UKRAINE, status update, 2022-07-12; 9:00

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Ker?tas tvyro ore

S?kmingi ukrainie?i? smūgiai, kuri? d?ka sunaikintos svarbios vadaviet?s u?rūstino orkus. Tai ne pirmas ir ne antras kartas, kai imamasi ker?to akcij?.

O nuo to ken?ia civiliai, kurie naudojami kaip tikslingi taikiniai. N?ra kito paai?kinimo, kaip tik ork? siekis pakirsti ukrainie?i? pasitik?jim? savo kariuomene ir vald?ia. Kol kas tai visi?kai neveikia.

Tai matoma ir i? to, kad ork? u?nugaryje pietuose itin aktyviai veikia partizanai, jiems talkina vietiniai gyventojai. Tai svarbus veiksnys, ginant savo ?emes. Ta proga, ukrainie?i? liaudies i?mintis – ?Дома й ст?ни помагають“ – namuose ir sienos padeda.

Tad smūgiai ? civili? gyvenamuosius pastatus lemia civili? ?ūtis, ta?iau ne ukrainie?i? pasiry?im? kovoti.

Charkovo srityje orkai bando kovoti su lokaliomis ukrainie?i? kontratakomis. Taip pat neatsisako patys vykdyti puolam?j? veiksm?. ?i? veiksm? intensyvumas n?ra didelis ir labiau primen? ork? siek? i?laikyti ukrainie?i? paj?gas nei pasiekti esmini? laim?jim? mū?io lauke.

Donbase ir toliau vyksta intensyvi ork? ?valgyba mū?iu bei bandymas ap?iuopti silpnas vietas ir esant galimybei pasiekti progres? mū?io lauke. Pakanka vien pa?velgti ? satelitinius duomenis apie ugnies ?idinius ir tampa akivaizdu, kad ork? artilerijos panaudojimas bent 4 - 5 kartus ma?esnis nei prie? savait?.

Be artilerijos jie negali vykdyti didelio mastelio puolam?j? veiksm?. Neabejojame, kad orkai vykdo paruo?iamuosius veiksmus didelio puolimo atnaujinimui.

Ta?iau tokie netik?ti ukrainie?i? smūgiai vadaviet?ms ir aprūpinimui neabejotinai jaukia ork? planus. Tur?sime pasteb?ti neabejotinai pakitus? ork? karo veiksm? pobūd?. ?iuo metu nematome rimt? prie?nuod?i? ginkluotei, kuri? naudoja ukrainie?iai ir jos efektyvumui.

Ko reikia, kad orkai gal?t? pasiprie?inti? Vis? pirma duomen? apie ?i? priemoni? jud?jim? ir veikim?. Tam reikia arba ant?emin?s ?valgybos arba ?valgybos i? oro. Ant?emin?s ?valgybos, ko gero, nepavyks padaryti, kadangi tai giliai u?nugaryje. ?valgyba i? oro – satelitin? arba aviacijos priemon?mis, tokiomis kaip dronai ar l?ktuvai. Kol kas toki? galimybi? orkai neturi.

Ukrainos prezidentas per ?iniasklaid? i?platino prane?im? jog paved? i?laisvinti pietin? Ukrainos dal?. ?is prane?imas nuskamb?jo kiek keistokai. Ne?inome tikrojo tokio prane?imo tikslo, ta?iau galime daryti tam tikras prielaidas:

1. Realiai duotas signalas kariuomenei ir siekis pakelti ukrainie?i? tik?jim? kariuomene ir jos galimyb?mis
2. Pasi?sti ai?k? signal? prie?ui, kur sutelkiamas pagrindinis d?mesys. Tokiu būdu ?ne?ant sumai?ties ? prie?o planavimo proces?
3. Pasi?sti ?ini? okupuot? Ukrainos piet? gyventojams, kad būtina evakuotis d?l prasid?sian?i? aktyvi? kovos veiksm?

Kaip bebūt? ?is veiksmas neabejotinai suplanuotas ir labai tikslingai atliekamas.

Tik?kim?s taip pat tikslingai ir efektyviai bus atliekamas okupuot? Ukrainos teritorij? i?laisvinimas.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Revenge is in the air

Successful Ukrainian strikes that destroyed important command posts have enraged the Russians. This is not the first or the second time that retaliatory actions have been taken.

Consequently, Ukrainian citizens, who are being used as targets, are suffering as a result. There is no other explanation than the Russian desire to undermine the Ukrainians' confidence in their army and government. So far, it has not worked at all.

This is also evident from the fact that, behind the Russian lines in the south, the Ukrainian guerilla are very active, assisted by the local population. This is an important factor in defending their lands. On this occasion, the Ukrainian folk wisdom - 'Дома й ст?ни помагають' - 'At home even walls help'.

Thus, strikes on civilian dwellings result in civilian deaths, but not in the willingness of Ukrainians to fight.

In the Kharkiv area, the Russians are facing Ukrainian counterattacks but also carry out offensive actions themselves. The intensity of these actions is not significant and is more akin to their desire to hold the Ukrainian forces from making substantial gains on the battlefield.

In the Donbas, the Russians continue to conduct intensive battlefield reconnaissance and to try to identify weaknesses and, if possible, make advances on the battlefield. One only must look at the satellite data on the firing points to see that the Russian artillery deployment is at least 4-5 times lower than a week ago.

Without artillery, Russians are unable to carry out large-scale offensive. At the same time, the signs are indicating that Russians are preparing for the resumption of a major offensive once again.

Meanwhile, Russian forces faced unexpected Ukrainian strikes on command and supply centers. That did have impact on existing plans as can be seen in the changes of Russian warfare. It is unlikely that Russians will come up with any serious antidotes to the weapons used by the Ukrainians and their effectiveness.

What does it take for the Russians to be able to counter new weapons that Ukrainian so successfully use? Firstly, intelligence on the movement and performance of these weapons. This requires either ground intelligence or aerial intelligence. Ground intelligence is unlikely to be able to do this, as it is deep in the rear. Aerial reconnaissance - either satellite or aerial, such as drones or planes. So far, the Russians do not have such capabilities.

The President of Ukraine has issued a press release saying that he has ordered the liberation of the southern part of Ukraine. This announcement sounded a little strange. We do not know the real purpose of this announcement, but we can make some assumptions:

1. A real signal to the army and an attempt to raise the Ukrainian people's faith in the army and its capabilities
2. To send a clear signal to the enemy where the focus is. Thus, adding confusion to the enemy's planning process
3. To send a message to the population of the occupied south of Ukraine that evacuation is necessary due to the outbreak of active hostilities

However, this action is carried out, it is undoubtedly planned and very purposeful.

Let us hope that the liberation of the occupied territories of Ukraine will be carried out in the same purposeful and effective manner.

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