UKRAINE, status update, 2022-04-14, 7:10

(ENGLISH VERSION below)

Far?o skardin?s

?? laikotarp? galime vadinti s?lygine taktine pauze. Nors rusai puola, ta?iau intensyvumas n?ra pakankamas. Keletas aktualij?, kurios rodo tam tikras tendencijas.

Rus? l?ktuv? panaudojimo da?nis sumenko, pagrinde d?l ribot? galimybi? mū?io lauke. Jeigu l?ktuvai pradeda veikti aktyviau, tuomet pradeda kristi. Prie?l?ktuvin?s artimojo nuotolio sistemos yra visuose ukrainie?i? padaliniuose.

Puolimas ma?ais padaliniais prakti?kai yra rus? resurs? naikinimas. Ukrainie?iai prisileid?ia kovos technik? iki patogi? naikinimui pozicij?, j? sudau?o. Tuomet rusai v?l bando si?sti kit? far?o skardin?se porcij?.

Rusai kaupia padalinius, juos pritraukin?ja ar?iau fronto linijos. Jie – geras taikinys ukrainie?i? dronams, artilerijai.

Rusijos pasienyje rusai kaupia paj?gumus, kuria bazes. I? to būt? galima daryti i?vad?, kad arba rusai taip bando formuoti rezerv?, arba ?didysis“ puolimas dar palauks, kol bus sukaupta daugiau paj?gum?. Mūs? vertinimu labiausiai tik?tinas antras variantas.

Pabandysime paburti i? kavos tir??i? ir pamodeliuoti vien? i? galim? karo veiksm? eigos variant?, nedetalizuodami vietovi?.

Rus? puolimas tur?t? atrodyti kaip cunamio banga, ta?iau grei?iausiai taip nebus. Vienu metu puolimas bus vykdomas ne ma?iau kaip dviejose, o gal net trijose kryptyse, taip jis bus didelis. Pirmas tikslas – ukrainie?i? klaidinimas ir dalies besiginan?i? d?mesio nukreipimas ne pagrindine kryptimi.

Puolimas turi prasid?ti didele ugnies galia (artilerija ir parama i? oro), po ko seks rus? sausumos paj?gos. D?l ribot? jungtini? operacij? geb?jim? ir batalion? kovini? grupi? struktūros, koordinavimas tarp padalini? bus labai problemati?kas, kaip ir logistika.

Prakti?kai visose kryptyse rusai nuo pirm?j? kilometr? susidurs su jiems netik?ta ukrainie?i? ugnies siena. Kovos technika degs kaip degtuk? d??ut?s nuo prie?tankini? ginkl?, u?minuot? vietovi?. Tod?l, kad turim? toki? priemoni? skai?ius Ukrainos paj?gose yra ne?tik?tinai didelis. ?ias priemones papildys artilerijos smūgiai, padarantys itin dideli? nuostoli? visai gyvajai j?gai, ir lengvai ?arvuotai technikai.

Sunkiai, ta?iau pakeisdami mū?yje nukent?jusius padalinius rusai skinsis keli? ? priek?. Tikslas - ne ?iaip i?stumti ukrainie?i? paj?gas, bet kiek ?manoma labiau j? i?vengti ir sudaryti s?lygas j? apsupimui. Kai kuriomis kryptimis vieniems ar kitiems padaliniams pavyks prasiver?ti, ta?iau d?l prastos s?veikos ir ry?io, jie pateks ? sunki? pad?t?, gali būti patys atskirsti ir sumed?ioti.

Rusams nepavyks pilnai apsupti ir atkirsti ukrainie?i? paj?g?. Galbūt pavykt? apeiti ir imituoti paj?g? apsupim?, ta?iau atstumai dideli, labai sunku u?tikrinti flang? saugum?, kurie tapt? labai pa?eid?iami.

Ukrainie?iai apsigins, praleisdami prie?? galbūt iki 40-60 km ? gilum?. Ta?iau ne vien tod?l, kad visi?kai negal?t? i?laikyti gynybos linijos. Ukrainie?iai bus paruo?? bent vien? rimt? kontratak?, kad gal?t? smogti rusams ? atsiv?rus? flang?. Rusams teks mesti papildom? rezerv?. O, bet, ta?iau, jeigu rusai netur?s kiekvienoje i? puolimo kryp?i? surink? bent po 50-70 tūkstan?i? kari?, tik?tis s?km?s ma?ai realu.

?Did?iojo puolimo“ kulminacija tur?t? būti dalies rus? paj?g? apsupimas, rus? paj?g? pergrupavimas, rus? bandymas u?tikrinti u?imt? teritorij? saugum?, bei dalies paj?g? atitraukimas d?l to, kad negal?s u?tikrinti u?imt? teritorij? saugumo.

Tikimyb?, kad rusams pasiseks, vertiname 30-40 proc.

Na ir pabaigai informacija apie itin svarb? ?vyk?. Kol kas laukiame patvirtinimo ne tik ?odinio, bet ir vaizdinio, kad dviem raketomis pamu?tas ir labai gra?iai dega rus? kreiseris Maskva. ?io momento lauk?me ilgai. Rusai ?vairiomis priemon?mis band? i?siai?kinti ar/kur ukrainie?iai turi dislokav? tokias sistemas.

?is ukrainie?i? gamybos projektas (Neptune) vystomas ilg? laik?. Beje, buvo manoma, kad projektas prakti?kai ?klimpo ir nejuda i? mirties ta?ko, ypa? 2021 metais. Ukrainie?iai siek? apginkluoti kariuomen? ?ia modernia ginkluote, kuri būtina pakran?i? gynybai.

Ukrainie?i? kantryb? pasiteisino ir jie ilg? laik? i?laik? ne?inomyb?je ar ?i sistema i? viso egzistuoja karo zonoje ir yra paruo?ta naudojimui. O jei egzistuoja, kur ji? Tai did?iausias komplimentas ukrainie?iams, sugeb?jusiems s?kmingai suklaidinti rusus. Patys ukrainie?iai klausin?jo, tai kur ta sistema, juk i?leisti tokie dideli pinigai projektui.

Jei ?i informacija bus pilnai patvirtinta, beliks atsistojus paploti ukrainie?i? vadams ir kariams.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Cans of minced meat

This period can be described as a tactical pause. Although the Russians are attacking, the intensity is not sufficient for a breakthrough. Below are several events presented that indicate some trends.?

The frequency of Russian aircraft deployments has declined, mainly due to their limited capabilities on the battlefield. If aircraft become more active, then they start to fall. Short-range anti-aircraft systems are present in most if not all Ukrainian units.

Attacking with small units is practically destroying Russian resources. The Ukrainians bring combat vehicles to positions convenient for destruction, then smash them. Then the Russians try again to send in another portion of “canned meat”.?

The Russians build up units, bring them closer to the front line. They are a good target for Ukrainian drones and artillery.?

On the Russian border, the Russians are building up capabilities, creating bases. This suggests that either the Russians are trying to build up a reserve, or that the "big" offensive will wait until more capacity is built up. In our assessment, the second option is the most likely.?

Here is our assessment of the future events on the frontlines. We will try to use the miracle ball model one of the possible scenarios without specifying the locations.

The Russians would like their attack to look like a tsunami, but it probably won't. The attack will be carried out in at least two, if not three, directions at the same time. It will be large but not “tsunami-size”. The first objective will be to confuse the Ukrainians and to divert some of the defenders' attention away from the main direction.?

The attack must start with heavy firepower (artillery and air support) followed by Russian ground forces. Due to the limited joint operations capability and the structure of the Battalion Battle Groups, coordination between units will be very problematic, as will be logistical support.

In practically all directions, the Russians will be confronted with an unexpected wall of Ukrainian fire from the first kilometers. Combat vehicles will be burning like matchboxes from anti-tank weapons, mined areas. The reason for this is that the number of such means available to the Ukrainian forces is incredibly high. These will be supplemented by artillery strikes, which will inflict extremely heavy losses on all live forces and light armored vehicles.?

The Russians will be picking their way forward by replacing units that have suffered in battle. The aim is not simply to dislodge the Ukrainian forces, but to evade them as far as possible and to create the conditions for their encirclement. In some directions, one or other units will succeed in breaking through, but due to poor interaction and communication, they will find themselves in a difficult position, possibly isolated and hunted down.?

The Russians will not be able to fully encircle and cut off the Ukrainian forces. It might be possible to circumvent and simulate encirclement, but the distances are long, and it is very difficult to secure the flanks. Which would make them very vulnerable.?

The Ukrainians will defend themselves by outflanking the enemy perhaps 40-60 km inland. But not just because they would not be able to hold the line of defense at all. The Ukrainians will have prepared at least one serious counterattack to hit the Russians on the flank that has opened up. The Russians will have to throw in extra reserves. Oh, but unless the Russians have at least 50-70 thousand troops in each of the offensive lines, it is unrealistic to expect success.?

The "Great Offensive" should culminate in the encirclement of part of the Russian forces, the regrouping of the Russian forces, the Russians attempting to secure the occupied territories, and the withdrawal of part of the forces because they cannot secure the occupied territories.?

We estimate the probability of Russian success at 30-40%.?

Finally, information on a very important event. For the time being, we are awaiting confirmation, not only verbal but also visual, that the Russian cruiser Moscow has been hit by two missiles and is burning very nicely. We have waited a long time for this moment. The Russians have been trying by various means to find out whether/where the Ukrainians have deployed such missile systems.?

This Ukrainian project (Neptune) has been in development for a long time. By the way, the project was thought to be practically stuck and not moving from the point of death, especially in 2021. The Ukrainians wanted to equip the army with this modern weapon, which is essential for coastal defense.?

If this proves to be right, then it means that the Ukrainians' patience has paid off. The Russians have been kept in the dark for a long time as to whether this system even exists in a war zone. And if it does, where is it? That is the greatest compliment to the Ukrainians, who have managed to successfully mislead the Russians.?

If this information is fully confirmed, all that is left to do is to stand up and applaud the Ukrainian commanders and soldiers.

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