UKRAINE, status update, 2022-10-16, 7:00

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Deficito kompensavimas

Orkai, siusdami mobikus ? prie?akines linijas, pirmiausia siekia stabilizuoti front?. Jie nekelia sau u?duoties vystyti puolimo, o visa d?mes? koncentruoja ? gynybos linij? i?laikym?. Mobilizacijai prasid?jus rugs?jo 21 dien? jau po keleto dien? karo zonoje pasteb?ti pirmieji mobikai.

Mobik? pasirodymas karo zonoje kol kas niekaip ne?takojo fronto linijos ir veiksm? jame, ta?iau akivaizd?iai suk?l? nema?ai problem? ork? vadovybei.

Yra ?enkl?, kad Chersono kryptyje ukrainie?iai bando vystyti kontrpuolim?, apie kurio s?km? kol kas anksti kalb?ti. Puolan?ius padalinius remia intensyvi artilerijos ugnis ir ukrainie?i? aviacija. Tik?tis, kad gynybos linija bus pralau?ta taip, kaip buvo pralau?ta prie? kelet? savai?i?, nereik?t?. Orkai sukoncentravo paj?gas gynybai ir ?d?jo nema?ai pastang? ?rengdami gynybos pozicijas. Fronto plotis pakankamai didelis – ukrainie?iai tur?t? rasti sprag? gynyboje.

Chersono srityje kontrpuolimo metu ukrainie?iai jau sunaikino tiek T62 tank?, kiek sudaro tank? batalion?, t. y. apie 30 su vir?um. Itin intensyviai ukrainie?iai tebenaikina taikinius rus? gynybos gilumoje ir aktyviai ?dirba“ su logistikos keli? u?kardymu.

Zapory??s ir Bachmuto frontuose prakti?kai be joki? poky?i?. Orkai baiminasi kontrpuolimo Zapory??s kryptyje. Ties Charkivo ir Luhansko sri?i? sandūra ukrainie?iai ir toliau s?kmingai vykdo puolamuosius veiksmus. Per kontrpuolim? netektos kovos technikos kiekius orkai bando kompensuoti gabendami sen? kovos technik? ir spar?iai pildydami dalinius mobikais. ?ioje kryptyje pastebimas ork? artilerijos paj?gum? suma??jimas. Jis nuosekliai degraduoja. ?ia ukrainie?iai turi artilerijos ugnies persvar?.

U?sienio ?valgyb? duomenimis orkai jau sunaudojo did?i?j? dal? tur?t? didelio tikslumo raket? atsarg?. Galime tik sp?lioti, kiek j? dar liko pas rusus. Bet kokiu atveju, akivaizdu, kad j? atsargos spar?iai senka. Kartoti tokias ?akcijas“ kaip pirmadien?, orkai turi labai ma?ai galimybi?. Ilgo nuotolio, ta?iau s?lyginai netaikli? raket? atsargos taip pat itin spar?iai senka. Spar?iai menkstant raket? atsargoms orkai yra priversti ie?koti, kuo tai kompensuoti. 2 realūs būdai: didelis kiekis mobik? ir / arba didelis kiekis kovos technikos. T? jie ir bando daryti. ?iandien baigsime ?ia ukrainie?i? patarle – ?Б?льше в?р сво?м очам, н?ж чужим речам” – labiau tik?k savo akimis nei svetimomis kalbomis”.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Deficit compensation

The Russian first priority in sending mobs to the front lines is to stabilize the front. They do not set themselves the task of developing an offensive, but concentrate instead on maintaining their defensive lines. When the mobilization began on 21 September, the first Mobs were spotted in the war zone a few days later.

The appearance of the mobs in the war zone has not yet had any impact on the front line and its operations, but it has clearly caused the Russian leadership a number of problems.

There are indications that the Ukrainians are trying to develop a counter-offensive in the direction of Kherson, the success of which is too early to say. The attacking units are supported by intense artillery fire and Ukrainian aviation. It should not be expected that the line of defense will be breached in the same way as it was a few weeks ago. The Russians have concentrated their forces on defense and have made considerable efforts to establish defensive positions. The width of the front is large enough - the Ukrainians should be able to find gaps in the defense.

In the Kherson area, the Ukrainians have already destroyed as many T62 tanks as a tank battalion, i.e. about 30 tanks and upwards. The Ukrainians continue to destroy targets deep inside the Russian defenses with particular intensity, and are actively "working" on blocking logistic routes.

On the Zaporizhzhya and Bakhmut fronts, there are practically no changes. The Russians fear a counter-attack in the Zaporizhzhya direction. At the junction of Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts, the Ukrainians continue their successful offensive. The Russians are trying to compensate for the loss of combat equipment during the counter-offensive by transporting old combat equipment and by rapidly replenishing their units with mobs. In this direction there is a notirueduction in the Russian artillery capacity. It is steadily degrading. Here the Ukrainians have the advantage of artillery fire.

According to public announcements by foreign intelligence services, the Russians have already used up most of their stocks of high-precision missiles. We can only speculate how many are left with the Russians. In any case, it is clear that their stocks are rapidly depleting. The Russians have very little chance of repeating their "actions" of Monday. Stocks of long-range but relatively inexpensive missiles are also depleting very rapidly. With rapidly depleting stocks of missiles, the Russians are forced to find ways to compensate. There are two realistic ways: large numbers of mobs and/or large numbers of combat equipment. That is what they are trying to do. Today we will end with this Ukrainian proverb - "Б?льше в?р сво?м очам, н?ж чужим речам" - "Believe your eyes more than you believe in other people's tongues".

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