The UK could be at risk of blackouts in 2028 - we need to act now!

Could you cope if a rolling blackout saw you sat in the darkness, with no heat or electricity and those all-important sources of entertainment, such as your TV, laptop, tablet or phone, out of battery and unable to be charged? I’m willing to bet you’re shaking your head while answering. However, this may be a regular occurrence in the future if we don’t all act now. ??

In fact, new research has warned that delays to French-built nuclear power stations will leave the UK at risk of blackouts by 2028. This is partially due to a ‘perfect storm’ of increased demand because of Net Zero, the closure of existing nuclear power stations and delays to the delivery of Hinkley Point C, which is being built by French state-owned power company EDF.

This also coincides with new government data revealing that customers will have ￡2.8 billion added to their bills in 2028, averaging around ￡100 per householder, to pay power station owners to provide generating capacity.

In fact, the analysis I read from Public First the other day predicted that the UK’s demand for power will exceed baseload capacity by 7.5GW at peak times by 2028. This shortfall is equivalent to the power used by more than seven million UK homes.

It’s very much a concern, as an energy shortfall is expected. This is due to ageing British power infrastructure closing in the coming years, with Ratcliffe-on-Soar, the UK’s last remaining coal-fired power station, scheduled to shut down in 2024. Similarly, four UK nuclear power stations are set to be decommissioned in the next four years.

Conversely, demand for electricity is set to increase sharply as the UK attempts to move away from fossil fuels and adopt technology such as heat pumps and electric vehicles.

The UK could be dependent on international generation

If the UK is to suffer a shortfall, we could be left further dependent on international generation, seeing power imported via undersea cable from France, Norway and other countries across Europe.

You may not realise it but the UK already relies on its European neighbours for electricity supplies, with 13% of the UK’s electricity imported from other countries.

So, what can we all do to prevent the risk of rolling blackouts here in the UK? The answer may be found in load shifting.

So, what is load shifting?

You may have heard of load shifting or may have seen offers from energy providers that are attempting to encourage customers to reduce their electricity usage during times of peak demand. Essentially, load shifting is an electricity management technique that sees load demand shifted from peak hours to off-peak hours of the day. When total system demand increases, electricity prices can rise. Conversely, when total system demand decreases, electricity prices can fall.

However, load shedding works by rotating power outages or reducing power consumption until demand decreases. The aim is to relieve stress on a primary energy source when demand for electricity is greater than the primary power source can supply. Essentially, this will look to prevent a power source or the power grid from overloading.

Energy storage solutions

Of course, it may not always be beneficial to load shift electricity to off-peak intervals just to benefit from electricity market prices. This is where battery energy storage systems can be incredibly beneficial, as they will empower end users with the ability to decouple energy consumption and payment for that consumption.

A good example of this would be industrial or commercial property owners. They would be able to reduce their electricity bills by charging any on-site battery storage overnight during off-peak hours and then utilise that stored energy during the day when electricity prices traditionally peak.

A reduction in energy consumption

It’s important that we, as building services consultants, look at what can be done to encourage end users and the general public to become more energy neutral. Essentially, this means that any energy use of a building by fossil fuels is entirely compensated by sustainable energy produced there. Basically, any energy needed for the building is generated by that building and nowhere else.

This could be done by anything from ventilation and lighting through to hot water and heating and cooling. For example, the installation of solar panels could help end users generate some, or all, of their own energy. Doing so could potentially earn them some additional funds in the process.

During the design and construction of a new build or refurbishment project, building services consultants need to identify the benefits of producing energy on-site. Doing so, and helping consumers and contractors understand the need for doing what can be done to reduce energy consumption and the demands on the grid, could make a huge difference to the UK in the future.

What can be done to increase understanding?

While energy suppliers are trying to encourage customers to switch the times they use electricity to off-peak hours on days when the supply is stretched, very few consumers are actually have taken up the scheme.

These schemes allow their smart meter customers to reduce usage during peak demand times and be paid in the process. For example, for every unit of energy customers save compared to their normal usage during a specific period of time, these energy suppliers look to pay their customers ￡4 on average, potentially saving customers around ￡100 over the course of a winter.

As building services consultants, now is the time for us to provide customers with more information and encourage them to consider taking part in such schemes. After all, by doing so, they could help to balance the National Grid and lower the UK’s independence on gas.

While the UK isn’t predicted to start suffering with national blackouts until 2028, the warning signs are already there. Besides, with how quickly time passes, it won’t be long before we’re staring down the barrel of the UK blackout gun. So, with that in mind, there’s no better time to start looking at what we can all do to reduce the national energy reliance and consumption. ?