Ukraine after Munich
By now you have likely heard about the high drama at the Munich Security Conference, where U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance scolded a crowd of European leaders about their continent’s retreat from “some of its own fundamental values.” Though Vance told Europe early on in his speech that “we are on the same team,” FP’s Rishi Iyengar and Keith Johnson report that the more lasting impression for the audience came with his final words: “Good luck to all of you, God bless you.”
So, with the postwar consensus lost somewhere over the Atlantic, what happens to Ukraine? An answer seems imminent. On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Saudi Arabia to discuss the future of Ukraine without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the table. Waning U.S. support for Ukraine has been received in Moscow “like Christmas, Easter, and New Year’s all rolled into one,” journalist Alexey Kovalev writes.
Meanwhile, is the rare-earth deal that U.S. President Donald Trump seemed excited about—and which Zelensky hoped to strike in Munich—dead? That agreement, in which Ukraine would exchange its mineral resources for continued U.S. aid, was always going to be tricky for both sides to pull off, FP’s Christina Lu reports.
If a peace is to be achieved, Russia must be convinced that “its gains will outweigh its losses,” former Ukrainian diplomat Vasyl Filipchuk argues. That means Ukraine not joining NATO, which U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said last week was off the table. But Filipchuk argues that the United States must be prepared to defend that neutrality. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, laid out a plan along those lines last year.
Though Kellogg is a key member of Trump’s national security brain trust, his mention of “security guarantees”—presumably issued by the United States—is starting to look marginal to the America First project as asserted by Vance, Hegseth, and others. Perhaps that’s why Kellogg is headed not to Saudi Arabia but to Ukraine this week.
Whether in Riyadh, Kyiv, or elsewhere, negotiators might need to give up on hoping for grand bargains. Two experts from the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, Michael Kimmage and Maxim Trudolubov, argue that “[n]egotiations should have the more modest goal of depriving the war of its intensity.” To that end, and as FP’s Keith Johnson has written, there is still plenty of scope for Washington to put a bigger squeeze on the Kremlin via sanctions. That’s assuming, of course, that Trump still wants to.—Amelia Lester, deputy editor
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At the Munich Security Conference, Finnish President Alexander Stubb sat down with FP’s Ravi Agrawal. The two discussed trade tensions with the Trump White House, the rise of the far right across Europe, and the fate of Ukraine. Watch now.?
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The End of Human Rights?
Feb. 27 | 11 a.m. EST
Are human rights at a modern low point? One can certainly make that case, with conflict on multiple continents, refugee crises, and the surge in authoritarianism. Kenneth Roth was the executive director of Human Rights Watch for nearly 30 years. Roth will sit down with FP’s Ravi Agrawal to put in context the state of human rights today and how to achieve better outcomes. Register now and join FP to submit your questions ahead of the conversation.
Exercise Your Mind
How many Canadian provincial and territorial premiers visited Washington to meet with White House officials last Wednesday?
A. 5
B. 7
C. 10
D. 13
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Answer: D. The premiers sought to dissuade the Trump administration from planned tariffs by highlighting the United States’ high level of economic integration with its northern neighbor, which Brad Setser recently discussed on FP Live.?
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1 周JD is spot on. The West has been in decline for the past 3 decades, after the Fall of the Soviet Union, without a true "existential threat of annihilation", had been replaced with the religion of "Climate Change" and the guidance of the World Economic Forum. Each leader has been handpicked from WEF future leader courses to promote a World Government agenda and abandon their National identities in favor of "Open Borders". Mr. Vance is trying to awaken the People of Europe to the fact that their leadership has sold them short. He's the right man to deliver the message and to call out the hypocrisy by NATO countries with the Ukraine War. JD hopefully, will be our next President in 2028. He's on his way to becoming a very polished and distinguished servant leader to our Nation.