UKRAINE, status update, 2022-09-14; 7:30

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Defekalizacija

Jeigu Chersono kontrpuolimo orkai tik?josi ir lauk?, tai Charkivo, akivaizd?iai, buvo didelis netik?tumas.

Kare netik?tumo faktorius yra tarp t?, kurie gali nulemti karo eig?. ?iuo atveju netik?tumo faktorius parod? kelis esminius dalykus:

• Ork? ?valgyba visi?kai pramiegojo ukrainie?i? pasiruo?im? kontrpuolimui
• Fronto padaliniai nesugeb?jo u?fiksuoti ukrainie?i? ?valgybos veiksm?
• Okupant? gretose visi?ka s?veikos betvark? tarp ?vairi? padalini?: separatist?, reguliari?j? paj?g?, nacionalin?s gvardijos, priva?i? kompanij? ir pan.
• Ukrainie?iai turi gerus planavimo paj?gumus visuose lygiuose
• Orkai rimtai nevertina ukrainie?i? karini? paj?gum?
• Agresoriaus reagavimo planai paruo?ti nekokybi?kai
• Orkai neturi pakankamo kiekio efektyvi? ry?i? sistem?.

Yra gerokai daugiau pasteb?jim? apie tai, kokia reali situacija abiejose kariaujan?iose pus?se.

Po Charkivo kontrpuolimo orkai atsitrauk? gerokai toliau nei buvo būtina. Tai panikos ir neparuo?tos e?elonuotos gynybos ?enklai.

Ukrainie?iai per kelias dienas ne tik sugeb?jo prakti?kai visi?kai i?sivalyti vis? u?imt? teritorij?, bet ir persik?l? per Oskil up? tam, kad gal?t? t?sti puolamuosius veiksmus. Galime dr?siai konstatuoti, kad ukrainie?iai pasiruo?? net kelis placdarmus tolimesniems puolamiesiems veiksmas.

?iuo konkre?iu atveju ukrainie?iams reikia i?naudoti iniciatyvos persvar? ir prat?sti kontrpuolim?.

Vertinant ork? pani?ko atsitraukimo greit? ir geografin? vietov?, ?iuo metu galime teigti, kad orkai turi kelet? galimybi? naujos gynybos linijos ?rengimui. Artimiausia efektyvios gynybos linija gal?t? būti ?rengta ma?daug 80 - 100 km nuo Oskil up?s, ties kuria dabar ?sitvirtino ukrainie?iai. Tai Biloluck – Starobilsk – Severodoneck. Antroji gynybos linija gal?t? būti jau ties Luhansku, anks?iau okupuotos Donbaso teritorijos ?iaurin? riba.

Gynybos paruo?imui orkai neturi daug laiko, o netgi ir j? paruo?us bus itin daug i??ūki?. Reikia tur?ti omenyje, kad atsitrauk? padaliniai prarado prakti?kai visas amunicijos ir aprūpinimo atsargas, dal? toki? paj?gum?, daug kovos technikos ir ginkluot?s. I? esm?s atsitraukusios paj?gos n?ra paj?gios efektyviai kovoti su ukrainie?iais.

Tada dabar mes matome dar vien? parengiam?j? kontrpuolimo etap?. Pats kontrpuolimas gali būti visi?kai kitoks nei mat?me iki ?iol. D?kinga tai, kad visos prielaidos s?kmingam kontrpuolimui jau yra.

Chersono srityje ukrainie?iai ir toliau pama?u grau?iasi pirmyn. Yra viet? kur orkams kyla realus apsupimo pavojus. Artimiausio m?nesio b?gyje galima pamatyti daugiau ?geros valios gest?“ i? ork? pus?s. ?ia kovos intensyvios, klampios ir sunkios. Suprantant ukrainie?i? sumanym? ir vertinant realijas tik laiko klausimas, kada ukrainie?iai u?ims de?in?j? Dnipro up?s krant?. Defekalizacijos procesas bus t?siamas. Neveltui ukrainie?i? patarl? sako – ?Краще потоп у хат?, н?ж москаль“ – geriau namie potvynis nei maskolius.

Donbase orkai stengiasi i?laikyti spaudim? ties Bachmutu. Ukrainie?iai s?kmingai atremia okupant? puolimus. Taip, ka?kiek minimaliai orkai sugeba pajud?ti, ta?iau j? progresas toks minimalus, kad apie tai neverta diskutuoti.

Zapori??s kryptyje orkai persigand?, visur sklando gandai, kad ukrainie?iai ruo?ia kontrpuolim?. Streso lygis ork? vad? tarpe pakilo iki maksimalaus. Ork? kariniai blogeriai prisijung? prie būrio trimituotoj?, kad neparuo?ta gynyba, ukrainie?iai smogs, manevruos, pralau? gynyb? ir pana?iai.

Stebime ukrainie?i? veiksmus, smogiamosios grupuot?s formavim?. Pasiliksime ties anks?iau i?sakyta nuomone ir kol kas nespekuliuosime.

Pastaruoju metu matome tai, ko ir reik?jo tik?tis. Orkai nesugeba kariauti jeigu veiksmai vyksta ne pagal plan?. Tuomet viskas griūna, nesugebama suvaldyti situacijos ne tik fronte, bet ir logistikoje, valdyme. I? esm?s visose ork? sferose ?sivyrauja chaosas ir neu?tikrintumas.

Viename i? savo ?ra?? min?jome apie esminius karini? filosofij? skirtumus tarp ork? ir Ukrainos kariuomeni?. ?iame karo etape būtent tai ir lemia s?km? ukrainie?i? paj?goms. Lankstumas, mobilumas, atsakomyb?s ir veiksm? laisv?s delegavimas vadams ir lemia ukrainie?i? geb?jim? adaptuotis, inovuoti ir greitai reaguoti ? situacijos poky?ius fronte ir u? jo rib?.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Cleanup

If Kherson’s counter-attack was expected and anticipated by the Russians, Kharkiv’s was evidently a big surprise.?

In war, the surprise factor is among those that can determine the course of the war. In this case, the surprise factor showed several key points:

• Russian strategic intelligence missed the Ukrainian preparations for a counter-attack
• Russian units at the front also failed to detect Ukrainian intelligence activities
• There is a complete lack of interaction within the ranks of the occupiers between the various units: separatists, regular forces, national guard, private companies, etc.
• The Ukrainians have good planning capabilities at all levels
• Russians do not take Ukrainian military capabilities seriously
• Aggressor response plans are of poor quality
• Russians do not have a sufficient number of effective communication systems.

There are many more observations about the reality of the situation on both sides of the war.?

After the Kharkiv counter-attack, the Russians retreated much further than necessary. These are signs of panic and unprepared echelon defense.?

The Ukrainians not only managed to clear almost all the territory they had captured in a few days, but also moved across the Oskil river to continue their offensive. We can safely state that the Ukrainians have even prepared several bridgeheads for further offensive action.?

In this particular case, the Ukrainians need to seize the initiative and continue their counter-offensive.?

Considering the speed of the Russians retreat and the geographical location, it can be argued that the Russia currently have a number of options for the construction of a new line of defense. The nearest effective line of defense could be established some 80-100 km from the Oskil River, where the Ukrainians are now entrenched. This is the Biloluck – Starobilsk – Severodonetsk area. A second line of defense could already be located at Luhansk, the northern border of the formerly occupied territory of Donbas.?

The Russiana do not have much time to prepare the defenses, and even once they are ready they will be very challenging. It should be borne in mind that the retreating units have lost practically all their ammunition and supply stocks, some of their capabilities, and much of their combat equipment and weapons. In essence, the retreating forces are not capable of fighting the Ukrainians effectively.?

Then we are now seeing another preparatory phase of the counter-offensive. The counter-offensive itself may be completely different from what we have seen so far. The good news is that all the preconditions for a successful counter-offensive are in place.?

In Kherson, the Ukrainians continue to slowly advance. There are places where the Russians are in real danger of being surrounded. More “gestures of goodwill” from the Russians will be seen in the coming month. The fighting there is intense, viscous and difficult. Understanding the Ukrainian idea and looking at the realities, it is only a matter of time before the Ukrainians take the right bank of the Dnipro River. The process of cleanup will continue. It is not for nothing that a Ukrainian proverb says: ‘Краще потоп у хат?, н?ж москаль’ – ‘Better a flood at home than a Moscowich.

In Donbas, the Russians are trying to keep the pressure on Bakhmut. Ukrainians are successfully repelling the invaders’ attacks. Yes, the Russians are making some minimal progress, but their progress is so minimal that it is not worth discussing.?

In the direction of Zaporizhzhya, the Russiana are frightened, and there are rumors everywhere that the Ukrainians are preparing a counter-attack. The level of stress among the orc commanders has risen to a maximum. Russian military bloggers have joined the band of trumpeters, saying that the defense is not ready, the Ukrainians will strike, maneuver, break through the defenses and so on.?

We are monitoring the Ukrainian actions, the formation of a strike group. We will stick to our earlier opinion and will not speculate for the time being.?

What we have seen lately is what we should have expected. Russians are not capable of fighting if things do not go according to plan. Then everything falls apart, the situation is out of control, not only on the front line, but also in logistics and management. Chaos and insecurity prevail in virtually all Russian spheres.?

In one of our posts, we mentioned the fundamental differences in military philosophies between the Russians and Ukrainian armies. At this stage of the war, it is precisely this that determines the success of the Ukrainian forces. Flexibility, mobility, delegation of responsibility and freedom of action to commanders is what determines the ability of the Ukrainians to adapt, innovate and react quickly to changes in the situation at the front and beyond.

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