UKRAINE, status update, 2022-11-14; 8:40

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Rak?tis u?pakalyje

Po atsitraukimo i? Chersono ruai perskirsto ten buvusias paj?gas. Jau dabar fiksuojamas ?i? paj?g? buvimas Melitopolio ir Mariupolio prieigose ir miestuose. Dalis ?i? paj?g? taip pat tur?t? būti nukreipta ? Donbas?. Arba Donbaso kryptis bus pastiprinta naujai atvykstan?iais mobikais. Bet kuriuo atveju dabar kar??iausia kryptimi tampa Donbasas.

Ten verda tikras pragaras. Orkai ir toliau i?lieka i?tikimi sau – puola neskai?iuodami gyvosios j?gos nuostoli?. D?ka tokio puolimo jiems pavyksta labai minimaliai jud?ti pirmyn.

Kyla klausimas – ar ilgai okupantai gal?s pakelti tokius didelius nuostolius. Yra ?moni?, sakan?i?, kad rusai surinks tiek kari?, kiek reikia. Su tuo i? dalies nesutiktume, ypa? ?inodami kad vis da?niau kyla visuomen?s nepasitenkinimas putinstane.

Kol rim?iau prad?s keistis reikalai toje supuvusioje visuomen?je, tur?s nutek?ti dar daug vandens ir nugulti begal?s rusofa?ist? lavon? Ukrainos laukuose. Ukrainie?iai bus priversti stiprinti gynybos linijas Donbase, ta?iau tam nereikia itin dideli? paj?gum?.

Turime nusiteikti, kad su tokiais nuostoliais rusai ka?kiek laiko dar sugeb?s jud?ti pirmyn. Ukrainos kariuomen?s u?duotis ?ia labai ai?ki – sukaustyti ork? paj?gas ir sudaryti s?lygas veikimui kitose kryptyse. Ir tai sekasi daryti labai gerai. Kaip sako ukrainie?i? liaudies i?mintis – ?М’яко стеле, та твердо спать” – mink?tai lov? pasiklosi, keitai miegosi.

Orkai permesdami paj?gas link Azovo jūros pakrant?s suvokia, kad sekantis ukrainie?i? kontrpuolimas bus nukreiptas ? i??jim? link Azovo jūros pakrant?s. Tokiu būdu visa grupuot? būt? perkirsta pusiau. Tai būt? kiekvieno rus? karo vado ko?maras.

Po Chersono atkovojimo ukrainie?iai itin intensyviai ?m?si naikinti auk?tos vert?s taikinius (angl. high value targets) ork? u?nugaryje. Ir tai daro labai s?kmingai. Pavyzd?iui, vakar buvo smogta itin svarbiai bazei, esan?iai ties vienu i? gele?inkelio keli? i? Krymo. Ukrainie?i? artilerist? rankos labai pailg?jo! Okupantai paskubomis prad?jo permetin?ti ?tabus, logistikos centrus toliau nuo Dnipro up?s.

Ties Dnipru rusai nepaliko itin didelio kiekio paj?g?, tad ukrainie?iams atsiveria puikios galimyb?s diversini? veiksm? vykdymui. Norime i?skirti ?valgybos paj?g? veikimo perspektyvas - tai leist? dar s?kmingiau naikinti svarbius taikinius.

Sklinda kalbos ir gandai, kad ukrainie?i? desantas i?silaipino ir ?sitvirtino Kinburgo kasoje (Kur?i? Nerijos analogas). Visi?kai galimas toks veiksm? variantas, ypa? ?inant, kad ka?kuriuo metu orkai ?ia buvo atgaben? prie?l?ktuvin?s gynybos sistemas, radarus ir elektronines kovos priemones.

Jeigu tai tiesa, tuomet rusai bus priversti bent ka?kaip reaguoti, juo labiau, kad i? ?ia galima vykdyti nors ir ribotas, ta?iau efektyvias veiklas: ?valgyba, sabota?as, ugnies koregavimas, smūgiai taktiniais dronais, kova su ork? dronais ir t.t. Ukrainie?i? buvimas Kinburgo kasoje neatrodo labai reik?mingas, ta?iau kaip ma?a rak?tis u?pakalyje – nepatogu atsis?sti, o jei nei?trauksi – gali prad?ti pūliuoti.

Vertinant ukrainie?i? karines perspektyvas ir galimus veiksmus turime galvoti apie tai, kad dabar ukrainie?iai gal?s i? Chersono srities permesti ma?daug 30.000 - 40.000 kari? ? kitus frontus. okio dyd?io, gerai parengtas paj?gumas yra galinga j?ga. ?itie kariai yra labai patyr? ir gebantys veikti s?veikoje su aviacija ir artilerija.

Suformuotas kum?tis gali pralau?ti ir gerai parengt? gynyb?. ?inant, kad Zapori??s kryptyje ukrainie?iai turi sukaup? smogiam?j? paj?gum?, pana?u, kad laukia ukrainie?i? kontrpuolimas Azovo jūros link. Mūs? vertinimu, tam reik?t? nuo 30.000 iki 50.000 kari? (10 - 15 brigad?). S?kmingai perkirtus ork? grupuot? gynybos frontas (? rytus ir vakarus) ?ioje vietoje sudaryt? apie 200 kilometr?, t. y. ma?daug tiek pat kiek buvo Chersone prie? savait?.

Kuriam laikui matyt mes nematysime itin aktyvi? ukrainie?i? puolam?j? veiksm? d?l poreikio pergrupuoti paj?gumus. Dabar prasid?s naujas etapas ir kova u? iniciatyv?.

Tendencijos geros, nereik?t? nusiminti jeigu agresorius u?ims ka?kiek teritorij?. Dabar karas vyksta strateginiame lygmenyje, kurio sprendim? rezultatai i?ry?k?s labai negreitai. Ukrainie?iai turi visas galimybes ir toliau spausti orkus, atsikovoti tai kas prarasta.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Splinter in the rear

After the retreat from Kherson, the Russians started to redistribute the forces that were there. The presence of these forces in the approaches and towns of Melitopol and Mariupol is already being documented. Some of them are also expected to be redeployed in the Donbass. Alternatively, the Donbass axis will be reinforced by the new arrivals of the mobics. In any case, Donbass is now the hottest destination.

There is a real hell brewing there. The Russians remain true to themselves, attacking without counting the loss of life. Thanks to such offensive tactics, they manage to make very little headway.

The question is how long the invaders will be able to bear such heavy losses. There are people who say that the Russians will raise as many troops as necessary. We would partly disagree with that, especially given that there is growing public discontent in Russia.

Before things start to change seriously in that rotten society, a lot more water will have to be drained and countless Russo-fascist corpses will have to be laid to rest in the Ukrainian fields. The Ukrainians will be forced to reinforce their defense lines in the Donbass, but the new situation would not require a very large additional capacity.

We must be willing to accept that, with such losses, the Russians will be able to move forward for some time to come. The task of the Ukrainian army here is very clear – to tie down the Russian forces and to create the conditions for action in other directions. And it is doing this very well. As Ukrainian folk wisdom has it, “М’яко стеле, та твердо спать” – when you make your bed soft, you sleep well.

As the Russians shift their forces towards the coast of the Sea of Azov, they realize that the next Ukrainian counter-attack will be directed towards the exit towards the coast of the Sea of Azov. In this way the whole group would be cut in two. This would be the nightmare of every Russian military commander.

After the capture of Kherson, the Ukrainians have intensified their efforts to destroy high-value targets in the Russian rear. And they are doing so with great success. Yesterday, for example, a high-value base on one of the rail routes from Crimea was hit. The Ukrainian artillerymen’s arms have become very long! The occupiers have hurriedly begun to move their headquarters and logistics centers away from the Dnipro river.

The Russians have not left a very large number of forces on the Dnipro, which gives the Ukrainians an excellent opportunity for diversionary actions. We would like to highlight the prospects for the operation of intelligence forces, which would make it possible to destroy important targets even more successfully.

There are rumors that the Ukrainian landing force has landed and established itself in the Kinburg Kasa (the analogue of the Curonian Spit). This is entirely possible, especially given that at some point the Russians had brought in air defense systems, radars and electronic warfare equipment.

If this is true, then the Russians will be forced to at least react in some way, especially as there are limited but effective activities that can be carried out from here, such as reconnaissance, sabotage, fire adjustments, strikes with tactical drones, combat with Russian drones, etc. The presence of Ukrainians in the Kinburg doesn’t seem to be very significant, but like a little splinter in the butt – it’s uncomfortable to sit down, and if you don’t pull it out, it can start to fester.

In assessing the Ukrainian military prospects and possible actions, we have to consider that the Ukrainians will now be able to move some 30 000 to 40 000 troops from Kherson to other fronts. A well-trained force of any size is a powerful force. These troops are highly experienced and capable of interacting with aviation and artillery.

A well-formed fist can break through a well-trained defense. Given that the Ukrainians have built up a strike capability in the direction of Zaporizhzhya, a Ukrainian counter-attack towards the Sea of Azov looks likely. We estimate that this would require 30,000 to 50,000 troops (10 to 15 brigades). A successful crossing of the Russian group would give a defense front (east and west) of around 200 kilometers at this point, roughly the same as at Kherson a week ago.

For some time we will probably not see a very active Ukrainian offensive because of the need to regroup. Now a new phase and a struggle for the initiative will begin.

The trends are good and we should not be disheartened if the aggressor takes some territory. The war is now being fought at the strategic level, the results of which will not be apparent for a long time. The Ukrainians have every chance to keep the pressure on the Russians and to regain what they have lost.

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