UKRAINE, status update, 2022-10-24, 8:00

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Ne?varūs sumanymai

Bachmuto kryptyje orkai puolim? vykdo jau beveik pus? met?. ?i kryptis jiems lyg rak?tis subin?j. Nepavyksta i?traukti, bet ir atsis?sti negali, skauda. ?ioje kryptyje pagrindiniu smuiku ?grie??“ Vagner grupuot?s kariai. J? ?ia nugul? tūkstan?iai.

Vienas beproti?kiausi? ir beprasmi?kiausi? profesionali? kari? paaukojimo būdas. Vagner grupuot?s pagrindas prakti?kai sunaikintas, i? sen?j? patyrusi? kari? liko tik trupiniai. Dabar u? Vagner kovoja kaliniai, visokio plauko pra?alai?iai ir alkoholikai.

Tai viena prie?as?i? kod?l pastaruoju metu jiems nelabai kaip sekasi. O ?iomis dienomis jie priversti pajusti ukrainie?i? kontratakos skon?. Ukrainie?iai per kelias dienas ?ioje kryptyje sudav? skaud?i? smūgi? orkams.

Rusams nepastebint ? Bachmut? buvo pritrauktos papildomos ukrainie?i? paj?gos. Toks manevras labai tikslingas, nes okupantai daugiausia d?mesio pastaruoju metu skyr? ne Bachmuto ar Zapori??s kryptims.

Kol kas nelabai ?inome, koks yra ukrainie?i? sumanymas ?ioje kryptyje, tikim?s kad artimiausiu metu paai?k?s, ar tai tik lokali kontrataka ar prad?ia ka?ko didesnio.

Charkivo - Luhansko sri?i? riboje ukrainie?iai s?kmingai vysto puolim? ir siekia susikurti prielaidas tolimesniam puolimo vystymui. Ork? bandymai netoli Kreminna atstumti ukrainie?ius bevaisiai. Manevro ir ugnies prana?umas ukrainie?i? pus?je.

Artimiausias ukrainie?i? tikslas – pralau?ti ork? gynybos linij?. Tai leist? griūti visai gynybos linijai.

Chersono srityje kol kas sunku pasakyti koks tikrasis ork? tikslas ir veiksmai. ?iuo metu stebime nedidel? ukrainie?i? progres? ir itin daug veiksmo ork? u?nugaryje.

Jeigu rusai nuspr?s pilnai trauktis i? de?iniojo Dnipro kranto, tuomet jiems tai bus itin didelis i??ūkis.

Paj?g? atitraukimas yra itin sud?tingas veiksmas, kuomet reikia ?vertinti ir suplanuoti gausyb? element?. Rus? karin?je doktrinoje yra apra?ytas toks veiksmas ir jo atlikimo metodika. Vargu ar orkai sugeb?s skland?iai ?gyvendinti ?i? u?duot?.

?ia reikia paj?g? veiksm? koordinavimo, atsitraukimo tvarkos paruo?imo, ugnies palaikymo plano, aviacijos paramos, ukrainie?i? paj?g? sukaustymo, apgauling? veiksm?, maskuot?s ir slaptumo u?tikrinimo. Ne ma?iau svarbios ir priemon?s, logistikos elementai, ry?io u?tikrinimas ir t.t.

Tinkamai suplanuotas ir ?gyvendintas atsitraukimas lemia ma?esnius nuostolius, vertingos kovos technikos i?saugojim?, kovin?s galios i?laikym?.

?is atsitraukimas, jeigu toks ?vyks, bus visi?kai kitoks, nei kad rusams pavyko prie Kyjivo. Tuomet ukrainie?iai nebuvo pasiruo?? persekioti ir aviacijos, artilerijos d?ka naikinti besitraukian?ius orkus.

Dabar situacija visi?kai kita. Niekas neleis rusams sprukti nebaud?iamiems. Juo labiau, kad yra keletas ?butelio kakliuk?“ atsitraukimui.

?iandien labiausiai neramina ?oigu skambu?iai Vakar? ?ali? gynybos ministrams su teiginiais, kad ukrainie?iai ruo?iasi susprogdinti ?ne?vari?“ bomb?. Ne?vari bomba – radioaktyvi?j? daleli? turintis sprogmuo. Gali būti radiacin?s atliekos i? gamybos ir pan.

Neramina tai, kad rusi visada patys atskleid?ia savo planus. Būtent jie ir planuoja toki? diversij?, jai ruo?ia dirv?. Tik pateikia tai kaip ukrainie?i? plan?. Jeigu reik?t? la?intis, statytume u? tai, kad i? Zapori??s atomin?s elektrin?s yra paimta radioaktyvi?j? med?iag? ir jos bus panaudotos. Ar bus panaudota ar ne mes dar pamatysime.

Ta?iau tai taip pat signalizuoja, kad orkai neplanuoja panaudoti atominio ginklo. Jie bijo vakar? reakcijos ir atsako. Putlerio teiginiai apie tai, kad jis neblefuoja ir panaudos atomin? ginkl? yra ne kas kita kaip tikr? tikriausias blefas. D?l ?ios prie?asties ie?ko kit? būt? kaip pakenkti ukrainie?iams, nes fronte reikalai klostosi labai nekaip.

?В?йна - це велике болото: легко вл?зти, але важко вибратися“ – karas – tai didel? pelk?: lengva ?l?sti, bet sunku i?sikapstyti.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Dirty ideas

Russians have been on the offensive in the Bakhmut direction for almost half a year. This direction is like a scab in their waist. They can’t pull it out, but they can’t sit down either, it hurts. The main violin in this direction has been played by the soldiers of the Wagner group. Thousands of them lay here.

One of the craziest and most senseless sacrifices of professional soldiers. The core of the Wagner Group has been virtually destroyed, with only a few of the old, experienced soldiers left. Now it is prisoners, all sorts of scroungers and alcoholics who fight for Wagner.

This is one of the reasons why they have not been doing so well lately. And these days they are being forced to taste the Ukrainian counter-attack. The Ukrainians have dealt a severe blow to the Russians in this direction over the past few days.

Additional Ukrainian forces have been brought into Bakhmut without the Russians noticing. This maneuver was very appropriate, as the occupiers have not been focusing on the Bakhmut or Zaporizhzhya directions lately.

We do not yet know what the Ukrainians’ intentions are in this direction, and we hope that it will soon become clear whether this is just a localized counter-attack or the start of something bigger.

On the Kharkiv-Luhansk border, the Ukrainians are successfully developing their offensive and are seeking to create the preconditions for further offensive development. Russian attempts to repel the Ukrainians near Kreminna are fruitless. Maneuver and fire advantage are on the Ukrainian side.

The Ukrainians’ immediate objective is to break through the Russian defensive line. This would allow the entire line of defense to collapse.

In the Kherson area, it is difficult to say what the real objective and actions of the Russians are at the moment. At the moment we are observing a small Ukrainian advance and a lot of action in the Russian rear.

If the Russians decide to retreat fully from the right bank of the Dnipro, then this will be a very big challenge for them.

A withdrawal is an extremely complex operation with many elements to consider and plan for. Russian military doctrine describes such an action and its methodology. It is unlikely that the Russians will be able to carry out this task smoothly.

It requires coordination of forces, preparation of a retreat order, a fire support plan, air support, shackling of Ukrainian forces, deception, camouflage and secrecy. Equally important are the means, logistical elements, communication, etc.

A properly planned and executed retreat results in lower losses, preservation of valuable combat equipment and maintenance of combat power.

This retreat, if it takes place, will be completely different from the one that the Russians managed at Kyiv. Then the Ukrainians were not prepared to pursue and destroy the retreating Russians with aviation and artillery.

Now the situation is completely different. No one will allow the Russians to escape with impunity. All the more so because there are several “bottle necks” for retreat.

Most worrying today are the calls from Shoigu to the defense ministers of the Western countries claiming that the Ukrainians are preparing to detonate a “dirty” bomb. A dirty bomb is an explosive containing radioactive particles. It could be radioactive waste from production, etc.

It is worrying that the Russians always reveal their plans themselves. It is they who are planning such a diversion, preparing the ground for it. They are just presenting it as a Ukrainian plan. If we had to place a bet, we would bet on the fact that radioactive material has been taken from the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and will be used. Whether it will be used or not remains to be seen.

However, it also signals that the Russians have no plans to use nuclear weapons. They are afraid of the West’s reaction and response. Putler’s claims that he is not bluffing and that he will use nuclear weapons are nothing more than a bluff. For this reason, he is looking for other ways to undermine the Ukrainians, because things are not going well on the front line.

‘В?йна – це велике болото: легко вл?зти, ale важко вибратися’ – war is a big swamp: it is easy to get in, but difficult to get out.

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