UKRAINE, status update, 2022-07-07; 8:30

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Sunkūs pasirinkimai

Karo veiksm? intensyvumas Ukrainoje nema??ja. Pagal surinktus duomenis akivaizd?iai i?siskiria dvi sritys – Chersono ir Donbaso.

Donbase orkai bando pasinaudoti ukrainie?i? atsitraukimu ir gynybos organizavimu. Kai kur orkai stipriai gavo ? kaulus, kai kur gali pasiekti minimali? pergali?. Situacija dinami?ka, itin daug prie?taringos informacijos. Artimiausios kelios savait?s parodys kaip ?alims sekasi kovoti.

Zapori??s ir Charkovo srityje bene ma?iausiai aktyvi? veiksm?. Tai s?lygin? s?voka, kadangi kovos vyksta, ta?iau j? intensyvumas netoks didelis kaip Chersono ar Donbaso kryptyse.

Chersono srityje ir toliau s?kmingai naikinamos ork? atsargos ir svarbūs logistikos punktai. Intensyvios kovos vyksta trimis kryptimis.

Apie ork? veiksmus ir tikslus susidarome pakankamai ai?k? ?spūd?. Ta?iau apie ukrainie?i? planus ir galim? tolimesni? veiksm? sek? kol kas negalime daug pasakyti.

Projektuojant galimus ukrainie?i? veiksmus būtina ?vertinti skirting? sri?i? reik?mes. Donbaso sritis kur kas ma?iau svarbi nei Chersono, kadangi Juodosios jūros pakrant? yra itin svarbi Ukrainos ekonomikos gyvybi?kumui ir gr?sm?ms i? Krymo pus?s.

Puolimas Chersono kryptimi gali būti tik svarbus d?mes? nukreipiantis manevras. Pagrindin? problema – per Dnipro up? yra tik du keliai – vienas tiltas ir hidroelektrin?. Rusams atsidūrus pavojuje, be jokios abejon?s tiltas gal?t? būti susprogdintas. Tai sustabdyt? bet kok? ukrainie?i? progres?.

Tad strategi?kai kur kas svarbiau būt? atkovoti prarastas teritorijas nuo Zapori??s link Melitopolio, perskiriant ork? paj?gas ? dvi dalis. Tuomet atsivert? galimyb?s atkirsti Krym? ir ork? Chersono grupuot? bei i?saugoti itin svarb? Antonovo tilt?.

Tai vienas i? galim? ukrainie?i? kontrpuolimo scenarij?, kuris būt? pats logi?kiausias, nors ir sunkiai ?gyvendinamas. Ne?inome ar tokiu keliu pasuks ukrainie?iai, kai tam ateis laikas, ta?iau neabejojame, kad Ukrainos karin? vadovyb? ruo?ia planus ne tik gynybai, bet ir kontrpuolimui.

Kuo grei?iau ukrainie?iai prad?s tokius veiksmus, tuo geriau. U?sit?sus okupacijai mil?ini?kas psichologinis spaudimas ir bl?stanti viltis gali paveikti Chersono srities gyventojus. Kai ilgai nesulauki pagalbos ar rezultat?, pradedi abejoti ateitimi. Būtent to ir siekia orkai, visomis i?gal?mis darydami mil?ini?k? spaudim? ukrainie?iams, likusiems okupuotose teritorijose. ?ia tinka ukrainie?i? liaudies i?mintis, tad patarl? ta tema – ?Не буде добра, коди в хат? вражда“ - nieko gera nebus, jei namuose kils prie?i?kumas.

Laimei, kol kas gyventojai dar nusiteik? karingai, remia partizanus, prie?inasi okupantams, teikia duomenis ukrainie?i? kariuomenei. Laukia jos at?jimo ir okupant? i?varymo, ?ino, kad tai ?vyks. Tai tik laiko klausimas.

__________________________________

ENGLISH VERSION

Difficult choices

The intensity of hostilities in Ukraine continues unabated. Two areas clearly stand out - Kherson and Donbass.?

In the Donbass, the Russians are trying to take advantage of the Ukrainian retreat and the organization of defenses. In some places the Russians have been badly beaten, in others they may achieve minimal victories. The situation is dynamic, with a lot of conflicting information.?

Zaporizhzhya and Kharkiv are the least active areas. This is a relative term, as fighting is taking place, but the intensity is not as high as in Kherson or the Donbas.?

In Kherson, the destruction of Russian supplies and important logistic points continues to be successful. Intense fighting is taking place in three directions.?

It is possible to create a rather good understanding of Russian actions and objectives. However, it cannot yet be said so about the Ukrainian plans and the possible sequence of further actions.?

In projecting possible Ukrainian actions, it is necessary to assess the implications of the different areas. The Donbass area is far less important than Kherson, as the Black Sea coast is crucial to Ukraine's economic viability and to the threats from Crimea.?

An attack on Kherson can only be an important diversionary maneuver. The main problem is that there are only two roads across the Dnipro River - one bridge and a hydroelectric power station dam. If the Russians were in danger, there is no doubt that the bridge could be blown up. That would stop any progress by the Ukrainians.?

It would therefore be much more strategically important to regain the lost territories from Zaporizhzhya to Melitopol by splitting the Russian forces in two. This would then open the possibility of cutting off the Crimea and the Russian Kherson group and preserving the crucial Antonov Bridge.?

This is one of the most logical, albeit difficult to implement, scenarios for a Ukrainian counterattack. We do not know whether the Ukrainians will follow this path when the time comes, but we have no doubt that the Ukrainian military leadership is preparing plans not only for defense but also for counterattack.?

The sooner the Ukrainians take such action, the better. The enormous psychological pressure and the fading hope that the occupation will bring with it may affect the population of Kherson Oblast. When one does not get help or results for a long time, one begins to doubt the future. This is exactly what the Russian are trying to do by exerting enormous pressure on the Ukrainians remaining in the occupied territories. Ukrainian folk wisdom applies here, hence the proverb on the subject - ' Не буде добра, коди в хат? вражда ' - 'It will do no good to have hostility at home.

Fortunately, for the time being, the population is still in a militant mood, supporting the partisans, resisting the occupiers, and providing data to the Ukrainian army. They are waiting for it to come and expel the occupiers, and they know it will happen. It is only a matter of time.

#ukraine #war #update?