UKRAINE, status update, 2022-11-18; 7:25

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Malda

Karo veiksm? intensyvumas nema??ja. Rus? nuostoliai kasdien ir toliau i?lieka labai dideli. ?domu tai, kad kai kuriose kryptyse okupantai net ir esant bevilti?kai situacijai vis bando ir bando atakuoti ukrainie?i? pozicijas.

Kai kur nuostoliai tokie dideli, kad jau net patys rus? kariniai blogeriai imasi u? galv? ir nesupranta toki? veiksm? logikos. Mes tuo tarpu d?iaugiam?s tuo, kad ukrainie?iai sugeb?jo ?klampinti orkus tokioje kovoje, kuri itin palanki ukrainie?iams.

Būtent tokia situacija susiklost? Vuhledaro kryptyje, kur agresorius buvo ?viliotas ? i? anksto suplanuotas naikinimo zonas i? kuri? i?trūkti prakti?kai n?ra joki? galimybi?. Gynybos pozicijose taip pat ?ūsta ukrainie?i? kariai, ta?iau ?ioje kryptyje santykis tarp ?ūstan?i? ork? ir ukrainie?i? grei?iausiai bus ?spūdingas, galintis siekti ir 1:10 ar net 1:15. Visa tai d?ka gerai ?rengt? pozicij? ir s?veikos tarp padalini?.

Sunkiai rusams sekasi ir ties Bachmutu. Norai dideli, bet galimyb?s ribotos kaip ir kitose fronto vietose.

Svatove kryptyje agresorius nesugeba sustabdyti ukrainie?i?. Ir v?l pasikartosime - orai trikdo ukrainie?i? veiksmus ir gerokai apsunkina veiksmus. Stebime minimal? ukrainie?i? progres? ?ioje kryptyje net ir esant ork? bandymui i?laikyti gynybos linijas.

Chersono kryptyje okupantai bando i?spr?sti dilem? – jiems reikia ir ?tvirtinti bei apginti kair?j? Dnipro krant?, ir sustiprinti kitas kryptis padaliniais, kurie atsitrauk? i? Chersono. Ir toliau dalis padalini? nukreipiami link Zapori??s ir Donecko front?. Did?iausia tikimyb? ?ias paj?gas sutikti bus Donecko kryptyje, kadangi ?ia rusams labai reikia pozityvi? naujien? ir pergali?.

Savo ruo?tu jau pastebime ukrainie?i? paj?g? sustipr?jim? i? Chersono perdislokuojamais padaliniais. Kol kas tai n?ra itin masi?kas perdislokavimas, ta?iau procesas ?sib?g?ja. Teritorijos ?valymo“ darbus perima policija atlaisvindama kariuomen?s paj?gumus kit? u?duo?i? vykdymui.

Perdislokavimo procesas gali u?trukti dar kelet? savai?i?. Sp?jame, kad ukrainie?iai nelauks ir esant pirmai galimybei, veiksm? koordinavimui pasiekus reikiam? lyg?, imsis aktyvesni? veiksm? Zapori??s kryptyje. Jie turi puikias galimybes suformuoti smogiam?j? kum?t? ir gerokai trinktel?ti per gynybos linijas. Ateitis parodys, kas ?vyks.

Kad ir kas be?vykt? ukrainie?iai grei?iausiai liks i?tikimi savo strategijai – i?varginti prie?? smūgiais ? gilum?, susilpninti jo galimybes prie?intis, sugriauti valdymo grandines. Smogti ten, kur jis silpniausias, nesivelti ? mū?ius mieste ir ten, kur prie?as stiprus. Veiksmus prad?ti tuomet, kai prie?as susilpnintas, o puolamiesiems veiksmams tinkamai pasiruo?ta.

Pabaigai apie putlerio vargus. Pagaliau putlerist? vado kalbanti galva piskovas ai?kiai ir rai?kiai i?artikuliavo: putleriui trūks ply? reikia deryb?! Jie atakuoja civilin? infrastruktūr?, nes nori ukrainie?ius pasodinti prie deryb? stalo.

Tai 100 proc. patvirtina mūs? teiginius, kad putleris nori baigti kar? kuo grei?iau. Bet ... neranda būd?, kaip i?eiti nugal?toju i? tos tragi?kos situacijos, kurioje atsidūr?.

Putleris neturi sprendim?, ?sivar? save ? kamp? ir dar prie smilkinio prisistat? pistolet? prad?damas masin? mobilizacij?. Greito putinstano gyventoj? pasiprie?inimo mobilizacijai nebus, bet vis daugiau lavon? pasiekiant namus, vis daugiau ? gatves i?riedan?i? invalido ve?im?liuose, civiliai rusai putinstane prad?s kelti neramumus ir reik?ti nepasitenkinim?.

Tad viskas, ko nori putleris ekonomikai mil?ini?ku grei?iu ?iuo?iant ?emyn, ?spūdingu grei?iu degant finansiniams rezervams, karo pramonei nesugebant patenkinti kariuomen?s poreiki?, lieka tik vienas kelias – melstis, kad karas kuo grei?iau pasibaigt?. O pagrindin? tos maldos dalis yra derybos. Kuo tvir?iau savo pozicijos laikysis Zelenskis, tuo kar??iau orkai melsis pragaro velniams, kad kuo grei?iau ?vykt? derybos, o su jomis ateit? ir karo pabaiga. Kaip sako ukrainie?i? i?mintis – ?Лякана ворона ? куща бо?ться“ – i?g?sdinta varna ir krūmo bijo.

__________________________________

ENGLISH VERSION

Prayer

The intensity of war continues unabated. Russian casualties continue to be heavy. Interestingly, in some directions, even in the most desperate situations, the occupiers keep trying and trying to attack Ukrainian positions.?

In some places, the losses are so great that even the Russian military bloggers themselves are scratching their heads and do not understand the logic of such actions. We, meanwhile, are delighted that the Ukrainians have managed to trap the Russians in a fight that is particularly favorable to the Ukrainians.?

This is precisely the situation in the Vuhledar direction, where the aggressor has been lured into pre-planned killing zones from which there is practically no escape. Ukrainian soldiers are also dying in defense positions, but in this direction the ratio of Russians to Ukrainians is likely to be impressive, possibly as high as 1:10 or even 1:15. This is thanks to the well-equipped positions and the interaction between the units.?

The Russians are also struggling at Bakhmut. The ambition is high, but the possibilities are limited, as elsewhere on the front.?

In the direction of Svatov, the aggressor is unable to stop the Ukrainians. Once again, the weather is hampering the Ukrainian action and making it much more difficult. We are seeing minimal Ukrainian progress in this direction, even in the face of Russian attempts to hold the defensive lines.?

In the Kherson direction, the occupiers are trying to resolve a dilemma – they need to both fortify and defend the left bank of the Dnipro and reinforce the other directions with the units that have withdrawn from Kherson. And further on, some units are being diverted to the Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk fronts. The most likely place to meet these forces will be on the Donetsk front, where the Russians desperately need positive news and victories.

For their part, we are already seeing a reinforcement of Ukrainian forces with the redeployment of units from Kherson. It is not yet a massive redeployment, but the process is gaining momentum. The police are taking over the “clearing” of the area, freeing up the army to carry out other tasks.?

The redeployment process may take several more weeks. We assume that the Ukrainians will not wait and at the first opportunity, when coordination reaches the required level, will take more active steps in the direction of Zaporizhzhya. They have an excellent chance of forming a striking fist and making a significant dent in the defensive lines. The future will tell what will happen.?

Whatever happens, the Ukrainians are likely to stay true to their strategy of exhausting the enemy with deep strikes, weakening their ability to fight back, and breaking their chains of command. Strike where it is weakest, stay out of battles in the city and where the enemy is strong. Take action when the enemy is weakened and the offensive is properly prepared.

Finally, on Putin’s woes. The talking head of the Putin, Piskov, has articulated clearly and expressively: Putin needs negotiations! They are attacking civilian infrastructure because they want to bring the Ukrainians to the negotiating table.?

This confirms 100% our claims that Putin wants to end the war as soon as possible. But … does not find a way to emerge victorious from the tragic situation in which he finds himself.?

Putin has no solutions, he has thrown himself into a corner and he has put a gun to his temple by starting a mass mobilization. There will be no immediate resistance to the mobilization by the Russian population, but as more and more corpses reach their homes, as more and more wheelchairs are wheeled out into the streets, the civilian Russians will begin to stir up unrest and express their discontent.?

So all that Putin wants is, with the economy sliding downhill at a tremendous rate, with financial reserves burning up at an impressive rate, with the war industry unable to meet the needs of the army, there is only one way to go – to pray for an end to the war as soon as possible. And a key part of that prayer is negotiation. The more firmly Zelensky stands his ground, the more fervently the Russian will pray to the devils of hell that negotiations will take place as soon as possible, and that the end of the war will come with them. As Ukrainian wisdom has it, ‘Лякана ворона ? куща бо?ться’ – the scared crow is afraid of the bush.

#ukraine #war #update