D?l ?ios prie?asties nuolatin? rus? aktyvum? matome beveik visose kryptyse. Na, o Bachmuto u??mimas būt? pateiktas kaip didel? pergal?, kaina nesvarbu. Kita vertus, ukrainie?iai sako – ?Удома ? ст?ни помагають” – namuose ir sienos padeda.

Vakar Baltarusijos paj?gos buvo pervestos ? piln? kovin? parengt? ir i?vestos ? susitelkimo rajonus. Tai tikrai n?ra mokymai, turint tiksl? pasiruo?ti Baltarusijos teritorijos gynybai ir tokio pobūd?io u?duo?i? vykdymui.

Kol kas tai vertiname kaip siek? priversti ukrainie?ius prie sienos laikyti kuo daugiau paj?g?, taip jas i?imant i? ryt? ir piet?. Tiesiogin?s ?siver?imo gr?sm?s i? Baltarusijos kol kas nematome, ypa? vertinant kokia kovos technika ginkluoti baltarusiai ir koks jos kiekis daliniuose.

Norint ?siver?ti ? Ukrain? rusams ir baltarusiams reikia kartu suformuoti bent 40 - 60 tūkstan?i? kari? grupuot?. Ne tik suformuoti, bet ir paruo?ti logistik?, valdym?, ry?ius, i?d?styti ? kovos rikiuot?. Visa tai būt? pastebima ir iki puolimo prad?ios likus ma?daug savaitei steb?tume ai?kius būsimo puolimo po?ymius.

Kitu atveju, tai būt? tik simbolinis ?siver?imas, pag?sdinimas, be jokios gr?sm?s ?iaurinei Ukrainos daliai.

Ukrainie?iai ir toliau atakuoja objektus agresoriaus u?nugaryje. Vienas po kito smogiami s?kmingi smūgiai Himars sistemomis.

Kol kas ne?inome kokios pasekm?s, ta?iau vakar ukrainie?iai pataik? ? rus? 58 - osios armijos vadaviet?s puot? Melitopolyje. ?ios armijos atsakomyb?s rajonas yra Zapori??s regionas. Kalbama, kad sunaikinta visa armijos vadovyb?. Labai lauksime ?i? ?ini? patvirtinimo.

Tam tikru tokio s?kmingo smūgio patvirtinimu gali būti rus? smūgis ? ?ev?enkov?s mikrorajon? Kyjive ?? ryt?. Pasekm?s neai?kios, fiksuotas prie?l?ktuvin?s gynybos sistem? darbas.

Bet kuriuo atveju labai d?iaugsim?s, jeigu duomenys apie auk?to rango rus? vad? sunaikinim? pasitvirtins.

Justas Gav?nas

#infokomanda

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ENGLISH VERSION

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Victory at all costs

Yesterday there was a bit of a stir about Bachmut. Rumor has it that the Russians have already managed to enter the town, which would mean nothing less than fighting in the town. With the start of fighting in the town, the situation would become very complicated for the Ukrainians. Notwithstanding the fact that they are capable of fighting in such conditions.

This rumor has spread because the aggressor has managed to make some inroads towards the city. However, after a few hours, reports emerged that the Ukrainians had let the invaders in closer to the previously prepared areas and then poured in shellfire.

The Russians were forced to retreat after suffering heavy casualties, and did not benefit from their attack. Bakhmut is defended by a fairly large Ukrainian force. We wonder whether the Russians really wanted to enter the town?

If so, this will be another time when they do not learn from the Ukrainian experience. The Ukrainians have avoided going into the cities during counter-attacks and have instead sought to encircle them, which has given the attackers a huge advantage.

The situation at Bakhmut and in other directions may change, and there may be losses and victories, but the trend is absolutely clear: the aggressor is desperate to achieve at least some victories. He is attacking Bakhmut from all sides, desperate to take it. The situation remains very tense.

We believe that this is linked to the Russians’ desire to tie down the Ukrainian forces in this way and to prevent the Ukrainians from counter-attacking. In this way the aggressor hopes to gain time, which is vital for them to set up their defenses, prepare their mobics, align their logistics and so on.

For this reason, we see constant Russian activity in almost all directions. Well, the capture of Bakhmut would be presented as a major victory, no matter the cost. On the other hand, the Ukrainians say ‘Удома ? ст?ни помагають’ – ‘at home, the walls help’.

Yesterday, the Belarusian forces were put on full combat readiness and withdrawn to concentration areas. This is certainly not a training exercise to prepare for the defense of Belarusian territory and the execution of such tasks.

For the time being, we see it as an attempt to force the Ukrainians to keep as many forces as possible on the border, thus removing them from the east and south. We do not yet see a direct threat of invasion from Belarus, especially given the Belarusian combat equipment and the number of troops.

In order to invade Ukraine, the Russians and the Belarusians would need to form a combined force of at least 40 to 60 thousand troops. Not only to form it, but also to prepare logistics, management, communications and deployment in battle formation. All of this would be visible, and we would see clear signs of the coming attack about a week before the offensive begins.

Otherwise, it would be a symbolic invasion, a scare, without any threat to the northern part of Ukraine.

The Ukrainians are continuing to attack objects behind the aggressor. Successive successful strikes are being struck with HIMARS systems.

We do not yet know the consequences, but yesterday the Ukrainians struck a feast at the headquarters of the Russian 58th army in Melitopol. The area of responsibility of this army is the Zaporizhzhya region. It is said that the entire army command was destroyed. We are very much looking forward to confirmation of this news.

Some confirmation of such a successful strike can be seen in the Russian strike on the Shevchenkov district of Kyiv this morning. The consequences are unclear, and the work of the air defense systems has been recorded.?

Justas Gav?nas

#infokomanda

#ukraine #war #update