UKRAINE, status update, 2022-09-24; 10:15

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Pastiprinimo naikinimas

Mobilizacija orkistane ir toliau vyksta pilnu tempu. ?is procesas primena itin blogai sure?isuot? cirk?. Ne?tik?tina, kiek daug apie kariuomen?, valstyb? ir ?mones gali pasakyti ?is procesas.

Dalis bijan?i? mobilizacijos ver?iasi per sienas ? visas ?manomas puses. L?ktuvais, ma?inomis, laivais, traukiniais ar p?s?iomis ne?a kuda?i? i? putinstano. Jau fiksuota daugiau nei 10 padegt? karini? komisariat?. Dalis panikuojan?i? ie?ko būd? kaip save su?aloti, kad nereikt? kariauti.

Tuo tarpu kita dalis vyksta ? mobilizavimo punktus ir jungiasi prie karan vykstan?i? ork?. Girti, ?leivi, rai?i, ligoti – vyksta visi. Kaip pasak? viena orko motina, tegul va?iuoja kariauti, gal gr?? su?eistas, nes ?ia jis numirs nuo g?rimo. Paantrinsime ukrainie?i? patarle – ?В с?м’? не без виродка ? – ?eimoje ne be urodo“. Tik urod? ?eimose gerokai daugiau nei normali?. ?tai toks kontingentas vyksta ? kar?. Ne visi, ta?iau toki? bus daug.

Nei mobilizacijos punktai, nei daliniai visi?kai nepasiruo?? mobilizacijai. Visi mobilizavimo procesai primena absoliut? chaos?. Maitinimu nepasirūpinta, viet? miegojimui n?ra, tualet? nepakanka, nekalbant jau apie prausyklas. Nieko naujo – ?2-oji pagal galingum? pasaulio kariuomen?“.

Kol kas fronte nepasteb?tas kari? pagaus?jimas. Visi ?enklai rodo, kad naujieji orkai fronte pasirodys pakankamai greitai, be jokio parengimo. Tai bus pirmoji banga. Jau fiksuotas, ta?iau putinstane visi?kai slepiamas faktas apie vieno i? pirm?j? e?elon? su naujaisiais orkais nuvertim? putinstano teritorijoje. E?elono, kuris vyko ? Ukrain?. Patvirtint? duomen? n?ra, ta?iau skelbiama apie didel? ?uvusi?j? ir su?eist?j? skai?i?.

Su smalsumu steb?sime kaip vyksta mobilizacija ir koki? ?tak? karo veiksmams ji tur?s.

Na o fronte... geros naujienos. Ties Bachmutu visos ork? atakos atmu?amos, netgi pavyko ?iek tiek atkovoti prarast? pozicij?. Ties Limanu orkams ?iknos vis labiau kaista. Fiksuojame s?kming? ukrainie?i? puolim? ir akivaizd?iai besiformuojant? Limano apsupim?.

Abejojame ar pavyks pilnai apsupti Liman?, grei?iausiai ka?kuriuo metu orkai visk? mes ir b?gs kiek kojos ne?a. Ta?iau pats manevras jau akivaizd?iai matomas ir jis s?kmingas, ork? gynyba pralau?ta. Tai, apie k? min?jome vakar, kad i??jimas link atviresn?s vietov?s palankus ukrainie?iams, pasitvirtino.

Nereik?t? tik?tis tokio paties puolimo grei?io kaip buvo did?iosios kontratakos ties Charkovu metu. ?ia tur?tume matyti pakankamai stabil? temp? ir s?kming? puolim?, kurio metu ukrainie?iai gerokai daugiau d?mesio skirs flang? apsaugai nei tai dar? anks?iau.

Galime dr?siai sakyti, kad s?lygas tolimesnio puolimo vystymui ukrainie?iai jau susikūr?. Po ?i? s?lyg? susikūrimo jau fiksuojame papildom? paj?gum? pritraukim? puolimo vystymui, rezerv? perk?lim? ar?iau fronto linijos.

Dar vienas svarbus elementas ?iame kontrpuolime - tai ukrainie?i? s?km? art?jant link Lisi?iansko, d?l ko Limano grupuotei kyla dar didesn? apsupimo gr?sm?. S?km?s atveju ukrainie?iai gal?t? gerokai apkartinti ork? atsitraukimo manevr?.

Chersono srityje itin s?kmingai kovojama su ork? bandymu aprūpinti de?iniajame Dnipro krante esan?ias paj?gas. 24 valandas per par? visi ork? bandymai pritraukti kovos technik?, aprūpinim? ir priemones yra atakuojami. Ukrainie?iai nei akimirkai nepalieka ramyb?je ork?, o pastarieji vis bando ir bando. ?ia nuolat dega benzinve?iai, tankai, ?arvuo?iai. Gerai yra tai, kad did?ioji dalis ?i? priemoni? sunaikinama iki patekimo ? front?, tad tiesiogiai negali padaryti ?alos ukrainie?i? paj?goms.

Ukrainie?iams itin aktualus tapo Irano orkams perduot? dron? naudojimas prie Ukrainos paj?gas ir objektus. Tai gali tapti rimta gr?sme, jeigu ukrainie?iai nei?moks su jais kovoti. Pana?u, kad ukrainie?iai greitai perpranta ?i? ginkl? naudojimo subtilybes ir vien per vakar, ukrainie?i? duomenimis, numu?? 6 tokius dronus. Bent dviej? toki? dron? numu?imas fiksuotas vaizdo ?ra?ais.

Gali būti, kad ?i? dron? naudojimas orkams nepasiteisins, ta?iau, kol kas, jie kelia rimt? gr?sm?, bent jau taktiniame lygmenyje. Bet kuriuo atveju galime neabejoti – ukrainie?iai greitai ras sprendim? kaip eliminuoti ?i? gr?sm?.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Elimination of reinforcement

Mobilisation in Russians continues at full speed. The process resembles a well-orchestrated circus. It is incredible how much this process can tell us about the army, the state and the people.

Some of those who are afraid of mobilisation are rushing across the borders in all directions. They are running away by plane, car, boat, train or on foot. More than 10 military commissariats have already been set on fire. Some of those panicking are looking for ways to mutilate themselves so that they do not have to go to war.

Meanwhile, others are going to mobilisation points and joining the Russian forces in the war. The drunk, the sick, the crippled, the sick – everybody goes. As one Russian mother said, let him go to war, maybe he will come back wounded, because here he will die of drinking otherwise. To quote a Ukrainian proverb, ‘В с?м’? не без виродка’ – a family is not without freaks. Only there are far more freaks in families than normal ones. That is the contingent going to war. Not all of them, but there will be many.

Neither the mobilisation points nor the units are fully prepared for mobilisation. The whole mobilisation process is like absolute chaos. There are no meals, no places to sleep, not enough toilets, let alone washrooms. Nothing new – ‘the world’s 2nd most powerful army’.

So far, there has been no increase in the number of troops on the front line. All the signs are that the new troops will appear at the front soon enough, without any preparation. It will be the first wave. The fact that one of the first echelons of the new troops was overturned on Russian territory has already been recorded, but that information is suppressed. The echelon that was heading for Ukraine. There are no confirmed figures, but there are reports of a number of deaths and injuries.

And on the front line… good news. At Bachmut, all the Russian attacks are being repulsed, and we have even managed to regain some lost positions.?At Liman, the position for the Russians are getting hotter. We see a successful Ukrainian attack and a Liman encirclement clearly forming.

We doubt that Ukrainians will be able to completely encircle Liman, most likely at some point the Russians will give up and run as fast as they can. However, the maneuver itself is already clearly visible and successful, the Russian defenses are broken. What we said yesterday, that going out towards more open terrain favors the Ukrainians, has been confirmed.

We should not expect the same speed of attack as during the great counter-attack at Kharkiv. Here we should see a fairly steady pace and a successful offensive in which the Ukrainians will concentrate much more on flank protection than they have done previously.

We can safely say that the conditions for the development of a further offensive are already in place for the Ukrainians. After these conditions have been created, we are already witnessing the attraction of additional capabilities for the development of the offensive, the redeployment of reserves closer to the front line.

Another important element in this counter-offensive is the success of the Ukrainians in their approach to Lisichiansk, which puts the Liman group under even greater threat of encirclement. If successful, the Ukrainians could significantly impede the Russian retreat.

In Kherson, the Russian attempt to resupply the forces on the right bank of the Dnipro has been successfully repelled. 24 hours a day, all attempts by the Russians to bring in combat equipment, supplies and means are under attack. The Ukrainians do not leave the Russians alone for a moment, and the Russians keep trying and trying. Petrol trucks, tanks and armored vehicles are constantly on fire here. The good thing is that most of these vehicles are destroyed before they reach the front, so that they cannot cause direct damage to the Ukrainian forces.

The use of drones handed over by the Iranians to Russia to attack Ukrainian forces and facilities has become a particular issue for the Ukrainians. This could become a serious threat if the Ukrainians do not learn to deal with them. The Ukrainians seem to be quickly learning the subtleties of the use of these weapons and yesterday alone, according to Ukrainian data, they shot down 6 such drones. The shooting down of at least two of these drones was captured on video.

The use of these drones by the Russians may not prove to be successful, but for the time being they pose a serious threat, at least at the tactical level. In any case, we can be sure that the Ukrainians will soon find a solution to eliminate this threat.

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