UKRAINE, status update, 2022-07-25; 8:30

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Ork? dilemos

Veiksm? intensyvumas fronte neleid?ia teigti, kad ork? taktin? pauz? baig?si.

Ka?kiek padaug?jo artilerijos ap?audym? Donbaso kryptyje, ta?iau veiksm? intensyvumas i?lieka gerokai ma?esnis.

Ork? spaudimas Donbase ukrainie?iams daromas tik keliose kryptyse ir ribotais paj?gumais. Tai rodo, kad ?iuo metu orkai nesitiki pasiekti ka?koki? rimtesni? pergali?. Charkovo srityje orkai ginasi, vis? d?mes? sutelk? ? u?imt? pozicij? apsaugojim?.

Sumy regione orkai ap?audo ukrainie?i? pozicijas i? artilerijos. Vargu, ar ry?is atnaujinti puolim? ?ia kryptimi d?l ribot? resurs?. Tikslas vienas – kuo daugiau Ukrainos d?mesio nukreipti nuo Donbaso.

Zapori??s regione be esmini? pakitim?.

Chersono srityje taip pat. Orkai daugiau d?mesio skiria ? apsupim? galin?io patekti Vysokopylija dalinio apsaugai. Tam naudoja artilerijos ir aviacijos palaikym?. Situacija ?ioje vietov?je i? esm?s nepasikeit?.

Chersono regiono tilt? ataka orkams ?var? kaip reikiant baim?s. Ne ma?iau nei vadavie?i? ir amunicijos sand?li? sunaikinimas.

Neabejojame, kad orkai turi mil?ini?k? dilem? – ar trauktis i? Chersono ir gelb?ti grupuot? ar pasilikti ir tik?tis, kad situacija i?sispr?s j? naudai.

Panikos jausmas tvyro ore, kadangi puikiai suvokiama, kad atkirtus ten esan?ias paj?gas nuo atsitraukimo keli? jos bus pasmerktos ilgai ir l?tai mir?iai.

Gali būti, kad vien? dien? netik?tai pamatysime skubiai besitraukian?ias okupant? paj?gas. Taip, kaip tai ?vyko prie Kyjivo.

Ukrainie?iai akivaizd?iai demonstruoja siek? netolimoje ateityje atsikovoti Cherson?. Nereik?t? nura?yti ir Zapori??s krypties, kadangi ji strategi?kai ne ma?iau svarbi nei Chersono.

Mus kur kas labiau domina taktin?s gudryb?s, kurias pasitelks ukrainie?iai, siekdami kuo ma?esniais nuostoliais ir efektyviau atsikovoti Cherson?.

Kod?l rusai laikosi ?sikib? Chersono? Tai galimyb? ?kada nors“ t?sti puolim? Odesos kryptimi. Taip pat Chersono praradimas būt? mil?ini?kas smūgis putlerio propagandos ma?inai ir tiesioginis ?rodymas apie labai ribotas ork? karines galimybes.

?tai kod?l ork? dilema, trauktis i? Chersono ar ne yra tokia didel? ir sunki. Viliam?s, kad Chersono grupuot?s likimas bus nuspr?stas greitai ir labai liūdnai orkams.

Kaip sako ukrainie?i? liaudies i?mintis – ?У бою побувати — ц?ну життя вп?знати“ – mū?yje pabuv?s gyvenimo kain? su?inai.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Russian dilemmas

The intensity of the action on the front does not suggest that the Russian tactical pause is over.

There has been a slight increase in artillery shelling in the Donbas, but the intensity of action remains much lower.

Russian pressure on the Ukrainians in the Donbass is limited to a few directions and to a limited capacity. This indicates that the Russians do not expect to achieve any serious victories at this stage. In the Kharkiv area, the Russians are defending themselves by concentrating on protecting their positions.

In the Sumy region, the Russians are shelling Ukrainian positions with artillery. It is unlikely that they will renew the offensive in this direction due to limited resources. The aim is to divert as much of Ukraine's attention as possible away from the Donbas.

In the Zaporizhzhya region, no major changes.

The Kherson area as well. The Russians are focusing more on protecting the Vysokopyliya unit that could be surrounded. They use artillery and air support for this. The situation in the area has not changed substantially.

The attack on the bridges in the Kherson region has put the Russians in a state of fear. No less than the destruction of command posts and ammunition depots.

There is no doubt that the Russians have a huge dilemma: whether to retreat from Kherson and save the group or to stay and hope that the situation will work out in their favor.

There is a sense of panic in the air, as it is well understood that cutting the forces there off from the retreat routes will condemn them to a long and slow death.

It is possible that one day we will suddenly see the occupying forces retreating in haste. Just as it happened at Kyiv.

The Ukrainians are clearly demonstrating their desire to recapture Kherson in the near future. The Zaporizhzhya axis should not be written off either, as it is just as strategically important as Kherson.

We are much more interested in the tactical tricks that the Ukrainians will use to retake Kherson with as few losses and as efficiently as possible.

Why are the Russians holding on to Kherson? It is the possibility of "someday" continuing the offensive towards Odessa. Also, the loss of Kherson would be a huge blow to Putin’s propaganda machine and a direct demonstration of the very limited military capabilities of the Russians.

This is why the Russian dilemma of whether or not to retreat from Kherson is so great and difficult. We hope that the fate of the Kherson faction will be decided quickly and very sadly for the Russians.

As the Ukrainian folk wisdom says - "У бою побувати — ц?ну життя вп?знати" - you learn the price of life by being in battle.

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