UKRAINE, status update, 2022-09-18; 10:30

ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below

Atsarg? pildymo var?ybos

Karas Ukrainoje nenutrūksta nei akimirkai. Per vis? laikotarp? nuo ork? inicijuoto karo prad?ios Ukrainoje nebuvo nei vienos paliaub? dienos. Tai tik ?rodo, kad orkai vis? ?? laikotarp? kariavo su mintimi apie visi?k? karin? s?km?.

Kaip parodo ?iandienin? situacija, tai orkams nelabai pavyksta. Tai viena i? prie?as?i? kod?l jau gerus 3 - 4 m?nesius ukrainie?iai nesileid?ia ? kalbas apie paliaubas arba derybas. Ukrainie?iai puikiai ?ino i?mint?, kuri keliauja ?imtme?iais patarli? pavidalu – ?На словах милост? просить, а за халявою н?ж носить“ – ? veid? pasigail?jimo pra?o, o u? nugaros peil? laiko.

Ukrainie?iai puikiai suvokia kaip vystosi karo veiksm? dinamika fronte ir kaip greitai orkai netenka savo paj?gum?. Galime gin?ytis, kas yra greitai. Mūs? vertinimu per 6 karo m?nesius prarasti tok? kiek? parengt? kari? ir moderniausios kovos technikos yra ypa? didelis greitis, atsi?velgiant ? tai, kad kar? istorija rodo, jog karai vyksta met? metais. Itin greitai praradus paj?gumus ka?kuo juos tenka kompensuoti.

K? matome dabar, kas turi ?takos karo veiksm? eigai. Orkai turi stipriai sumenkusias ?turmo / desanto paj?gas, modernizuot? tank? ir kovos p?stinink? ma?in? likutis yra labai menkas, prie?l?ktuvin?s gynybos, radar? ir moderni? radioelektronin?s kovos priemoni? efektyvumas smuko d?l nuolatini? nuostoli?, ypa? palei front?.

P?stininkus kei?ia mobikai, kaliniai ir savanoriai apie kuri? geb?jim? kariauti n?ra nei kalbos. Prie to dar prid?kime itin spar?iai besikaupian?ias problemas su artilerijos sviediniais, susid?vin?iais vamzd?iai ir t.t.

Sklinda nepatvirtinti duomenys, kad orkai amunicijos atsargas pildys i? ?iaur?s Kor?jos ?sigytais ?audmenimis, bandys gauti artilerijos pabūkl?. Jau fiksuojami pirmieji Irano perduot? dron? - kamikadzi? panaudojimo atvejai prie? ukrainie?ius.

?ie dronai situacijos fronte nepakeis, ta?iau ?takos tur?s. Juos orkai naudoja prie? ukrainie?i? savaeig?s artilerijos priemones. Fiksuoti keli s?kmingi panaudojimo atvejai.

Orkai taip pat bando gauti raket?, kurios gal?t? papildyti ?enkliai sumenkusias atsargas. ?valgyba vyksta kiek ?manoma pla?iau, pradedant ?iaur?s Kor?ja ir baigiant Indija. Kol kas pana?u, kad nelabai s?kmingai. Bet kuriuo atveju kalba tur?t? eiti apie tūkstan?ius vienet?.

Tad galime konstatuoti, kad ?Antroji pasaulio kariuomen?“ pasirodo besanti nusmurgusi, modernios ginkluot?s neturinti ir negebanti pasigaminti kariuomen?, ?siv?lusi ? konflikt? su Ukraina, dabar yra priversti vaik??ioti su i?tiesta ranka ir pra?yti i?maldos.

Ukrainie?i? paj?gumai, atvirk??iai, stipriai auga. Kalbame apie gerokai didesn? parengt? kari? skai?i?, kovos technikos paj?gumus, motyvacij? ir nuolatin? bei nenutrūkstam? amunicijos ir ginkluot?s tiekim?.

Tai viena prie?as?i? kod?l ukrainie?iai sugeb?jo surengti ?aibi?k? kontratak?. Pasteb?sime, kad viso karo metu orkai nei karto, i?skyrus pirm?sias chaoso kupinas dienas, nesugeb?jo pralau?ti ir i?vystyti galingo puolimo.

Labiausiai d?l to kalta net ne ginkluot?, o vad? geb?jimai koordinuoti skirting? padalini? veiksmus, planuoti operacijas ir jas ?gyvendinti.

Ar galime ateityje tik?tis toki? pat greit? ukrainie?i? kontratak?? Galbūt, ta?iau daug vilties ? tai nededame. Orkai bando ?enkliai stiprinti gynybos linijas. Problema ta, kad nors jos ir bus gerai ?tvirtintos, ta?iau jos stacionarios, orkai nebemoka vesti mobilios gynybos, tai k? labai s?kmingai viso karo metu daro ukrainie?iai.

Dabartinis ukrainie?i? d?mesys sutelktas ? tolimesnio puolimo link Luhansko prielaid? susikūrimui. T? jie daro s?kmingai, jau netolimoje ateityje galime pamatyti daugiau agresyvaus ukrainie?i? veikimo. ?ia orkai susidurs su labai didel?mis dilemomis, kadangi frontas pernelyg platus, o turim? paj?gum? per ma?ai.

Chersono srityje ir toliau pama?u ukrainie?iai grau?iasi ? priek?. Nedideliu grei?iu, bet stabiliai, tai labai svarbu. Pasirodo ?enkl?, kad orkai bando susikurti atsitraukimo i? Chersono srities galimyb?. Protingas vadas visada turi pasiruo??s kelis planus, tad matyt po Iziumo grupuot?s b?gimo orkai suvok?, kad gali tekti b?gti ir i? Chersono krypties.

Donbase orkai ir toliau puola kvailai tiesiog kakton ? ukrainie?i? pozicijas. Rezultatas d?sningas – nes?kmingai.

Zapori??s kryptyje s?lygin? tyla, nors veiksmas ir ?ia vyksta. Ar tik nebus prie? audr??

____________________________

ENGLISH VERSION

Stockpiling competition

The war in Ukraine does not stop even for a moment. There has not been a single day of ceasefire in Ukraine since the beginning of the war initiated by the Russians. This only proves that they have fought with the idea of total military success throughout this period.?

As today’s situation shows, the Russians have not been very successful. This is one of the reasons why the Ukrainians have not been talking about a ceasefire or negotiations for a good 3-4 months. Ukrainians are well aware of the wisdom that has travelled down the centuries in the form of proverbs – ‘Na словах милост? просить, а за халявою н?ж носить’ – one asks for mercy in the face, but keeps a knife in one’s back.

The Ukrainians are well aware of the dynamics of the war on the front and how quickly the Russians are losing their capabilities. We can argue about what is fast. In our estimation, to lose such a large number of trained soldiers and state-of-the-art combat equipment in 6 months of war is extremely fast, given that the history of wars shows that wars take place over years. When capabilities are lost extremely quickly, something has to be done to compensate for them.

What we are seeing now affects the conduct of hostilities. The Russians have a severely reduced assault/landing force, the balance of modernized tanks and infantry fighting vehicles is very low, the effectiveness of air defense, radar and modern radio-electronic warfare has declined due to the continuous losses, especially along the front.?

The Infantry is being replaced by mobs, prisoners and volunteers whose ability to fight is beyond question. Add to this the problems with artillery shells, worn-out tubes, etc., which are accumulating very rapidly.

There are rumors that the Russians will replenish their ammunition stocks with ammunition purchased from North Korea and will try to obtain artillery guns. The first cases of the use of kamikaze drones handed over by Iran against Ukrainians have already been recorded.?

These drones will not change the situation on the front, but they will have an impact. They are being used by the Russians against Ukrainian self-propelled artillery. Several successful deployments have been documented.?

The Russians are also trying to obtain missiles to replenish their significantly depleted stocks. Efforts are being made as widely as possible, from North Korea to India. So far, it does not seem to have been very successful. In any case, we should be talking about thousands of units.?

We can therefore conclude that the ‘Second World Army’ is turning out to be a decrepit army, devoid of modern weaponry and unable to produce it, which is involved in a conflict with Ukraine, and is now being forced to walk around with an outstretched hand and beg for alms.?

The Ukrainian capacity, on the contrary, is growing strongly. We are talking about a much greater number of trained troops, combat equipment capabilities, motivation and a constant and uninterrupted supply of ammunition and weapons.?

This is one of the reasons why the Ukrainians were able to mount a lightning counter-attack. It will be noted that at no time during the entire war, except for the first days of chaos, were the Russians able to break through and develop a powerful offensive.?

This was not even due to weaponry, but to the ability of commanders to coordinate the actions of different units, to plan operations and to implement them.?

Can we expect the same rapid Ukrainian counter-attacks in the future? Perhaps, but we do not hold out much hope. The Russians are trying to significantly strengthen their defense lines. The problem is that, although they will be well fortified, they are stationary, and the Russians no longer know how to conduct mobile defenses, something the Ukrainians have been doing very successfully throughout the war.?

The current Ukrainian focus Is on creating the preconditions for a further offensive towards Luhansk. They are doing this successfully, and we may see more aggressive Ukrainian action in the near future. Here the Russians will face a very big dilemma, because the front is too wide and the available forces too small.?

In Kherson, the Ukrainians continue to slowly advance. At a low speed, but steadily, this is very important. There are signs that the Russians are trying to create a retreat from Kherson. A wise commander always has several plans ready, so apparently after the escape of the Izumo group, the Russians have realized that they might have to flee from the direction of Kherson.?

In Donbas, the Russians continue to attack stupidly just in the direction of the Ukrainian positions. The result is predictable – to no avail.?

In the direction of Zaporizhzhya there is relative silence, although action is still taking place here. Will it not be before the storm?

#ukraine #war #update