UKRAINE, status update, 2022-07-01; 10:10

(ENGLISH VERSION - scroll below)

Kokios ribos pie?iamos?

Situacija fronte, kaip ir tik?tasi, i? esm?s nesikei?ia. Rusai, kiek ?manoma, bando aktyvinti kovos veiksmus ties Lysi?iansku. Jiems liko labai nedaug, kad i?eit? ? administracines Luhansko apskrities ribas ir būt? pilnai u??m?. Kod?l būtent Luhansko arba Donetsko administracin?s ribos jiems labai svarbios? Juk tai Ukrainos nustatytos administracin?s ribos. Tu, kaip okupantas, gali j? laikytis arba ne, gali perbrai?yti ?em?lap? pagal save ir pan. Gali būti, kad prie?astis yra tai, kad informaciniame lauke tai yra vienintel? galimyb?, nebūti nuolat toje pozicijoje, kurioje esi nuolat kvestionuojamas, kad tu nevaldai visos srities ir Donecko ar Luhansko sri?i? gyventojai palaikyt? t? pa?i? pro ukrainieti?k? pozicij?, kad rusai tikrai nekontroliuoja visko. Bet tai būt? tik media informacinio karo ?aidimai.

Zapory??s ir Chersono kryptyse ir toliau vyksta intensyvūs veiksmai. Ukrainie?iai stengiasi po truput? grau?tis iki rus? pozicij?. Progres? arba jo nebuvim? pamatysime artimiausiomis savait?mis, nes procesas l?tas ir greit? rezultat? tik?tis ?ia nelabai reik?t?. Pasinaudosime proga ukrainie?i? patarlei – ?На см?лого собака гавка?, а боягуза куса?” – ant dr?saus ?uo loja, o bail? – kand?ioja.

Prie Charkovo rusai bando maksimaliai spausti ukrainie?ius, kad Charkovas tapt? tiesiogiai ap?audomas rus? artilerija. Tuomet būt? labai sunku, nes būt? mil?ini?kas spaudimas, kadangi Charkovas – antras pagal dyd? Ukrainos miestas.

Vienas ?domiausi? pastarojo meto epizod? – tai, kad rusai paliko Gyva?i? sal?. Kaip patys rusai pasak?, tai geros valios ?enklas. ?ia jau nesijuokti nei?eina, nes absurdi?kesnio pasiteisinimo rusai sugalvoti tikrai negal?jo. ?ia jau reikia tur?ti itin ma?as smegenis, kaip kokiam dinozaurui Rex, kuris yra galingas, turi pavojingus nasrus, bet smegenys yra labai ma?os.

Pasitraukimas i? Gyva?i? salos yra natūralus ?ingsnis, nes ukrainie?iai ten i?tisai naikino visk?, k? rusai atsigabendavo. Buvo tik laiko klausimas, kada rusai nustos ten gabenti technik? ir nuspr?sti pasitraukti. Rus? nuostoliai tikrai dideli, ypatingai tos technikos, kuri yra naudojama prie?l?ktuviniai gynybai, radiolokacijai ir ry?iams.

Gyva?i? salos svarbos nereik?t? nuvertinti, kadangi ji leid?ia maksimaliai apriboti ukrainie?i? veikim? pakrant?s zonoje. Jeigu tos priemon?s, kurios sunaikintos, būt? pilnai veikian?ios. Dabar, kai eliminuotas Gyva?i? salos faktorius, ukrainie?i? rankos labiau atri?tos, o rusai turi gerokai ma?iau galimybi? ?vykdyti bet kokias jūrines operacijas ukrainie?i? Juodosios jūros pakrant?je. Tad lyg ir visi?kai mikroskopin? sala – jos reik?m? pakankamai didel?. Dabar jau ji dirba ukrainie?i? naudai.

Dar vienas svarbus epizodas ?iame kare – galutinai ?sitikinome, kad rusai maksimaliai stringa su taikli? raket? panaudojimu. Tai, kad jie i?sitrauk?, beveik nuolat i?tisai naudoja sovietines eros raketas, paleid?iamas i? strategini? bombone?i?, rodo, kad rusai turi mil?ini?k? logistikos problem?. Atstatyti sunaudotas taiklias kruizines raketas jie nelabai turi kuo. Pasekm? – sovietin?s eros raket? taiklumas yra labai ?emas, o nukrypimas nuo taikinio priklausomai nuo atstumo gali būti labai didelis – nuo keliasde?imties iki keli? ?imt? metr?. Gali būti net iki pus?s kilometro, nes jos neturi GPS sekikli?, vietov?s nustatymo ?rangos ir kt. – negali būti atitinkamai suvaldomos.

Stebime ir stengiam?s gauti kuo daugiau ?ini?, kokios dar logistin?s problemos kaupiasi pas rusus.

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ENGLISH VERSION

What boundaries are being drawn?

?The situation on the front line is, as expected, largely unchanged.?The Russians are trying to intensify the fighting as much as possible at Lysychiansk.?They have very little left to go to the administrative boundaries of Luhansk County and take it completely.?Why are the administrative borders of Luhansk or Donetsk so important to them??After all, these are the administrative boundaries established by Ukraine.?You, as the occupier, can stick to them or not, you can redraw the map to suit yourself and so on.?It may be that the reason for this is that, in the information field, it is the only possibility not to be in a position where you are constantly being challenged, that you do not have control over the whole area, and that the inhabitants of?Donetsk or Luhansk would maintain the same pro-Ukrainian position, that the Russians do not really have control over everything.?But that would be just media information war games.

?In the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson directions, intensive actions continue.?The Ukrainians are trying to slowly claw their way back to the Russian positions.?We will see progress, or lack of it, in the coming weeks, because the process is slow and quick results are not to be expected here.?Let us take this opportunity to use a Ukrainian proverb: 'На см?лого собака гавка?, а боягуза куса?' - 'the dog barks at the brave, but bites the coward'.

?Near Kharkiv, the Russians are trying to put maximum pressure on the Ukrainians so that Kharkiv is under direct fire from Russian artillery.?Then it would be very difficult, because there would be enormous pressure, because Kharkiv is the second largest city in Ukraine.

?One of the most interesting recent episodes is that the Russians have abandoned the island of Gyvachy.?As the Russians themselves have said, this is a sign of goodwill.?It is impossible not to laugh here, because the Russians could not have come up with a more absurd excuse.?You need to have a very small brain, like Rex the dinosaur, who is powerful, has dangerous jaws, but a very small brain.

?Withdrawing from Snake Island is a natural step, because the Ukrainians there have been destroying everything that the Russians have brought with them all along.?It was only a matter of time before the Russians stopped bringing equipment there and decided to withdraw.?The Russian losses are really heavy, especially in terms of equipment used for air defense, radar and communications.

?The importance of the island should not be underestimated, as it allows for maximum limitation of Ukrainian activities in the coastal area.?If the facilities that have been destroyed were fully operational.?Now that the Snake Island factor has been eliminated, the Ukrainians' hands are more open and the Russians have far fewer opportunities to carry out any naval operations on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast.?So, as a completely microscopic island, its significance is considerable enough.?It is now working for the Ukrainians.

?Another important episode in this war is that we have seen definitively that the Russians are maximizing the use of cruise missiles.?The fact that they have pulled out, almost continuously, Soviet-era missiles fired from strategic bombers shows that the Russians have a huge logistics problem.?They do not have much to replace spent cruise missiles with.?The consequence is that the accuracy of Soviet-era missiles is very low, and the off-target deviation can be very high, ranging from a few tens to a few hundred meters, depending on the distance.?It can be up to half a kilometer, because they do not have GPS trackers, positioning equipment, etc.?- they can not be controlled accordingly.

?We are monitoring and trying to get as much information as we can about what other logistical problems the Russians have.

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