UKRAINE, status update, 2022-12-09; 8:45

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Klaida po klaidos

Bachmuto ?turmui rusai meta vis daugiau paj?g?. Jiems ka?kod?l ?is miestas yra itin svarbus. Matyt pralaim?jim? Ukrainoje būta tiek daug, kad būtina nors viena gera naujiena.

Ork? srautas ?turmui yra nenutrūkstamas, tuo pa?iu pastebima, kad kovos technikos kiekiai puolimo veiksmuose spar?iai ma??ja. Jos sunaikinta tiek daug, kad ra?istai nebenori jos si?sti ? akivaizd? sunaikinim?.

Mesdami tiek daug paj?g? ir prarasdami protu nesuvokiamus mobik? kiekius, okupantai priart?jo prie pat Bachmuto. Tai truko am?inyb?, ta?iau tokiais veiksmais tai buvo prakti?kai nei?vengiama. Jeigu tendencija i?silaikys, artimiausiomis dienomis rusai gali ?l?sti ir jau ? pat? miest?.

Skirtingai nuo mū?i? mieste, kuriuos jau mat?me kare, ?? kart? tikim?s visi?kai kitokio scenarijaus. Nesitikime, kad miestas kris s?lyginai lengvai.

Rusai turi pakankamai paj?gum? mū?io mieste vedimui, ta?iau per mū?iu Lisi?ianske ar Severodonecke ukrainie?iai gerokai patobulino savo ?gūd?ius.

Reikia nepamir?ti, kad Did?iojoje Britanijoje apmokyta daug ukrainie?i? kari?. Britai itin daug d?mesio skiria mū?io mieste ?gūd?i? tobulinimui. Galime tik?tis visi?kai kitokios kovos mieste ir kitokio rezultato.

I? kitos pus?s nereik?t? tik?tis, kad ukrainie?iai bet kokia kaina gins miest? – vaiduokl?. Jie vadovausis racionalumo kriterijais.

Agresorius t?sia bandymus pulti ir Donecko kryptyje, ta?iau kaip ir Bachmute tai labai sunkiai sekasi ir s?kme to jokiu būdu pavadinti negalime. Rusai netur?t? jos tik?tis ir toliau.

Kituose frontuose be didesni? poky?i?. Orai tur?s didel?s ?takos artimiausias kelias savaites, mat ?iltesni orai su lietumis stabdys ukrainie?i? progres?. Ukrainie?iams i??ūkiai t?siasi, ta?iau jie ir toliau nenuleid?ia rank? ir t?sia intensyvi? kov? bei bandymus komplikuoti ra?ist? gyvenim?.

Galingi smūgiai ? rus? gynybos gilum? daro mil?ini?kus nuostolius orkams. Taikiniais tampa viskas kas turi didel? vert?: vadaviet?s, aviacijos baz?s, logistikos centrai ir okupant? kari? susibūrimo vietos.

Fronte rusai susiduria su visa eil? problem?, ta?iau norisi pamin?ti vien?, kuri nors ir neatrodyt? reik?minga, ta?iau tai pasekm? neracionalaus m?stymo ir praradim? fronte. Rusai intensyviai naudoja tankus netiesiogin?s ugnies vedimui, t. y. juos naudoja atlikti veiksmams, kuriuos atlieka haubicos ir savaeig?s haubicos.

?is sprendimas s?lygotas to, kad rusai praranda labai daug haubic? d?l ?vairi? prie?as?i? – vamzd?i? susid?v?jimas, kontrbaterin? kova ir prie?iūros stoka. Siekdami kompensuoti artilerijos ugnies stok? ra?istai naudoja tankus netiesiogin?s ugnies vedimui naudojant skeveldrinius ?audmenis.

Taip daroma, ta?iau tai neturi tapti norma d?l keli? prie?as?i?. Tokios ugnies efektyvumas nepalyginamai ma?esnis nei haubic?, sunaudojami dideli kiekiai ?audmen?, susid?vi vamzd?iai, u?taisymo mechanizmai patiria mil?ini?kus krūvius. Kaip sako uikrainie?iai – ?Сила воляча, а ум курячий“ – j?gos kaip pas jaut?, o proto kaip pas vi?t?.

Tokiu būdu rusai negeb?dami kovoti fronte s?kmingai daro vien? klaid? po kitos bet kokia kaina siekdami rezultat?. Ir tai gera ?inia, nes tai u?kre?iama. Ir tai stipriai ma?ina ork? paj?gumus ?iame alinan?iame kare.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Mistake after mistake

The Russians are throwing more and more forces at the storming of Bakhmut. For some reason, this city is very important to them. Apparently there have been so many defeats in Ukraine that at least one piece of good news is necessary.

The flow of Russians for the assault is continuous, while at the same time the amount of combat equipment for the offensive is rapidly decreasing. So much of it has been destroyed that the Russians are no longer willing to send it to its apparent destruction.

With so many forces being thrown around and with the loss of incomprehensible numbers of mobics, the occupiers have come very close to Bakhmut. It took an eternity, but at this rate it was practically inevitable. If the trend continues, the Russians may well creep into the city itself in the coming days.?

Unlike the urban battles we have already seen in the war, this time we expect a completely different scenario. We do not expect the city to fall relatively easily.?

The Russians have the capacity to fight an urban battle, but the Ukrainians have improved their skills considerably during the battles in Lisichiansk or Severodonetsk.

It should be remembered that many Ukrainian soldiers have been trained in Britain. The British pay particular attention to the development of urban combat skills. We can expect a completely different urban combat and a different result.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians should not be expected to defend a ghost town at any cost. They will be guided by rationality.

The aggressor is continuing its attempts to attack in the direction of Donetsk as well, but, as in Bakhmut, this is proving very difficult, and we cannot call it a success in any way. The Russians should not expect it to continue.?

On the other fronts, no major changes. The weather will have a big impact in the next few weeks, as warmer weather with rain will hamper the Ukrainian progress. The challenges for the Ukrainians continue, but they are not letting up and are continuing their intense struggle and attempts to complicate the lives of the Russians.?

Powerful strikes deep into the Russian defenses are inflicting huge losses on the Russians. Everything of value becomes a target: command posts, air bases, logistics centers and meeting places for the occupying forces.?

The Russians face a whole series of problems on the front, but there is one which, although it may not seem significant, is the result of irrational thinking and losses on the front. The Russians make heavy use of tanks for indirect fire, i.e. they use them to carry out actions that howitzers and self-propelled howitzers do.?

This decision is because the Russians are losing a very large number of howitzers for various reasons, such as tube wear, counter-battery warfare and lack of maintenance. To compensate for the lack of artillery fire, the Russians use tanks to conduct indirect fire using fragmentation ammunition.?

This is done, but it must not become the norm for several reasons. The effectiveness of such fire is incomparably lower than that of howitzers, large quantities of ammunition are consumed, barrels wear out, and the loading mechanisms are subjected to enormous loads. As the Uikraini say, "Сила воляча, а ум курячий" - strength like an ox, but brains like a hen.

In this way, the Russians, unable to fight at the front, are successfully making one mistake after another at any cost to achieve results. And that is good news for the Ukrainians, because it is contagious. And it is severely undermining the Russian capabilities in this exhausting war.

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