UKRAINE, status update, 2022-04-16, 9:30

(ENGLISH VERSION below)

Karo ?irkl?s

Ukraina atsilaik? jau penkiasde?imt dien?, ko niekas nesitik?jo. Ne tik atsilaik?, bet ir ?kr?t? ? kail? rusams Kyjivo kryptyje bei sustabd? juos kitose kryptyse.

Dabar ties Charkovu ukrainie?iai pama?u atsikovoja miestelius ir kaimus. Rodyt?si tai n?ra itin reik?mingas poslinkis, ta?iau realyb?je tokiu būdu ukrainie?iai gali sudaryti palankias s?lygas didelei kontratakai.

Galime neabejoti, kad tai realiai gali ?vykti. O tai jai būt? labai didelis smūgis ?emiau juostos, nes tai gal?t? sugriauti rus? planus apsupti ukrainie?i? paj?gas.

Ne ma?iau ?domūs dalykai vyksta Chersono srities vakaruose. Ten ukrainie?iai v?lgi stumia rusus link Dniepro ir Chersono. Kryvij Rih jau kur? laik? saugus, kad artimoji artilerija nepasieks miesto. Dabar rusai stumiami dar didesniu atstumu nuo ?io miesto. ?ioje kryptyje nesitikime esminio prover?io iki did?iojo puolimo.

Donbase rusai tur?s sukaup? didel? kiek? technikos. Su ?mon?mis gerokai sunkiau, ta?iau j? bus. Kovos technikos priemoni? skai?ius, kurios gali dalyvauti kovos veiksmuose tur?t? būti sukaupta iki ma?daug 3.000 vienet?. Tai labai didelis skai?ius, ta?iau nestebinantis.

Lygtis su ne?inomuoju – kur bus ?butelio“ kakliukai rusams jud?ti su kovos technika mū?io lauke. Kai kur rusams bus plati jud?jimo ir puolimo erdv?, kai kur teks koncentruoti technik?. Besiginantieji i?naudos galimyb? smogti ten, kur technikos jud?jimas l??iausias.

Donbase rusai bando pralau?ti gynybos linijas, didina intensyvum?, ta?iau kol kas nes?kmingai. Toks nuolatinis bandymas ma?ais paj?gumais vykdyti puolim? yra didelis galvos skausmas rusams ir dovana ukrainie?iams. Jiems itin patogu gintis prie? ma?esnius padalinius.

Ukrainie?iai ? rytus nuo Iziumo sureng? kontratak? ir u??m? svarbias pozicijas, i? kuri? gali naikinti vien? prie?o art?jimo koridori?. Ne?inome tikrojo tokios kontratakos sumanymo, ta?iau jos ?gyvendinimas geras. Per?asi mintis, kad ukrainie?iai tokiu būdu nori nukreipti pagrindines rus? paj?gas pulti per Iziumo krypt?, susiaurinant rus? puolimo front?.

Jei ?i kontrataka būt? pakartota tokiu pat masteliu ta pa?ia kryptimi, tuomet tai būt? mil?ini?kas pasiekimas ukrainie?iams. Jie gal?t? artilerijos pagalba pasiekti Kupiansk? – pagrindin? rus? transporto mazg? ir logistikos punkt? Iziumo puolimo kryptyje. Padaryt? mil?ini?k? nuostoli? kaupiamoms paj?goms ir j? aprūpinimui.

Toki? kontratak? surengimas yra vienas i? ?rodym?, kad ukrainie?iai geba kariauti manevrin? kar?. Tai jie daro visose kryptyse, kol kas ma?esniu masteliu, ta?iau tur?tume sulaukti ir rimt? kontratak?.

Ukrainos prezidentas ?vardijo ukrainie?i? nuostolius ~ 3.000 ?uvusi? kari? ir ~10.000 su?eist?. Tuo pa?iu pamin?damas, kad neai?ku, kiek i? su?eist?j? i?gyvens. Mūs? vertinimu ?ie skai?iai tur?t? būti ka?kiek didesni, ta?iau tikrai ne kartais. Neabejotina, kad daugiausia nuostoli? ukrainie?iams padar? rus? artilerijos ap?audymai ir aviacijos antskryd?iai.

Atsi?velgiant ? karo eig?, rus? naudojamas priemones, tokius nuostolius reik?t? vertinti kaip ma?us. Prie to itin daug prisideda ir tai, kad ukrainie?iai ginasi, o ne puola.

Palyginus su rus? nuostoliais, gauname ma?daug 1:6, galbūt net didesn? santyk?. Rus? nuostoliai, palyginus su ukrainie?i?, neproporcingai dideli.

?is nuostoli? lygmuo prakti?kai niekaip ne?takoja ukrainie?i? kovini? galimybi?, kadangi pritraukiamas naujas rezervas, daliniai papildomi ??vie?iu“ personalu. Ukrainie?iai stiprina prie?akinius padalinius, formuoja rezervinius dalinius, tad kariaujan?i? ukrainie?i? skai?ius nuolat did?ja.

?vertinus fakt?, kad ukrainie?iai vis dar pasipildo kariavimo patirt? turin?iu personalu, o rusai ? mū?? meta vis blogiau paruo?tus karius, gaunasi savoti?kos paj?gum? ?irkl?s. Kur personalo ?taka karo eigai didesn? ukrainie?i? pus?je, o karo technikos, d?l didelio kaupiamo technikos kiekio – rus? pus?je.

Rusai mobilizuoja sen? technik? ir ginkluot?, kuri net nepalyginama su prie? tai buvusia. Palyginimui, tai su kuo dabar kariauja rusai yra kartais efektyvesn? nei siun?iama i? Rusijos gilumos rezerv? papildymui. Tokiu būdu rus? kovos technikos ?taka bus ?enkliai ma?esn? nei pirmame karo etape.

Stebime tolimesn? karo eig? su viltimi, kad rusai patirs labai dideli? nuostoli? ir nesugeb?s ?gyvendinti u?sibr??t? tiksl?.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Scissors of war

Ukraine has stood its ground for fifty days, which no one expected. Not only has it stood its ground, but it also kicked occupant’s butt in the direction of Kyiv and stopped its advances in other directions.

Now, near Kharkov, the Ukrainians are slowly retaking towns and villages. This would not seem to be a very significant development, but it could create the conditions for a major counterattack by the Ukrainians.

We can have no doubt that this can happen. And that would be a very big blow below the belt for the Russians, because it could disrupt their plans to encircle the Ukrainian forces.

Equally interesting things are happening in the west of Kherson Oblast. There, the Ukrainians are again pushing the Russians towards the Dnieper and Kherson. Kryvyi Rih has been safe for some time now, so that the short-range artillery will not reach the town. Now the Russians are being pushed even further away from the town. We do not expect a breakthrough in this direction before the big offensive.

The Russians will have accumulated a large amount of equipment in Donbas. It is much more difficult with troops but there will be some. The number of combat vehicles that can take part in the fighting should build up to around 3 000. This is a very large number, but not surprising.

The unknowns in the war equation are where the "bottle necks" will be for the Russians to move with combat vehicles on the battlefield. In some places the Russians will have a wide area of movement and attack, in some places they will have to concentrate their equipment. The defenders will take the opportunity to strike where the movement of equipment is slowest.

In Donbass, the Russians are trying to break through the defensive lines, increasing their intensity, but so far without success. This constant attempt to attack with small forces is a big headache for the Russians and a gift to the Ukrainians. They are particularly comfortable defending themselves against smaller units.

The Ukrainians have launched a counterattack east of Izum and have taken important positions from which they can destroy one of the enemy's approach corridors. We do not know the real intention of this counterattack, but its implementation is good. The Ukrainians thus intend to divert the main Russian forces to attack through the direction of Izum, thus narrowing the Russian attack front.

If this counterattack were to be repeated on the same scale in the same direction, it would be a huge achievement for the Ukrainians. They would be able to reach Kupiansk, the main Russian transport hub and logistical point in the direction of the Izumo offensive, with the help of artillery. This would cause enormous losses to the massed forces and their supplies.

The launching of such counterattacks is one of the proofs of the Ukrainians' ability to wage a war of maneuver. They are doing this in all directions, on a smaller scale for the time being, and we should see more counterattacks in the future.

The Ukrainian President has put the Ukrainian armed forces losses at ~3000 dead and ~10000 wounded. At the same time mentioning that it is unclear how many of the wounded will survive. In our estimation these figures should be somewhat higher, but perhaps not in multiples. Undoubtedly, the Russian artillery shelling and air strikes have caused a lot of damage to the Ukrainians.

Given the course of the war and the means used by the Russians, such losses should be regarded as small. The fact that the Ukrainians are defending rather than attacking is a major contributing factor.

Compared with the Russian losses, the ratio is about 1:6, perhaps even higher. The Russian losses are disproportionately high compared to the Ukrainian losses.

This level of losses has virtually no impact on the Ukrainian combat capability, as new reserves are being brought in and units are being reinforced with 'fresh' personnel. The Ukrainians are reinforcing forward units, forming reserve units, so that the number of Ukrainians fighting is constantly increasing.

The fact that the Ukrainians are still replenishing their personnel with combat experience, while the Russians are throwing more and more ill-prepared troops into the fray, creates a kind of scissors of capabilities. Where the influence of personnel on the course of the war is greater on the Ukrainian side, and that of military equipment on the Russian side, due to the large accumulation of equipment.

The Russians are mobilizing old equipment and armaments that are not even comparable to the current equipment. For comparison, the equipment that the Russians are fighting against is many times more effective than what is being sent as replenishment from inside Russia. The influence of Russian combat equipment will thus be considerably less than in the first phase of the war.

We are watching the further course of the war in the hope that the Russians will suffer very heavy losses and fail to achieve their objectives.

#ukraine #war #update