The UK has only 16 Days to Turn The Boat on Covid-19.

Yesterday’s announcement (21 March 2020) of 5,018 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the UK proves, without doubt, that we are at the same point as Italy 16 days ago. Predicting the future can be difficult, but not in this case. The UK trajectory is just too similar to Italy and we are heading for a public health catastrophe, unless we do something different.

With the sun shining in the UK, it feels like being in Italy but rest assured, you are lucky if you are not. This is a unique opportunity, not to be missed, we have a windows of 16 days to change the outcome by acting now.

There are two ways Coronavirus spreads, Community-Acquired or Person-to-Person, or “where you go” and “who you see”. Considering Italy has imposed a national quarantine since 9th March, which was 13 days ago, the disease progression in Italy does not seem to slow down.

Assuming everyone in Italy is staying at home, this means that Italy is experiencing “household transmissions” by family members, which were initially infected by their community. With this, the “flattening of the curve” can only be achieved through simultaneous quarantine and curtailment of household transmissions translated into “stop going out” and “stop seeing people”. Otherwise the UK will experience the same health catastrophe as Italy.

If we manage to keep the number of infections below 15,000 by the end of March we know everyone is working together, but if not, we will hit 25,034 or more instead. Don't be foolish, the results will be announced on the 1st April.

The epidemic outbreak curve in the UK is following this equation: y = 0.0234x4 - 1.2921x3 + 24.366x2 - 166.57x + 294.32 with a starting point of 16 Feb 2020 where x=1. 

If you would like to evaluate your Health Risk of Covid-19 please visit: www.coronavirusrisk.org based on this article: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/risk-calculator-predicting-mortality-coronavirus-prof-dr-harald-braun/