UKRAINE, 2022-03-11, 9:30

(ENGLISH VERSION below)

Nuovargis

Gyvenime taip jau yra, kad pra?jus ma?daug dviem savait?ms po kokio sukre?ian?io ?vykio, ?mogus su tuo susitaiko, jau būna i?gyven?s pat? blogiausi? jausm?. Prasideda gijimo procesas.

Ma?daug t? pat? matome ir kare su Ukraina. Baisumai ir ?iaurumai nesibaigia, visi ?enklai rodo, kad karas u?truks. Abi kariaujan?ios pus?s koreguoja savo veiksmus, taktik? idant pasiekt? savo tiksl?.

Tuo tarpu visuomen? pradeda kitu kampu ?iūr?ti ? Ukrainos – Rusijos kar?. Tarptautin? bendruomen? atsigavo nuo ?oko ir vis re?iau besidomi ?vyki? t?kme Ukrainoje. Ukrainie?iai stengiasi visomis i?gal?mis prisitaikyti prie karo stovio, tai pradeda darytis rutina.

Na, o tuo tarpu Ukrainoje karo veiksmai vyksta pilnu intensyvumu beveik visose kryptyse. Mariupolis ir toliau, nors ir apsuptas, vis dar laikosi.

Kyjivo ?iaur?s vakaruose prakti?kai joki? esmini? poky?i? nevyksta, situacija ?tempta, ta?iau rusams nepavyksta priart?ti prie Kyjivo. Pastebimi kovos technikos ir ugnies priemoni? koncentravimo ?enklai. Rusai bando pasiruo?ti placdarm? puolan?i? kari? palaikymui artilerijos ugnimi. ? rytus nuo Kyjivo prie?as stabdomas dar gerokai prie? Kyjivo rib?.

Ukrainie?iai skelbia numu?? 10 rus? orlaivi?, ypa? daug ?turmo l?ktuv?. Tai parodo, kad rusai deda dideles pastangas pralau?ti ukrainie?i? gynybas tose vietose, kur jiems sunkiai sekasi: ?ernigovas, Charkovas, Donecko regionas. Aviacijos pagalba puolantiems p?stininkams yra labai svarbi.

Ukrainoje jau pasteb?ti pirmieji rezervist? padaliniai, stoj? ? kov?. Tai rodo, kad rusai ? kovas Ukrainoje panaudojo visas arba beveik visas prie? konflikt? prie sienos sutelktas paj?gas. Tai gera ?inia ukrainie?iams.

Pagal ?iandienos veiksm? dinamik? ir rus? panaudotas paj?gas galime teigti, kad rusams norint s?kmingai t?sti kovos veiksmus, prireiks ?enkli? papildom? paj?g? su kovos technika. ?vesti naujas paj?gas, ypa? jei tai n?ra susidirb?s dalinys, gali būti labai sunku. Tokio dalinio efektyvumas bus ?enkliai ma?esnis nei gerai paruo?to dalinio.

Kiek dar paj?g? gali rusai atsi?sti ? Ukrain? - kol kas sunku pasakyti. Mūs? vertinimu, galbūt iki 50 -100 proc. to dyd?io, kuris buvo suplanuotas operacijai. To tikrai nepakaks, norint u?imti Ukrain?, juo labiau, kad ukrainie?iai kombinuodami savo paj?gumus ir gaudami vis daugiau paramos i? u?sienio, i?laiko ir netgi tam tikruose regionuose didina savo kovin? gali?.

Per kelias savaites ?vyko daug pasikeitim? mū?io lauke, taktikos naudojime. Dabar, kai rus? puolimas surakintas, vis didesn? vaidmen? vaidina ?valgybin? informacija (ant?emin?, dronais ir t.t.), abi pus?s prisitaiko prie prie?ininko kariavimo būdo, jau ?ino silpn?sias ir stipri?sias puses.

Vis tikslesnis ir tikslingesnis artilerijos ugnies, aviacijos panaudojimas. Ukrainie?iai ir toliau s?kmingai vykdo i?puolius prie? rus? kolonas, sutelktus padalinius. Rusams pana?u, kad ir su dideliais nuostoliais, visgi pavyko prie?akinius padalinius papildyti kuru, ?audmenimis, maisto atsargomis.

Situacija ?tempta, ukrainie?iai nepasiruo?? be kovos atiduoti savo ?em?. ?iuo metu sunku ??velgti prie?astis, kurios leist? patik?ti, kad rusai sugeb?t? u?imti toki? didel? ?al?. Dabartiniame kontekste nematome rusams galimybi? u?imti net pus? jos.

Nuo ?iandien ap?valgas rengsime vien? kart? per dien?. Esant poreikiui bus daugiau ?ra?? ir ap?valg?.

____________________________

ENGLISH VERSION

Fatigue

It's a fact of life that about two weeks after a devastating event, a person has come to terms with it, having already experienced the worst of it. The healing process begins.

We are seeing roughly the same thing in the war with Ukraine. The horrors and atrocities are likely nowhere near being over, and all the signs are that the war will continue. Both sides are adjusting their actions and tactics to achieve their goals.

Meanwhile, the public is beginning to see the Ukraine-Russia war from a different angle. The international community has recovered from the shock and is becoming slightly less interested in the events in Ukraine. The Ukrainians are trying their best to adapt to the state of war and it is becoming a routine. Such a trend will most likely continue, only by some “grand-events” temporary interrupting its flow.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, hostilities are going on at full intensity in almost every direction. Mariupol continues to hold its ground, although surrounded.

In the north-west of Kyiv, there are practically no major developments, the situation is tense, but the Russians are not getting any closer to Kyiv. However, there are signs of a concentration of Russian combat equipment and firepower. The Russians are trying to prepare a bridgehead to support the attacking troops with artillery fire. East of Kyiv, the enemy is stopped well before the Kyiv border.

The Ukrainians claim to have shot down 10 Russian aircraft, in particular many attack aircraft. This indicates that the Russians are making a major effort to break through Ukrainian defenses in places where they are struggling - Chernigov, Kharkiv, the Donetsk region. Air support for the attacking infantry is very important.

The first reservist units have already been spotted in Ukraine and have joined the fight. This shows that the Russians have deployed all, or almost all, of the pre-conflict forces mobilized along the border in Ukraine. This is good news for the Ukrainians.

Based on the dynamics of today's action and the forces deployed by the Russians, we can say that the Russians will need significant additional forces with combat equipment to continue fighting successfully. The introduction of a new force, especially if it is not an experienced unit, may be very challenging. The effectiveness of such a unit will be considerably lower than that of a well-prepared one.

It is difficult to say how many more troops the Russians may send to Ukraine. Our estimate is perhaps up to 50-100% of the size planned for the operation. In our estimation, this will certainly not be enough to take Ukraine, especially as the Ukrainians, through a combination of their own capabilities and the increasing amount of received foreign support, are maintaining, and even increasing their combat power in certain regions.

Over the past few weeks, there have been many changes on the battlefield and in the use of tactics. Now that the Russian offensive is locked in, intelligence (ground, drones, etc.) is playing an increasingly important role, both sides are adapting to their opponent's way of fighting and are already aware of their weaknesses and strengths.

The use of Russian artillery fire and aviation is becoming more and more precise and targeted. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians continue to launch successful attacks against Russian convoys and concentrated units. The Russians seem to have succeeded in replenishing their forward units with fuel, ammunition, and food supplies, albeit with significant losses.

The situation is tense, the Ukrainians are not prepared to give up their land without a fight. From today’s point of view the Russians are unlikely to take such a large country or even half it.

From today onwards, we will be reviewing the situation once a day. There will be more posts and reviews if situation demands it.

#ukraine #war #update