UKRAINE, status update, 2022-04-06, 8:00

(ENGLISH VERSION below)

Коли навколо вороги, то не життя, а честь бережи

Jau galime u?tikrintai pasakyti, kad karo veiksmai persik?l? ? Ukrainos rytus ir pietus. Ta?iau prie? pradedant ap?velgti kas vyksta ten, norisi paai?kinti kod?l rusai pab?go i? Kyjivo krypties.

Pagal puolimo apimtis ir vykdytus veiksmus galima konstatuoti, kad tai buvo viena i? keli? prioritetini? puolimo kryp?i?. Neabejotinai rusai visi?kai nenumat? tokios karo veiksm? eigos, kokia juos i?tiko.

Tad kas ?vyko ir kod?l?

Rusai Kyjivo puolim? koncentravo net i? trij? kryp?i? su ai?kiu tikslu – apsupti ir u?imti. Apsiskai?iavo ir labai stipriai. Pasirinktos puolimo kryptys i? Baltarusijos pus?s smarkiai apribotos mi?kingos vietov?s, ribojan?ios technikos jud?jim? ir galimyb? manevruoti.

Itin gerai paruo?ta ukrainie?i? gynyba ties ?ernyhivu, kurios s?km? nul?m? vad? kompetencija, teisingai suformuoti kariniai paj?gumai (sustiprinta tank? brigada). Tuo tarpu nuo Mazyriaus ir per Pripet? puolan?ios rus? paj?gos susidūr? su ma?esniu pasiprie?inimu ir nors su aktyviu ukrainie?i? pasiprie?inimu, ta?iau prasiver?? iki Kyjivo priemies?i?.

Itin svarbus veiksnys, kuris nesuveik? – rus? desanto i?laipinimas ir visi?ka nes?km? Gostomelio oro uoste. ?io kryptyje rusai strigo d?l visi?kos nekompetencijos su logistika, k? parod? mil?ini?ka logistikos kolona, ne tik pati u?blokavusi padalini? papildym?, bet ir u?kirtusi keli? kovos technikos jud?jimui.

Dar vienas ?ios krypties ypatumas – pernelyg tankus kovos technikos ir padalini? kiekis Kyjivo priemies?i? prieigose. Jie patys sau trukd? manevruoti. Bandymas panaudoti desanto ir specnazo paj?gas konvenciniam puolimui – labai kvailas sprendimas. Ukrainie?i? laimei. Jie turi didel? greit?, bet ma?? kovin? gali?, tad ir buvo sutrai?kyti Bucha ir Gostomelio prieigose ir Irpine.

Tre?ia kryptis – puolimas link Kyjivo pro Sumy. Didelis atstumas, maksimalus jud?jimo atstumas ir prakti?kai nulinis jud?jimo saugumas. Avantiūra, ne kitaip. Ir ypatingai brangi. Ukrainie?iai pasijuto lyg safaryje, naikindami lengv? grob?.

Net kai rusai priart?jo prie Kyjivo jie buvo beveik ne?galūs – visi?kai minimalus logistinis aprūpinimas, nepakankamos paj?gos, chaoti?kas valdymas ir bandymas ?vykdyti ne?vykdoma. ?ia ukrainie?iai rusus pama?u ?sules? kaip kruopas“ ir privert? bla?kytis, bandyti manevruoti, atsitraukti ir pana?iai.

Ukrainie?iams sp?jus sustiprinti gynyb? pasidar? akivaizdu, kad sukaupt? paj?g? nepakanka puolimui. Rusai prie Kyjivo buvo sukaup? apie 30 - 35 tūkst. kari?, ir tai visose trijose kryptyse, ?enkli dalis j? netgi ne prie pat Kyjivo.

Aviacijos palaikymo stoka, d?ka puikiai i?d?stytos ir u?maskuotos prie?l?ktuvin?s Ukrainos sostin?s gynybos, visi?kai nubrauk? bet koki? galimyb? ka?k? nuveikti Kyjive. Itin agresyvus ukrainie?i? veikimas ?iaur?s vakaruose ir geb?jimas kariauti gyvenviet?se, visi?kai sukaust? rusus mi?kuose prie Kyjivo. D?l tos pa?ios prie?asties rusams nepavyko ir Kyjivo apsupimas – gerai paruo?ta ir manevrin? gynyba.

Yra ir daugiau prie?as?i?, kod?l rusams nepasisek? prie Kyjivo. J? atsitraukimas buvo akivaizdus suvokimas, kad jie neturi joki? ?ans? paimti Kyjiv?, kurio gynyba agresyvi, besiginan?i? persvara daugiau nei akivaizdi.

Kai prie?as aplink, ne gyvyb?, o garb? saugok – teigia ukrainie?i? patarl? (Коли навколо вороги, то не життя, а честь бережи). Rusams ties Kyjivu nepavyko padaryti nei vieno, nei kito.

??iandien akys krypsta ? Rytus ir Pietus.

Donbaso regione situacija komplikuojasi, ta?iau kol kas neai?ku kiek. Rusai iriasi pirmyn, ta?iau negalime susidaryti tikslaus vaizdo kiek ir kur. Rus? d?mesys sutelktas ? Slovjansko ir Kramatorsko u??mimui. Nelengva u?duotis, labai. Ukrainie?iai stiprina savo paj?gas, o rusai skuba. Skuba, nuolat patirdami rimt? nuostoli?.

Chersono srotyje pana?u, kad situacija palengva art?ja link kulminacijos. Rusai spaud?iami prie Dniepro, Kyvij Rih kryptis ?strigusi, ukrainie?iai atmu?in?ja rusus i? kaim?.

Jeigu tendencija nesikeis rusai greitu laiku ne? kuda?i? i? Chersono vakarin?s pus?s. Kod?l? Nes neturi galimyb?s ?enkliai sustiprinti ten esan?ias paj?gas, o to rusams labai reikia.

Liks atviras klausimas ar ukrainie?iams pavyks persikelti per tilt? ? rytin? Chersono pus?. Rusai tikrai griaus tilt? atsitrauk?. Ar ukrainie?iams pavyks sutrukdyti rusams? Klausimas kol kas be atsakymo.

Guod?ia tai, kad ukrainie?iai daugelyje viet? s?kmingai kontratakuoja, perima rus? u?imtas vietoves.

Karas t?siasi, auk? bus dar tikrai daug.

________________

ENGLISH VERSION

Concentration

We can now say with certainty that hostilities have moved to the east and south of Ukraine. But before we begin to look at what is happening there, we would like to explain why the Russians have fled from the direction of Kyiv.

The scale of the offensive and the actions carried out suggest that this was one of several priority areas of attack. It is evident that the Russians did not foresee the course that the war would have taken.?

So, what happened and why?

The Russians concentrated their attack on Kiev from as many as three directions, with the clear aim of encircling and occupying it. They have miscalculated and miscalculated by a lot. The chosen directions of attack from the Belarusian side were severely restricted by woodland, limiting the movement of equipment and the ability to maneuver.?

The Ukrainian defense at Chernyhiv was extremely well prepared, the success of which was due to the competence of the commanders and the correct choice of the military forces (reinforced tank brigade). Meanwhile, the Russian forces attacking from Mazyriv and through Pripyat met less resistance and, although with strong Ukrainian resistance, broke into the suburbs of Kyiv.?

A crucial factor that did not work was the Russian paratroopers’ landing and the complete failure at Gostomel airport. The Russians were stuck in this direction because of their complete incompetence with logistics, as demonstrated by the huge logistics convoy which not only blocked the replenishment of the units itself, but also prevented the movement of combat vehicles.?

Another peculiarity of this axis was the excessive density of combat vehicles and units on the outskirts of Kyiv. They made it difficult for themselves to maneuver. Trying to use airborne and special forces for a conventional offensive was a very foolish decision. Fortunately for the Ukrainians. They have high speed but low combat power, which is why they were crushed on the outskirts of Bucha and Gostomel and in Irpin.?

The third direction of attack is towards Kyiv via Sumy. Long distance, maximum movement distance and practically zero security of movement. An adventurism, not otherwise. And extremely expensive. The Ukrainians felt like they were on safari, destroying an easy prey.?

Even when the Russians approached Kyiv, they were virtually helpless – they had minimal logistical support, inadequate forces, chaotic management and were attempting the impossible. Here the Ukrainians gradually "drove" the Russians to distraction, trying to maneuver, retreat and so on.?

Once the Ukrainians had time to reinforce their defenses, it became clear that the Russian forces were not sufficient for an offensive. The Russians had about 30-35 000 troops massed at Kyiv, and this in all three directions, a significant part of them not even close to Kyiv.?

The lack of air support, thanks to the perfectly positioned and camouflaged air defense of the Ukrainian capital, completely wiped out any possibility of doing anything in Kyiv. The extremely aggressive Ukrainian action in the north-west and the ability to fight in the settlements completely tied down the Russians in the forests around Kyiv. For the same reason, the Russians failed to encircle Kyiv - a well-prepared and maneuverable defense.?

There are more reasons why the Russians failed at Kyiv. Their retreat was a clear realization that they had no chance of taking Kyiv, whose defenses are aggressive and numbered in favor of Ukraine.?

Today, all eyes are on the East and the South.?

In the Donbass, the situation is getting more complicated, but it is not yet clear how much. The Russians are advancing, but we cannot get a precise picture of how much and where. The Russian focus is on taking Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Not an easy task at all.?The Ukrainians are reinforcing their forces and the Russians are rushing. Rushing, with serious combat losses every time.?

In Kherson, the situation seems to be slowly coming to a zenith. The Russians are under pressure on the Dnipr, the direction of the Kyvij Rih is stuck, the Ukrainians are pushing the Russians out of the villages.?

If the trend continues, the Russians will soon be fleeing from the western side of Kherson. Why? Because they do not have the possibility to significantly reinforce the forces there, which the Russians need badly.?

It remains an open question whether the Ukrainians will be able to cross the bridge to the eastern side of Kherson. The Russians will certainly destroy the bridge in retreat. Will the Ukrainians be able to prevent the Russians? The question is yet unanswered.?

It is comforting to note that the Ukrainians are successfully counterattacking in many places, taking over Russian-held areas.

#ukraine #war #update