UKRAINE, status update, 2022-07-22; 8:20

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Ma?os pergal?s

Situacija fronte ir v?l be esmini? pasikeitim?. Orkai ir toliau nes?kmingai bando gerinti savo pozicijas Donbase. Daugiausia, k? jie pasiekia – savo paj?g? nuostolius ir praradimus.

Separatist? paj?gose itin slogios nuotaikos, kadangi būtent jas orkai varo ? priek?, o ukrainie?iai s?kmingai naikina. ?tvirtintos ukrainie?i? pozicijos be rimtos artilerijos paramos orkams kol kas sunkiai ?kandamos.

Neabejojame, kad orkai atnaujins rimtus karinius veiksmus ir bandys inicijuoti ?turm?, kai tik tam bus pasireng?. Savo ruo?tu ukrainie?iai Donbase atliko paj?g? rotacij?. Ji buvo itin reikalinga, kadangi tai stipriai nukent?j? padaliniai, kurie negali be atvangos dalyvauti kovos veiksmuose.

Padalini? viduje jie atlieka rotacijas, ta?iau jos trumpos ir ilgalaikio fizinio i?sekimo nepanaikina. Nauj? padalini? ?vedimas leis pails?ti ir atstatyti paj?gumus, tuo pa?iu yra rizika, kad orkai bandys tuo pasinaudoti. ?Береженого Бог береже, а козака шабля“ – besisaugant? dievas saugo, o kazok? – kardas.

Ukrainie?iai nesibodi ir toliau atakuoja logistikos centrus. Geriau paanalizavus ukrainie?i? kontrpuolimo ir intensyviausios gynybos kryptis galime susidaryti labai ai?k? vaizd?, ko trumpuoju laikotarpiu siekia ukrainie?iai. Vis? detali? neatskleisime, ta?iau pasakysime tiek, jog did?iausias d?mesys sutelktas ? visi?k? ork? logistikos suparaly?iavim?.

Jeigu iki ?iol daugiausiai mat?me artilerijos ir aviacijos smūgius logistikos centrams ir keliams, tai dabar matome jau ir sausumos paj?g? tiksling? darb? ta linkme. Ne ma?iau svarbi ir diversini? grupi? ork? u?nugaryje veikla.

Prad?jus trūkin?ti ir taip silpnoms ork? logistikos grandin?ms padidinti veiksm? intensyvum? orkams bus nemenkas i??ūkis. Ukrainie?iams ir toliau KASDIEN s?kmingai naikinant amunicijos sand?lius, tai tampa Achilo kulnu ork? kariuomenei.

Per par? sunaikinami vidutini?kai 5 - 7 sand?liai ar amunicijos saugojimo vietos. Vis d?lto ?is amunicijos atsarg? naikinimo intensyvumas yra per ma?as, kad ukrainie?iai visi?kai paraly?iuot? jos tiekim? ? front?.

Charkovo kryptyje orkai neturi pakankam? paj?gum? puolimo vystymui. Bent jau ?iuo metu, nors putleris ir ?sak? u?imti Charkovo srit? ir pat? miest?. Tai nuskamb?jo kaip nes?kmingas bandymas pam?gd?ioti Zelensk?. Charkovo krypties gynyba, kartu su lokaliomis kontratakomis yra pakankamai s?kminga, sustabd?iusi ork? kontrpuolim?, inicijuot? prie? daugiau nei m?nes?.

Zapori??s kryptyje ukrainie?iai ir toliau stiprina turimus paj?gumus, ruo?ia dirv? kontrpuolimui.

Chersono srityje ukrainie?iai, nesistengdami forsuoti puolimo, kryptingai dirba artilerija, aviacija ir psichologi?kai slegia orkus. J? nuotaikos Chersono kryptyje labai nekokios, kadangi n?ra joki? ger? ?ini?, tik i?tisinis ukrainie?i? spaudimas. Esant staigiam ukrainie?i? kontrpuolimui tai gali suveikti su galinga j?ga ir priversti orkus kapituliuoti.

Kaip parod? ?vykiai prie Kyjivo ir kitose vietov?se, orkai labai bijo paj?g? apsupimo. Kai i?kyla reali gr?sm? būti apsuptiems, gynybos pozicijos paliekamos ir staigiai atsitraukiama. Kol kas iki galo nesuprantame tokios logikos, kadangi apsupimas nebūtinai rei?kia t? paj?g? kapituliacij? ar sunaikinim?.

Grei?iausiai tai daroma d?l galimo putinstano visuomen?s spaudimo tokios nes?km?s atveju. Arba karo vad? baim?s ?inant kaip sukonstruota ork? kariuomen?, kad jis stovi ant baim?s pamat?.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Small victories

The situation on the frontline is again without major changes. The Russians continue to try unsuccessfully to improve their position in the Donbas. The most they are achieving are losses and casualties of their forces.?

The separatist forces are in a particularly gloomy mood, as it is they who are being driven forward by the Russians and successfully destroyed by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian positions, which are entrenched, are difficult for the Russians to penetrate without serious artillery support.?

We have no doubt that the Russians will resume serious military action and will try to initiate an assault as soon as they are ready. For their part, the Ukrainians have carried out a rotation of forces in the Donbas. This was particularly necessary as these are heavily affected units which cannot take part in combat operations without proper rest and recuperation.?

Ukrainians carry out rotations within the units, but they are short and do not eliminate long-term physical exhaustion. The introduction of new units will allow for rest and rebuilding, while at the same time there is a risk that the Russians will try to take advantage of this. "Береженого Бог береже, а козака шабля" (God protects the unprotected and the Cossack the sword).

The Ukrainians do not hesitate to continue attacking logistics centers. Analysis of the Ukrainian counterattack and the most intensive defense gives us a very clear picture of what the Ukrainians are trying to achieve in the short term. We will not disclose all the details, but it is sufficient to say that the focus is on the complete paralysis of Russian logistics.?

Whereas up to now we have seen mainly artillery and air strikes on logistics centers and roads, we are now also seeing the ground forces working in that direction. Equally important is the activity of diversionary groups behind the Russian forces.?

As the already weak logistics chains of the Russians begin to break down, it will be a challenge for the Russians to increase the intensity of their operations. As the Ukrainians continue to destroy ammunition depots every day, this is becoming an Achilles heel for the Russian army.?

On average, 5-7 warehouses or ammunition storage sites are destroyed each day. But even such destruction of ammunition stockpiles is too low for the Ukrainians to completely paralyze the supply to the front.?

In the direction of Kharkiv, the Russians do not have sufficient capacity to develop an offensive. At least for the time being, even though Putin has ordered the seizure of the Kharkiv area and the city itself. This sounded like a failed attempt to emulate Zelensky. The defense of the Kharkiv axis, together with localized counter-attacks, has been successful enough to stop the Russian counter-attack initiated over a month ago.?

In the Zaporizhzhya direction, the Ukrainians continue to build up their forces, preparing the ground for a counter-offensive.?

In Kherson, the Ukrainians are targeting artillery, aviation, and putting psychological pressure on the Russian forces without attempting to force an attack. Russian mood in the Kherson direction is very bad, as there is no good news, only constant Ukrainian pressure. In the event of a sudden Ukrainian counter-attack, this could be a powerful force and push the Russians to capitulate there.?

As the events at Kyiv and elsewhere have shown, the Russians are very fearful of being surrounded by Ukrainian forces. When there is a real threat of encirclement, defensive positions are abandoned, and a sharp retreat is made. We do not yet fully understand this logic, as encirclement does not necessarily mean the surrender or destruction of those forces.?

It is most likely due to the possible pressure from Putin's public in the event of such a failure. Or the fear of the warlords, knowing how the Russian army is constructed, so that it stands on a foundation of fear.

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