UKRAINE, status update, 2022-03-24, 9:30

(ENGLISH VERSION below)

Pirmas m?nuo

Nuo karo prad?ios jau pra?jo m?nuo, per kur? pamat?me daug baim?s, kraujo, netek?i?, praradim?. Ta?iau svarbiausias dalykas, kur? pamat?me – viltis. Viltis, kad Ukraina atsilaikys ir laim?s kar?. ?iandien tuo jau beveik neabejojame, kadangi j?g? persvara ir dinamika karo zonoje krypsta ukrainie?i? naudai.

Nesitikime, kad netgi esant dideliam paj?g? papildymui rusai sugeb?t? ?veikti ukrainie?ius. ?enkl?, jog rusai gal?t? pritraukti didelius paj?gumus, kol kas n?ra.

Tik-Tok ?e??n? paj?gos, neturin?ios jokios karo patirties, tik geban?ios saugiai pasifilmuoti, prakti?kai visos jau pasitrauk? i? Ukrainos. Keli ma?i padaliniai dar veikia Mariupolio ir Kyjivo prieigose, prakti?kai tiesiogiai beveik nedalyvaudami kovos veiksmuose.

Sirijos kovotojai pana?u neturi jokio noro dideliais būriais traukti kariauti, suprasdami, kad karas Ukrainoje neturi nieko bendro su karu, kuris vyko Sirijoje. I?girtieji ?Vagner“ kovotojai smagiai atsigul? po ukrainie?i? kari? peiliu. ?i? paj?g? likutis netur?s jokios reik?m?s tolesnei karo eigai.

Per pastar?sias 24 valandas nei vienoje i? kryp?i? ne?vyko esmini? poky?i?. Su nekantrumu laukiame ?ini? i? Kyjivo ?iaur?s vakar?, kur keli? dien? b?gyje tikim?s dalies rus? paj?g? apsupimo. Tam yra sukurtos visos prielaidos.

Kontratakos vyksta jau daugelyje kryp?i? ir pakankamai s?kmingai. Ukrainie?iai sugeb?jo sukaustyti rus? paj?gas ir i?naudoja savo paj?g? mobilum?. S?kmingiausios kontratakos vyksta Kyjivo, Sumy, Charkovo kryptyse.

Tuo pa?iu esame labai atsargūs, kadangi bet koks pernelyg greitas kontratakavimas gali lemti didelius ukrainie?i? nuostolius. Labiausiai kontratakas ir s?km? jose sietume su atbundan?iu pavasariu. Pietuose stepi? unikalumas ir apsodintos med?i? juostos, ?aluma kituose regionuose, sudarys puikias s?lygas ukrainie?iams ?jungti ?enkliai auk?tesn? diversij? pavar?.

I?lieka rizika, jog keliose vietose ukrainie?i? paj?gos bus apsuptos, ta?iau bent jau kol kas neatrodo, kad tai būt? greitai ?gyvendinama ir tur?t? didel? ?tak? karo eigai.

?iandien ryte ?vyko vienas itin svarbus ?vykis. Dar laukiame galutinio patvirtinimo, ta?iau tai ko gero bus dar vienas t? siurpriz? apie kuriuos pus? lūp? u?simin?me anks?iau – rus? karo laivo susprogdinimas uoste. Ukrainie?iai gal?jo panaudoti ?ias priemones: diversin? nar? grup?, atak? i? oro arba artilerijos ap?audym?. Pastarieji du ma?ai tik?tini. Labiausiai tik?tina ukrainie?i? diversin?s nar? komandos veikla.

Ne tiek aktualu pats diversijos faktas, kuomet sunaikintas didelis desanto laivas, kiek tai, kad rusai nebegal?s laisvai naudotis uostais – bus paraly?iuoti j? planai Berdianske, o jei pavykt? u?imti Mariupol?, ir jame. Kai uostas nesaugus, laivyba jame stoja, eikvojami resursai saugumo u?tikrinimui ir t.t.

Ukrainie?iai tikrai savo ki?en?se laiko dar ne vien? siurpriz? ir kozir?. Dar nemat?me kai kuri? j? paj?gum? panaudojimo ?rodym?. Maloniai nuteikia faktas, kad ukrainie?iai i?laiko strategin? kantryb? ir rusams smogia tuomet, kai smūgio fakt? gali i?naudoti geriausiai. Kantriai laukiame ir mes.

Apibendrinant pirm? karo m?nes?

Jeigu prad?ioje buvo baimi?, kad Ukrain? rusai pereis greit ir be didesnio pasiprie?inimo, nes Ukrainos kariuomen? neparuo?ta, silpna ir pasiduos be mū?io, tai dabar galime konstatuoti prie?ing? situacij?.

Ukrainos kariuomen?s vadovyb? ruo??si ir ?inojo apie rus? puolim?, jo lauk?. Ukrainos kariuomen? nuo 2014-? met? ?gyvendino daugyb? poky?i?, tiek mentaliai, tiek fizi?kai. Apsirūpino ginkluote, paruo?? personal?, valdymo sistemas, gynybos planus, atliko rimt? ?valgybin? darb?, i?gaud? ?nipus j?gos struktūrose, sukaup? amunicijos ir ?audmen?, aprūpinimo atsargas, modernizavo ginkluot?.

Tik tinkamo pasiruo?imo d?ka ukrainie?iai dabar gali s?kmingai t?sti kovos veiksmus. Karas nebus trumpas, ta?iau mums jau nebekyla joki? abejoni? kas j? laim?s.

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ENGLISH VERSION

First month

It has been a month since the start of the war, and we have seen a lot of fear, blood, loss, loss of life. But the most important thing we have seen is hope. Hope that Ukraine will stand up and win the war. Today, we are almost certain of that, because the balance of power and the dynamics in the war zone are turning in the Ukrainians‘ favour.?

We do not expect the Russians to be able to defeat the Ukrainians, even with a large reinforcement of forces. There are no indications that the Russians will be able to attract a large force.

The Tik-Tok Chechen forces, which have no military experience, only the ability to film safely, have virtually all left Ukraine. A few small units are still active on the outskirts of Mariupol and Kyiv, with virtually no direct involvement in the fighting.?

The Syrian fighters do not seem to have any desire to fight, realising since the war in Ukraine has nothing to do with the war in Syria. The drunken Vagner fighters are having fun lying under the knife of the Ukrainian soldiers. The remnants of this force will have no relevance to the future course of the war.?

There have been no major changes in either direction in the last 24 hours. We are eagerly awaiting news from the north-west of Kyiv, where we expect to see part of the Russian forces encircled within a few days. All the preconditions are in place.?

Counterattacks are already under way in many directions and with considerable success. The Ukrainians have managed to encircle the Russian forces and are exploiting the mobility of their forces. The most successful counterattacks are taking place in the directions of Kyiv, Sumy and Kharkov.

At the same time, we are being very cautious, as any counter-attack too quickly could lead to heavy Ukrainian losses. We would attribute counterattacks and their success to the coming spring. The uniqueness of the steppes in the south and the planted tree belts, and the greenery in other regions, will provide the perfect conditions for the Ukrainians to shift into a much higher gear of diversion.?

There is still a risk that Ukrainian forces will be encircled in a few places, but at least for the time being it does not seem likely that this would be quickly realised and would have a significant impact on the course of the war.?

One particularly important development took place this morning. We are still awaiting final confirmation, but it is likely to be another of those surprises that we have half-mouthed about before – destruction of a Russian warship in the harbour. The Ukrainians could have used the following means: a diversionary group, an air attack or artillery shelling. The latter two are unlikely. The most likely is a Ukrainian divers team.?

The fact of the diversion itself, with the destruction of a large landing craft, is less relevant than the fact that the Russians will no longer be able to freely use the ports, which will cripple their plans in Berdyansk and, if they succeed in taking Mariupol, in Mariupol as well. When a port is insecure, shipping stops, resources are wasted on security, etc.

The Ukrainians certainly have more than one surprise and trump card in their pockets. We have not yet seen evidence of some of their capabilities being used. It is encouraging that the Ukrainians are maintaining their strategic patience and striking the Russians when they can make the best use of the fact of the strike. We are waiting patiently too.

To sum up the first month of the war. If at the beginning there were fears that the Russians would pass through Ukraine quickly and without much resistance, because the Ukrainian army was unprepared, weak and would surrender without a fight, we can now state the opposite.?

The leadership of the Ukrainian army was prepared and aware of the Russian offensive and was waiting for it. The Ukrainian army has undergone many changes since 2014, both mentally and physically. It has equipped itself with weapons, prepared personnel, management systems, defence plans, carried out serious reconnaissance work, hunted down spies in the power structures, stockpiled ammunition and ammunition, stockpiled supplies, and modernised its weapons.

It is only thanks to proper preparation that the Ukrainians are now able to successfully continue their combat operations. The war will not be a short one, but we are no longer in any doubt as to who will win the war

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