UKRAINE, status update, 2022-11-12; 8:55

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Strategin? kantryb?

?vykiai Chersono fronte i?sivyst? ?aibi?kai ir i?sipild? tai, ko daugelis tylomis vyl?si – ork? nebeliko Chersono kryptyje. Pralinksmina tokie rus? parei?kimai, kad nepaliko nei vieno veikian?io ar sugedusio kovos technikos vieneto ir sav? nepaliko.

Vie?uose kanaluose jau plinta daugyb? video siu?et? ir nuotrauk? apie rus? palikt? technik?, amunicijos atsargas, ginkluot?. Taip, didel? dal? technikos ir ginkluot?s i?gabeno, ta?iau nema?ai paliko ir ukrainie?iams.

Taip yra tod?l, kad ork? pus?je kariauja ?vairūs padaliniai, kurie tarpusavyje da?nai nelabai susikalba, daug netvarkos ir valdymo problem?. Tokiu atveju nenuostabu, kad vienas ar kitas padalinys būna ka?kur ?pamir?tas“. Okr? tikrai dar liko de?iniajame krante. Dalis j? bando persirengti civiliais ir pab?gti i? Chersono srities, dalis slapstosi.

Kolkas neturime tiksli? skai?i? apie ukrainie?i? trof?jus tiek gyv?ja j?ga, tiek ir kovos technika, ta?iau j? yra. Apie tai su?inosime matyt artimiausi? savait?, kai bus patikrintos visos gyvenviet?s, ork? pozicijos, sand?liai ir angarai. Juose gali sl?ptis tikri lobiai.

Dabar svarbu konstatuoti, kad Chersono dalis de?iniajame krante bus pilnai deokupuota jau artimiausiomis dienomis. Tai rei?kia, kad bus patikrintos gyvenviet?s, ar jose n?ra rus? kari?, diversini? grupi? ir t.t. Itin daug u?minuot? teritorij?, kas kelia mil?ini?k? gr?sm? kariams ir civiliams. Atsitraukdami rusai sugriov? elektros ir centralizuoto ?ildymo sistemas. J? atstatymas u?truks.

Po ?io g?dingo pasitraukimo, kuris jau seniai buvo numatomas, situacija kituose frontuose gali pasikeisti pakankamai greitai. ?iuo atveju mes kalbame apie m?nes? – du.

Ukrainie?iai atsikovoj? Cherson? atliko mil?ini?k? darb?. Dabar frontas ties Chersonu (Dnipro krantu) atrodys visi?kai kitaip ir tai atpalaiduos gausias ukrainie?i? paj?gas. Jas bus galima permesti ? kitus frontus, Chersono kryptyje paliekant tik tam tikr? dal? paj?g?.

Orkai susprogdino Antonovo tilt?, gele?inkelio tilt? ir Nova Kahovka tilt?, taip pat kitus de?iniajame krante esan?ius tiltus. Jais ukrainie?iai vargu ar būt? pasinaudoj? puikiai suprasdami, kad jie patys būt? atsidūr? ork? situacijoje, kuomet tokias vietas labai lengva kontroliuoti ugnimi. Ta?iau tie tiltai būt? pravert? rus? tolimesnio atsitraukimo atveju.

Luhansko kryptyje ukrainie?iai i?laiko iniciatyv?, o Donecko kryptyje neleid?ia okupantams prasiver?ti. Dinamika ir toliau i?lieka ukrainie?i? rankose.

Ko laukti toliau?

Vienas svarbiausi? tiksl? dabar tur?t? būti ork? sausumos koridoriaus i? putinstano ? Krym? atkirtimas. Ar tai ?vykt? ties Melitopoliu, ar ties kuriuo kitu miestu, n?ra itin svarbu, ta?iau Melitopolis būt? geriausia opcija. Būt? logi?ka sugriauti ork? gynyb? ?kalant tok? gil? plei?t?.

Tai ypatingai sunki u?duotis ir jos ?gyvendinimas galimas tik turint pakankamas priemones. Ukrainie?iai intensyviai naudoja visas ?manomas priemones klaidinant prie??, tad ?iuo atveju smūgis tur?t? būti netik?tas. Sunku prognozuoti kada tai ?vyks, ta?iau beveik neabejojame, kad kita itin kar?ta sritis gali būti Zapori?? – Krymas kryptis.?Ateitis parodys, k? sumast? ukrainie?iai.

Pirmiausia ukrainie?i? u?duotis – i?laikyti i?kovotas pozicijas, tuomet susilpninti prie?? paveikiant jo valdymo grandines, logistik? ar personal?. Po to seka aktyvūs kovos veiksmai, kuri? tikslas pvz. – atsikovoti prarastas teritorijas. Dabar matysime Chersono grupuot?s pergrupavim? ir dalies jos perk?lim? ? kitus frontus.

Ukrainie?iai demonstruoja labai ger? strategin? kantryb?. Puolim? nevykdo aklai, o ruo?ia dirb? ir laukia tinkamo laiko bei aplinkybi?. Tai auk??iausio lygio vad? darbas, nusipelnantis pagyr?.

Dar kelias dienas pasid?iaukime dabartine ukrainie?i? s?kme, o tuomet prad?sime steb?ti ir vertinti, kaip ?ie ?vykiai pakeis situacij? kituose frontuose. ?Kaip sako ukrainie?i? patarl? – ?Д?ла говорять голосн?ше, як слова” – darbai kalba garsiau nei ?od?iai.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Strategic patience

Events on the Kherson front unfolded with lightning speed, and what many had quietly hoped for came true: the Russians were no longer on the Kherson front. It is funny to hear them say that they have not left a single piece of combat equipment in working order or broken.

Contrary to the official statements, numerous videos and photographs of Russian abandoned equipment, ammunition stocks and weapons are already circulating on public channels. Yes, Russians took a large part of the equipment and armaments, but they also left a lot for the Ukrainians.

This is because on the Russian side there are various units fighting, which often do not communicate very well with each other, and there is a lot of disorder and management problems. It is not surprising then that one or another unit is “forgotten” somewhere. There are certainly still some troops left on the right bank. Some of them are trying to disguise themselves as civilians and escape from the Kherson area, some are in hiding.

We do not yet have precise figures on Ukrainian trophies, both in terms of manpower and combat equipment, but they are there. We will know, probably in the next week, when all settlements, Russian positions, warehouses and hangars will be checked. They could be hiding real treasures.

It Is important to state now that the part of Kherson on the right bank will be completely de-occupied in the coming days. This means checking the settlements for Russian troops, diversionary groups, etc. There are a large number of mined areas, which is a huge threat to soldiers and civilians. The Russians have destroyed the electricity and central heating systems in their retreat. It will take time to rebuild them.

After this disgraceful withdrawal, which has long been foreseen, the situation on other fronts may change quite quickly. In this case, we are talking about a month or two.

The Ukrainians have done a tremendous job in retaking Kherson. Now the front at Kherson (on the Dnipro bank) will look completely different, and this will relieve the large Ukrainian forces. They can be redeployed to other fronts, leaving only a limited number of forces in the Kherson direction.

The Antonov Bridge, the railway bridge and the Nova Kahovka Bridge, as well as other bridges on the right bank, have been blown up by the Russians. The Ukrainians are unlikely to have used them, knowing full well that they would have found themselves in an Russian situation, where such places are very easy to control by live fire. However, the bridges would have come in handy in the event of a further Russian retreat.

In Luhansk, the Ukrainians are maintaining the initiative, while in Donetsk they are preventing the invaders from breaking through. The momentum remains with the Ukrainians.

What can we expect next?

One of the most important objectives now should be to cut off the Russian land corridor from Russia to Crimea. Whether this happens at Melitopol or some other town is not particularly important, but Melitopol would be the best option. It would be logical to break the Russian defenses by driving such a deep wedge.

This is an extremely difficult task and can only be achieved with sufficient resources. The Ukrainians are intensively using all possible means to mislead the enemy, so in this case the strike should be unexpected. It is difficult to predict when it will happen, but we are almost certain that the next hot area could be the Zaporizhzhya-Crimea axis.?The future will show what the Ukrainians are up to.

The Ukrainians’ first task is to hold the positions they have won, then to weaken the enemy by influencing their chains of command, logistics or personnel. This will be followed by active hostilities aimed, for example, at regaining lost territories. We will now see the regrouping of the Kherson Group and the redeployment of some of it to other fronts.

The Ukrainians are showing very good strategic patience. They do not attack blindly, but prepare and wait for the right time and circumstances. This is the work of commanders of the highest caliber and deserves praise.

Let us enjoy the current Ukrainian success for a few more days, and then we will begin to observe and assess how these events will change the situation on other fronts.?As the Ukrainian proverb says, ‘Д?ла говорять голосн?ше, як слова’ – ‘deeds speak louder than words’.

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