UKRAINE, status update, 2022-08-30; 8:40

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

?kvalas

Pastaroji para pagaliau atne?? d?iugi? naujien?. I? anksto pasakome, kad anksti ?v?sti, ta?iau pirmieji ukrainie?i? veiksmai nuteikia labai pozityviai.

Kas ?vyko per par?. Charkovo srityje orkai bando kontratakuoti tam, kad kuo daugiau ukrainie?i? paj?g? būt? sukaustytos toje kryptyje.

Donbase orkai puol? banga po bangos, dideliu intensyvumu, ta?iau s?lyginai menkomis paj?gomis, tad visos atakos buvo atremtos. Viskas k? gavo orkai tai nuostoliai - tiek kovos technikos, tiek gyvosios j?gos.

Savo ruo?tu ukrainie?iai kontratakavo ties Iziumu, Zapori??s kryptyje. Dabar jau galime pasakyti, kad kiekviena kontratakos kryptis ?gyvendina atskirus Ukrainos kariuomen?s i?keltus tikslus. Kai kur tai prie?o sukaustymas, kai kur sekinimas, kai kurs d?mesio nukreipimas ir apgaulingi veiksmai.

Ta?iau patys ?domiausi veiksmai prasid?jo Chersono kryptyje. Prie? par? nakties metu orkai buvo u?kloti dideliu kiekiu artilerijos, pary?iais aviacijos antskryd?iai ir prasid?jo ukrainie?i? kontrataka.

Ukrainos kariuomen? visi?kai nesidalina informacija apie eig?, s?kmes ir nes?kmes. Taigi, k? pavyko surinkti ir kas ?inoma ?iuo metu.

Dienos metu puolimas buvo vykdomas beveik palei vis? Chersono srities front?. Keliose vietose ukrainie?iai ?aibi?kai pralau?? pirm?sias gynybos linijas ir t?s? s?km?s vystym?.

Sunku nustatyti pagrindin? puolimo krypt?. Toki? puolim? metu visada yra viena prioritetin? puolimo kryptis. Kitos kryptys taip pat ?gyvendina tam tikras u?duotis tarp kuri? yra ir prie?o d?mesio nukreipimas. Orkai bet kuriuo atveju tur?jo naudoti rezervus. Kai juos panaudoji vienoje kryptyje, j? nebegauni ka?kur kitoje.

Pana?u, kad ukrainie?iai demonstruoja auk??iausi? meistri?kum? mū?io lauke. Puolim? par?m? visos galimos ugnies paramos priemon?s: aviacija, artilerija,??spūdingas smūgi? kiekis Himars ir analogi?komis sistemomis.

Net pavargome fiksuoti visas smūgi? vietas, kurias atakavo ukrainie?iai ork? gynybos gilumoje. Mūs? skai?iavimais per pastar?j? par? ukrainie?iai s?kmingai atakavo daugiau nei 10 ork? vadavie?i?, daugiau nei 10 amunicijos sand?li?, keliasde?imt ork? susikaupimo viet?, tiltus, pontoninius tiltus ir perk?las, gausyb? prie?l?ktuvin?s gynybos sistem?.

Tok? smūgi? kiek? galima prilyginti armagedonui, kuomet ukrainie?iai sukaup? ir pasitelk? mil?ini?k? ugnies gali?. I? ?ios paros smūgi? tikslumo galime daryti u?tikrint? i?vad?, kad ukrainie?iai turi labai daug aki? ork? okupuotose teritorijose, taikini? identifikavimo ir patvirtinimo sistem?. Kombinuotos ?valgybos priemon?s leido pasiruo?ti tokiam sud?tingam plano ?gyvendinimui.

Tokiu būdu ukrainie?iai sudav? nokdauno smūg? visai valdymo, prie?l?ktuvin?s gynybos sistemai. Ork? gretose tur?jo kilti mil?ini?ka panika. Tam tikras jos aprai?kas buvo galima steb?ti nakties metu.

Pary?iais pasirod? prane?imai apie kovos veiksmus ?alia Chersono. Mums sunku patik?ti tokia greita veiksm? eiga, tad ?iek tiek rezervuota i vertiname ?i? situacij?. Tokio karo metu s?kmingas puolimas per par? sudaryt? 3-5 kilometrus. Jeigu daugiau, tai neabejotinai didel? s?km?. Ar gal?jo ukrainie?iai s?kmingai i?vystyti puolim? iki pat Chersono, t. y. 20 – 25 kilometrus?.. Taip, ta?iau tai prilygt? fantastiniam scenarijui ir Blitzkrygui. Nakt? per CNN pateikta informacija apie kelet? u?imt? gyvenvie?i? leid?ia daryti prielaid?, kad tok scenarijus gal?jo ?vykti. Laikome kum??ius, kad taip ir būt? nutik?.

Artimiausios kelios dienos suteiks ai?kesn? vaizd?, kas ir kaip vyksta fronte. Bet kuriuo atveju jau galime daryti i?vad?, kad ukrainie?i? puolimas vyksta intensyviai, koordinuotai, gerai atlikti nam? darbai.

Pastarosios paros ?vykiai vyksta geriausiai pasirinktu metu. Art?ja ruduo, veikti reikia u?tikrintai ir greitai. Prasid?jo bendros putinstano ir Kinijos kariuomeni? pratybos, tad greitai reaguoti ir ?ias paj?gas permesti orkai neturi joki? galimybi?. 3-ias armijos korpusas pakeliui ? karo veiksm? zon? ir jo panaudojim? orkai tur?s per?iūr?ti, nes neabejotinai keisis planai. Paraly?iuotos gele?inkeli? linijos neleis greitai reaguoti permetant kovos technik? ir karius. Sunaikinti tiltai per Dnipr? atkirto ? sp?stus vis? Chersono grupuot?.

Tad intensyviai steb?sime karo veiksm? eig? artimiausiomis dienomis. Palink?kime s?km?s ukrainie?iams. Ta proga, tradici?kai, patarl? – ?Под?лена рад?сть подв?йна, а под?лене горе вдв?ч? менше“ – pasidalintas d?iaugsmas – dvigubas, pasidalintas skausmas – dukart ma?esnis.

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ENGLISH VERSION

A storm

The last day brought some good news for Ukrainians. It is too early to celebrate, but the first actions of the Ukrainians are encouraging.

What happened during the day.?In the Kharkiv area, the Russians were trying to counterattack in order to pin down as many Ukrainian forces as possible in that direction.

In Donbass, the Russians attacked wave after wave, with great intensity, but with relatively small forces, so all attacks were repulsed.?All what the Russians got were losses – both combat equipment and manpower.

?In turn, the Ukrainians counterattacked at Izium, in the direction of Zaporizhzhia.?Each direction of the counterattack implements separate goals set by the Ukrainian army.?In some cases it is the entrapment of the enemy, in some cases it is weakening of it, in other cases it will create distraction and deceitful actions.

But the most interesting actions began in the direction of Kherson.?A day before, during the night, the Russians were covered by a large amount of artillery, in the morning air raids and the counterattack of the Ukrainians began.

The Ukrainian military does not share information about progress, successes and failures at all.?So, here is little what is known at the moment.

During the day, the offensive was carried out almost along the entire front of the Kherson region.?In several places, the Ukrainians broke through the first lines of defense in a flash and continued the development of success.

?It is difficult to determine the main direction of the attack.?In such attacks, there is always one priority line of attack.?Other directions also carry out certain tasks, among which is directing the attention of the enemy.?Russians had to use reserves.?Once you use them in one direction, you don’t get them anywhere else.

The Ukrainians seem to demonstrate the ultimate in battlefield prowess.?The attack was supported by all possible means of fire support: aviation, artillery, an impressive number of strikes by Himars and similar systems.

?We even got tired of recording all the hit points that the Ukrainians attacked in the depth of the Russian defense.?According to our calculations, over the past day, the Ukrainians have successfully attacked more than 10 Russian headquarters, more than 10 ammunition warehouses, dozens of Russian concentration points, bridges, pontoons, and a large number of anti-aircraft defense systems.

?Such a number of strikes can be compared to Armageddon, when the Ukrainians accumulated and used enormous firepower.?From the accuracy of today’s strikes, we can safely conclude that the Ukrainians have a very large number of eyes in the occupied territories, a system for identifying and confirming targets.?Combined intelligence tools made it possible to prepare for the implementation of such a complex plan.

?In this way, the Ukrainians dealt a knockdown blow to the entire Russian system of control and anti-aircraft defense.?There must have been a great panic among the Russians.?Some of its manifestations could be observed at night.

?In the morning, there were reports of combat operations near Kherson.?It is hard for us to believe such a fast course of action, so we are a bit reserved in our assessment of this situation.?During such a war, a successful attack would cover 3-5 kilometers per day.?If more, it is definitely a big success.?Could the Ukrainians have successfully developed an attack all the way to Kherson, i.e.?i.e.?20-25 kilometers?.. Yes, but it would be equivalent to a fantasy scenario and Blitzkryg.?Overnight CNN coverage of several occupied settlements suggests that such a scenario could have occurred.?Time will tell.

?The next few days will provide a clearer picture of what and how is happening on the front.?In any case, we can already conclude that the Ukrainian attack is an intense, coordinated, well done homework.

?The events of the last day are happening at the best time.?Autumn is approaching, one needs to act confidently and quickly.?Joint exercises between the Putin's and Chinese armies have begun, so the Russians have no chance to react quickly and relocate these forces.?The 3rd Army Corps is on its way to the war zone and its use will have to be reviewed by the Russians as plans will undoubtedly change.?Paralyzed railway lines will not allow a quick reaction to transfer combat equipment and soldiers.?Destroyed bridges across the Dnipro cut off the entire Kherson group into a trap.

?Let’s wish success to the Ukrainians.?On that occasion, traditionally, the proverb – “Под?лена рад?сть подв?йна, а под?лене горе вдв?ч? менше” – shared joy is double, shared pain is twice less.

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