UKRAINE, status update, 2022-10-27, 8:45

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Lavonynas

Kasryt mus pasiekia bent kelios geros naujienos. Nors tai n?ra dideli pasiekimai mū?io lauke, ta?iau progresas pastaruoju metu i?lieka.

Charkivo – Luhansko sri?i? sandūroje ukrainie?iai ir toliau s?kmingai t?sia puolamuosius veiksmus. Beveik vis? pastar?j? savait? fiksuojami gyvenvie?i? i?laisvinimai. Ukrainie?iai art?ja prie Svatove gynybos linijos. Vis dar daugiausiai d?mesio skiriama rimtesnio smūgio paruo?imui ir gynybos linijos pralau?imui.

Rusai, po staigi? netek?i? rytuose pakeit? po?iūr? ? gynyb?. J? e?elonuoja, tad staigūs prasiver?imai ? gynybos gilum? bus vis sunkiau ?gyvendinami. Gynyba ? gilum? gali siekti de?imtis kilometr?.

Bachmuto ir Zapori??s kryptyse be didesni? poky?i?. Ukrainie?i? kontrataka ties Bachmutu buvo taktin?s reik?m?s, siekiant pasigerinti turimas pozicijas. I? jos nei?sivyst? didesnis kontrpuolimas.

Chersono srityje taip pat be didesni? poky?i?. Mū?iai vyksta d?l pavieni? gyvenvie?i? ir geresni? pozicij?. Ukrainie?iai, po staigaus kontrpuolimo buvo priversti paimti taktin? pauz?, kad gal?t? atstatyti paj?gumus ir pasiruo?ti tolimesniems veiksmams. Dabar situacija puolam?j? veiksm? vedimui itin sunki d?l smarkiai subjurusi? or? ir d?l to pa?liugusios ?em?s.

Po vakaryk?t?s ap?valgos gavome kelet? klausim? apie ukrainie?i? skelbiamus ork? nuostolius. Ar i? ties? jie tokie dideli.

Prasid?jus karo veiksmams labai steb?jom?s apie ukrainie?i? pateikiamus rus? nuostolius. Buvo visko, ir visi?kai nes?moning? skai?i? ir klaidinan?ios informacijos. Negalime teigti, kad pateikiami skai?iai teisingi, nes ne?manoma tiksliai palyginti. Ta?iau, kad jie preliminariai atitinka tai, k? matome mū?io lauke, esame ?sitikin?.Nedarome tikslaus duomen? patikrinimo, ta?iau esant nepaliaujamam informacijos srautui i? karo zonos, duomenys ir faktai i? skirting? informacijos ?altini?, patvirtina vien? ar kit? informacij?.

Keletas pavyzd?i?. Karo prad?ioje link Kyjivo jud?jo kadyrovc? kolona. Don-dono (Kadyrovo) pavaduotojas nufilmavo siu?et?, kad jo padalinys vyksta ? Kyjiv?. Po keli? valand? gautas prane?imas apie ?ios kolonos prakti?kai piln? sunaikinim? ir don-dono pavaduotojo ?ūt?.

Ukrainie?iai tos dienos suvestin?je pateik? tam tikrus nukaut? ork? skai?ius. Ork? telegram kanaluose pasipyl? prane?imai ir nuotraukos i? vietos. Mil?ini?kas kiekis sunaikintos kovos technikos. Po to pasirod? nekrologai i? ????nijos. Ir labai greitai at?jo informacija, kad don-donas siun?ia nauj? pulk? ? Ukrain?.

Tuo pat metu pasirod? informacija i??Baltarusijos apie mil?ini?k? lavon? kiekio plūstel?jim? i? Ukrainos ir perpildytas ligonines, j? koridoriuose gulin?ius sunkiai su?eistuosius. Paj?gum? suteikti pagalb? nepakako, net surinkus daug papildomo medicinos personalo.

I? to galima daryti i?vad?, kad sunaikinus bataliono grup? ar pulk?, jos nuostoliai sudarys ne ma?iau kaip ?imt? – du ?imtus ?uvusi? ir bent kelis ?imtus sunkiai su?eist?. I? kuri? didel? dalis nei?gyvens.

Pavyzd?i? kaip ?i?lenda“ viena ar kita informacija ir patvirtina teiginius, yra gausyb?.

Tarkime apie ork? SOBR būrio sunaikinim? viename i? operacijos rajon? informacija pirmiausia pasirod? vie?uose ukrainie?i? kanaluose. Po savait?s viename i? miest? SOBR būstin?je nufilmuota ?uvusi?j? pagerbimo vieta su bema? 20 j? nuotrauk?. Telegram kanaluose i? karto pasipyl? informacija, kad ?ia ne visi ?uv?, j? gerokai daugiau ir pan.

Ilgainiui prad?jome tik?ti ukrainie?i? skai?iais. Buvo moment?, kai jie netgi pasirodydavo pernelyg ma?i pagal tai kiek ir ko nuveik? ukrainie?iai karo zonoje. Dar vienas svarbus aspektas – pasteb?jome, jog tam tikrais atvejais ukrainie?i? informacija i? mū?io lauko v?luoja 1-2 dienas.

Labai geras pavyzdys yra vedamas ??urnalas“ apie ?uvusius ork? karininkus. Vizualiai patvirtinta, kad j? ?uvo daugiau nei 1300! Vien tik karinink?! O kiek j? dar nepatvirtinta?

Pabaigai. Beveik kasdien ukrainie?i? aviacija suduoda 10 - 20 oro smūgi?, artilerija ?gyvendina bema? po 200 ugnies u?duo?i?. Prid?kime p?stininkus su kovos technika, spec. paj?gas su reidais ir t.t.

Tad ork? nuostoliai, kokius pateikia ukrainie?iai mums atrodo visi?kai pagr?sti tuo, kas vyksta ant ?em?s ir tuo, k? fiksuojame vie?uose informacijos kanaluose. ?Правда оч? коле“ – tiesa akis bado, kaip pasakyt? ukrainie?iai.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Morgue

Every morning, at least some good news reaches us. While these are not great achievements on the battlefield, there has been progress recently.

At the junction of the Kharkiv-Luhansk areas, the Ukrainians continue to successfully pursue their offensive. Liberations of settlements have been recorded almost throughout the past week. The Ukrainians are approaching the Svatove defense line. The focus remains on preparing for a more serious strike and breaching the line of defense.

The Russians have changed their approach to defense after sudden losses in the east. They are echeloning it, so that sudden breakthroughs into the depths of the defense will be increasingly difficult. Inland defenses can reach tens of kilometers.

No major changes in the direction of Bakhmut and Zaporizhia. The Ukrainian counter-attack at Bakhmut was of tactical significance to improve the positions held. It did not lead to a major counter-offensive.

In the Kherson area there were also no major changes. The battles are fought for isolated settlements and better positions. The Ukrainians have been forced to take a tactical pause after the sudden counter-attack in order to rebuild their forces and prepare for further action. The situation for the offensive is now particularly difficult due to the severe weather and the resulting slippery ground.

After yesterday’s review, we have received several questions about the Russian losses reported by the Ukrainians. Are they really that high?

Since the outbreak of hostilities, we have wondered a great deal about the Russian losses reported by the Ukrainians. There were all sorts of nonsensical figures and misleading information. We cannot say that the figures are correct, because it is impossible to make a precise comparison. However, we are confident that they are tentatively in line with what we are seeing on the battlefield. We do not do an exact check of the data, but with the constant flow of information from the war zone, data and facts from different sources of information confirm one or another.

A few examples. At the beginning of the war, a column of Kadyrovtsy was moving towards Kyiv. The deputy of Don-don (Kadyrov) filmed a storyline that his unit was heading for Kyiv. A few hours later, a report was received about the almost complete destruction of this column and the death of the deputy don-don.

The Ukrainians gave in their summary of the day certain numbers of Russians killed. Reports and photos from the scene poured in on Russian Telegram channels. A huge amount of combat equipment was destroyed. This was followed by obituaries from Chechnya. And very soon, information came that Don Don is sending a new regiment to Ukraine.

At the same time, there was information from Belarus about the enormous influx of corpses from Ukraine and the overcrowding of hospitals, with the seriously wounded lying in their corridors. There was not enough capacity to provide assistance, even with the large number of additional medical staff.

From this it can be concluded that if a battalion group or regiment were destroyed, its losses would amount to at least one hundred to two hundred dead and at least a few hundred seriously wounded. A large proportion of whom will not survive.

Examples abound of how one piece of information or another ‘comes out’ and confirms claims.

For example, information about the destruction of an Russian SOBR squad in one of the areas of the operation first appeared on public Ukrainian channels. A week later, in one of the cities, a tribute to the dead was filmed at the SOBR headquarters, with nearly 20 photographs of them. Telegram feeds immediately started to circulate information that not all the dead were there, but many more, etc.

Eventually we started to believe the Ukrainian figures. There were times when they even seemed too low in relation to what the Ukrainians did in the war zone. Another important aspect is that we noticed that in some cases the Ukrainian information from the battlefield was 1-2 days late.

A very good example is the “log” kept on the fallen Russian officers. It is visually confirmed that more than 1300 of them died! Just the officers alone! And how many are still unconfirmed?

In conclusion. Almost every day, the Ukrainian air force carries out 10 to 20 air strikes and the artillery carries out nearly 200 fire missions. Let’s add infantry with combat equipment, special forces with raids, etc.

So the Russian losses that the Ukrainians are presenting seem to us to be entirely justified by what is happening on the ground and by what we are seeing in the public information channels. “Правда оч? коле” – the truth is eye-watering, as the Ukrainians would say.

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