The UK government's original plan
For my ease of reference, here is my summary of the government's original "mitigation" plan for coronavirus, based on this paper from 3 March.
The UK Government’s Paper: Coronavirus action plan: a guide to what you can expect across the UK
9 March 2020
There are four phases to the UK plan: contain, delay, research and mitigate.
Contain
The main task in this phase is to detect early cases, follow up close contacts and prevent the disease taking hold in this country for as long as is reasonably possible. Flights entering the country are being monitored and have to declare that all on-board are well.
There are new powers for medical and public health professionals and the police to detail and direct people in quarantined areas who are suspected of having the virus or at risk.
Delay
If the disease does take hold then the plan will move to the “delay” phase, in order to slow its spread. This should (i) lower the peak impact and (ii) push the peak out of the winter season. The rationale for avoiding the winter if possible is that health services will have more capacity once the cold and flu season is over. Delay will also, potentially, buy time for the development of drugs.
Actions to delay the disease could include school closures, encouraging home working and reducing large-scale gatherings. Large-scale quarantine is not specifically mentioned, but the new powers (mentioned above) suggest that it is possible that areas could be quarantined. However, the paper also says that the impact of all these measures will be judged against their impact on society, and it is an objective to keep the country running as normally as possible.
Research
The UK is participating in the global research effort including giving ￡20 million to the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and ￡20 million to a coordinated UK research effort.
Mitigate
The paper says that “[b]ased on experience with previous outbreaks, it may be that widespread exposure in the UK is inevitable”. If the disease becomes widespread then the plan will move to the “mitigate” phase in order to provide the best care possible for people who become ill, support hospitals to maintain essential services and ensure ongoing support for people ill in the community to minimise the overall impact of the disease on society, public services and on the economy.
Specific measures could include:
- early discharge from hospital into home care
- emergency services using existing contingency plans (such as police focusing on serious crimes and public order if may officers were ill)
- businesses facing short-term cash flow issues may be able to use the existing HMRC Time to Pay system to delay tax payments (available on a case-by-case basis)
- non-urgent NHS care may be delayed
- NHS leavers and retirees could be called back.
What the public is being asked to do
The government paper asks us all to do the following:
- follow authorities’ advice (e.g. on hand washing)
- use trustworthy information sources like www.nhs.uk
- check on elderly and vulnerable friends and relatives
- use health services only when necessary
- accept advice to self-isolate and treatment advice
- keep checking for new advice.