UKRAINE, status update, 2022-10-18, 9:55
Justas Gavenas, CMC
Co-founder @ ADVENTICA | Managing partner @ TALENT? NAMAI | Blogger @ INFOKOMANDA
(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)
Temstantys miestai
Naujien? i? fronto ma?ai. Ukrainie?iai itin kruop??iai stengiasi pasl?pti informacij? apie vykdom? kontrpuolim? Chersono kryptyje (i? ?iaur?s). Kol kas nefiksuojame itin didelio ukrainie?i? progreso, tik epizodinius pasiekimus.
Stebime pastangas surasti silpnas ork? vietas. Ukrainie?iai ?ioje kryptyje turi mechanizuot? ir motorizuot? padalini?, kuri? d?ka pralau?us gynyb? gal?t? jud?ti greitai.
De?iniajame Dnipro krante stebime kelet? viet?, kur ukrainie?iai didina paj?g? koncentracij?. Tai liudija apie pasiruo?im? rimtesniems puolamiesiems veiksmas, ta?iau jau ne ?iaurin?je okupuot? teritorij? pus?je.
Charkivo - Luhansko sri?i? sandūroje fiksuojamas nedidelis ukrainie?i? progresas. Savo ruo?tu rusai bando kontratakuoti Kupiansko kryptimi ir priversti ukrainie?ius atsisakyti puolam?j? veiksm?. Tai vienas i? būd?, kaip orkai gal?t? pristabdyti arba sustabdyti ukrainie?i? kontrpuolim?. Tokio kontrpuolimo tikslas n?ra nauj? teritorij? u?grobimas. Siekis laim?ti laiko gynybos ?rengimui.
Na, o jeigu jiems nusi?ypsot? s?km?, galbūt kontrpuolim? i?naudoti ir pla?iau. Tuo labai abejotume, nes orkai akivaizd?iai per?jo prie d?mesio sutelkimo ? gynyb?.
?ioje kryptyje frontas ne ma?iau kaip 100 kilometr?, j? kontroliuoti sunku. Ukrainie?iai ?ioje kryptyje net keliose vietose koncentruoja paj?gas būsimiems veiksmams.
Ties Bachmutu ir Zapori??s kryptyje situacija nelabai kei?iasi.
Kaip jau min?jome anks?iau – kare būna daug netik?tum?. Kariaujan?ios pus?s bando primesti savo s?lygas ir iniciatyv?. Kei?iantis situacijai visada vienu ar kitu būdu reaguoja ? prie?ininko veiksmus.
Vienas i? rus? sprendim? – dron? kamikadzi? spie?iai ? konkre?ius taikinius. Tai n?ra tik desperacijos kupinas veiksmas. Su savimi tai tempia vis? eil? pasekmi?.
Kovai su tokia ork? priemone ir prad?tu masiniu jos naudojimu ukrainie?iai priversti koreguoti oro gynybos sprendimus. Ir tai turi tam tikros ?takos fronte. Kol kas negalime pasakyti, kiek tai atsiliepia kontrpuolimams pietuose ir rytuose, bei gynybai Bachmuto, Zapori??s kryptyse, ta?iau ka?koks poveikis vis d?lto bus juntamas.
Siekiant apsisaugoti nuo dron? kamikadzi? ir smūgi? raketomis ? itin svarbius taikinius, ukrainie?iais priversti dal? oro gynybos priemoni? skirti did?i?j? miest? ir kit? svarbi? objekt? apsaugai.
Galime i?skirti kelet? skirting? priemoni?, kuriomis ukrainie?iai kovoja su ?ia gr?sme:
?ios priemon?s yra vienos pagrindini? kovoje su taikiniais ore. Vakar fiksuotas atvejis kaip keli? policininkai, ginkluoti automatiniais ?autuvais, numu?? dron?. Jis nukrito nepasiek?s taikinio ir sprogo.
Aktyvi? oro gynybos priemoni? panaudojimas – daug resurs? reikalaujantis procesas. Nuolatinis oro erdv?s steb?jimas, oro gynybos priemoni? i?d?stymo planavimas ir koregavimas, priemoni? perdislokavimas ir j? apsauga, amunicijos atsarg? ir logistinis aprūpinimas ir t.t.
Tokiai intensyviai oro erdv?s gynybai, kokia vyksta dabar reikia daug resurs? i? kuri? patys vertingiausi – raketos ir ?audmenys. J? kiekiai n?ra begaliniai, tad intensyvus dron? - kamikadzi? panaudojimas sukelia nema?ai i??ūki? ukrainie?iams. Juo labiau, kad vienas kitas dronas prasprūsta pro oro gynybos apsaug?.
Per pastar?sias kelias paras numu?ta apie 50 toki? dron?, iki 10 dron? pasiek? taikinius. ?spūdingas oro gynybos rezultatas, bet nepakankamas. Atakos vykdomos nuolat ? visus did?iuosius miestus. Ukrainie?i? liaudies i?minti sako – ?Од чорта одхрестишся, а в?д москаля не в?дмолишся“ – nuo velnio atsi?egnoti galima, o nuo maskolio – ne.
Ukrainoje gerai i?vystyta ?sp?jimo apie vykdomas atakas i? oro sistema. ?vesta daug apribojim? ir imtasi priemoni? kaip apsaugoti gyventojus.
Oro pavojaus metu prigesinamos ?viesos gatv?se, parduotuv?se draud?iama aptarnauti klientus (grie?tai laikomasi!). I? karto paskelbus oro pavoj? prekybos centrai evakuoja visus lankytojus, restoranai ir kavin?s u?daromi. Parduotuv?s nuleid?ia ?aliuzes. Gatv?se suma??ja ma?in?. Biur? pastatuose daug kur i?jungiamos ?viesos. Atrodyt? kad tai ne?ymios priemon?s, ta?iau jos padeda bent ka?kiek riboti orientavim?si. Vis? priemoni? visuma ir sudaro kov? su atakomis i? oro.
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ENGLISH VERSION
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Darkening cities
Little news from the front. The Ukrainians are taking great care to hide information about the ongoing counter-offensive in Kherson (from the north). So far, we do not see much Ukrainian progress, only episodic advances.
We are observing the efforts to find the weak points of the Russians. The Ukrainians have mechanized and motorized units in this direction, which would allow them to move quickly after breaking through the defenses.
On the right bank of the Dnipro, we are observing a number of places where the Ukrainians are increasing their concentration of forces. This is evidence of preparations for more serious offensives, but not on the northern side of the occupied territories.
In the Kharkiv-Luhansk area, there is a slight Ukrainian advance. The Russians, for their part, are trying to counter-attack towards Kupiansk and force the Ukrainians to abandon their offensive. This is one of the ways in which the Russians could slow down or stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive. The aim of such a counter-attack is not to seize new territories. It is to buy time to set up defenses.
And if they are lucky, perhaps they could use the counter-attack more widely. We would doubt that very much, because the Russians have clearly shifted their focus to defense.
In this direction, the front is at least 100 kilometers long and difficult to control. The Ukrainians are concentrating forces in several places in this direction for future action.
The situation has not changed much in the direction of Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhya.
There are many surprises in war. The Russians are trying to impose their conditions and initiative. When the situation changes, there is always a reaction to the actions of the opponent in one way or another.
One of the Russian solutions is the use of kamikaze swarms of drones to target specific targets. This is not just an act of desperation. It carries with it a whole series of consequences.
In order to combat such Russian means and the way they are used, the Ukrainians are forced to adjust their air defense solutions. And this has a certain impact on the front line. We cannot yet say to what extent this affects counter-attacks in the south and east, and defenses in the directions of Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhya, but some effect will be felt.
In order to protect against kamikaze drones and missile strikes on critical targets, the Ukrainians have been forced to devote part of their air defense to the protection of major cities and other important facilities.
We can distinguish between several different means by which the Ukrainians are combating this threat:
These are among the most important tools in the fight against airborne targets. Yesterday, a drone was shot down by traffic policemen armed with automatic rifles. It fell short of its target and exploded.
The use of active air defense measures is a resource-intensive process. Continuous air surveillance, planning and adjusting the deployment of air defense assets, redeployment and protection of assets, ammunition stockpiling and logistics, etc.
Intensive air defense of the kind that is currently taking place requires a large number of resources, the most valuable of which are missiles and munitions. The quantities are not infinite, so the intensive use of kamikaze drones poses a number of challenges for the Ukrainians. This is all the more so as one drone after another gets through air defence.
In the last few days, around 50 such drones have been shot down and up to 10 drones have reached their targets. An impressive air defense result, but not sufficient. Attacks are constantly being carried out on all major cities. Ukrainian folk wisdom says: ‘Од чорта одхрестишся, а в?д москаля не в?дмолишся’ – you can get rid of the devil, but not of the Russian.
Ukraine has a well-developed system for warning of air strikes. Many restrictions have been introduced and measures taken to protect the population.
During an air raid alert, street lights are switched off and shops are not allowed to serve customers (strictly enforced!). Supermarkets evacuate all visitors, restaurants and cafes close immediately after an air raid alert. Shops close their blinds. Fewer cars on the streets. Lights are switched off in many office buildings.
These may seem like minor measures, but they help to limit orientation at least to some extent. All of these measures add up to the fight against aerial attacks.
Co-founder @ ADVENTICA | Managing partner @ TALENT? NAMAI | Blogger @ INFOKOMANDA
2 年Updated with English