UK Election: what should the new government do about climate-driven migration? [Part 1]

This is not a simple question. Supposing the new government is keen to act, what options do they have? What would actually work, given the complex nature of climate-driven migration? And what might be politically realistic, given the controversies surrounding the issue?

This is the first of four posts that are going to cover the context, international policy processes, visas, migration as a form of climate adaptation and finally the red herrings - the options that get lots of air time, but aren’t going to work.

Here is the entire series…

1. Context
2. The UK on the global stage
3. The role of the UK's visa system
4. Helping People Use Migration to Achieve Climate Resilience
5. Red Herrings: climate and migration policies the UK should steer clear of
6. Red Herrings 2: Policies the UK government should steer clear of

First, it’s worth unpacking why policy-making on climate-driven migration is so fraught, and why it’s so tricky for the UK in particular. This involves a short diversion into some of the patterns and causes of human movement driven by climate change.

Most climate-driven migration is internal and takes place in the climate-vulnerable countries of the global south. Most people impacted by climate change don’t cross international borders. When people are displaced by sudden climate-related disasters like floods and hurricanes they usually move the shortest distance possible. Moving is about finding safety quickly.

When people move because of slowly unfolding disasters like drought, they usually move to find work, again moving the shortest distance possible. Moving shorter distances is usually simpler and cheaper. People often use migration as a temporary survival strategy, moving away and then returning as economic and environmental factors change.

Climate change rarely acts alone. Climate change is usually part of a web of causes that influence someone’s decision to migrate. There are certainly many people who have a climate change dimension to their movement. Climate change is definitely in the mix of causes. Climate change is certainly altering overall patterns of migration globally. But it’s very difficult to isolate a group of people who are moving exclusively because of climate change. It’s even harder to isolate a distinct group of people who are moving to the UK exclusively because of climate change.

This means policy-making on climate-driven migration is complicated. We need to identify policies that work in spite of the complex drivers of migration. This means that the policies often need to be “agnostic” about the driving force behind someone’s migration or displacement. The policies need to work regardless of whether climate change has played a big or small role in someone’s decision to move. The policies also need to function without perfect information. It’s not always possible to know the extent to which someone’s migration has been shaped by climate change.

For the UK, progress on climate-driven migration is not about creating a new do-it-all policy. It’s not about creating a policy that works exclusively for “climate migrants”. Instead, we need a patchwork approach to progress. The UK needs to extend and revise several existing measures, lean in more strongly to global processes where we are already present, and roll back some of the most harmful things we’ve been getting wrong.

Over the next few posts I’ll sketch out a series of policy options that the new government could pursue. Depending on your view, these could either be quick wins, or require years of advocacy and expenditure of political capital to make them happen. I’ll let those in the know argue that out.

Next time: the global policy process on climate change and migration and the role the UK should play in it.