UK Beyond the Crossroads?: EI Weekend 3056
A deep dive into the UK where new government optimism is already giving way to clear despair. The Tories were useless but this is worse…
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On this day in 1934, the value of the pound sterling dropped below the $5.00 mark for the first time since devaluation.
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MACRO THOUGHTS
The UK is not a happy place. More Than 50% Of British Voters Reckon The Country Is Going In The Wrong Direction (Ipsos) was the polling result within 6 weeks of the Labour government winning a mega landslide in seats with a gutless electoral outcome (Majority Of Brits Believe UK Is Heading In Wrong Direction | The Spectator).
The UK needs a massive revolution to regain anything like ‘envy of the world’ status. The blob is delusional and unfit for purpose while the new Labour government is already a crony sham ridden fiasco puppet regime of the same failed blob.
IN BIGWORLD
From Exchange Invest 3054: August 29th
Where Afghanistan was clearly the nadir of the Biden administration’s correlation with competence (perceived by many to be a sub-zero relationship), matters in the Middle East have not been markedly improving.
The $230 million ‘humanitarian pier’ that the Americans moored off the coast of Gaza was a centrepiece of Joe Brezhnev’s State of the Union speech in March. The project has since been mothballed after a spend so lavish arguably only ASX-CHESS replacements could rival it from the parish for spend and epic lack of successful execution.
Tricky points with the project included the platform not being built to withstand inclement weather. Who knew??…The 2.5 million square KM Mediterranean sea was apparently not compliant with perma-calm waters required for the platform to stay in situ and above the waves. Thus some sections of causeway broke off and washed up on the Frishman beach frequented by sunbathers in Tel Aviv.
Fortunately?—?for some?—?the platform did operate for some days. In the first week, 75% of the aid delivered was stolen by Palestinians on the way to a UN warehouse.
As noted in Bigworld July 1st and June 6th, it would appear the efficacy of government / military spending has drifted somewhat since D-Day in 1944.
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BITCARNAGE
100 Year Empire
Not quite the ambition of the Third Reich but with no IPO plans, nonetheless Binance plans for a Bitcoin century and 1000 new staff as the corporate compliance bill tops $200 million…
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Still on FTX, Former FTX Executive Ryan Salame Claims Government Backtracked On Plea Deal: Filing (CoinDesk) as?—?remarkably?—?he is accusing NY Federal prosecutors of investigating his partner for GOP campaign financing where Salame believed he had a plea agreement for the Feds overall to lay off. As you may recall from EI 2977: Salame was sentenced to 7.5 years of jail time a few months back.
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Alternatively, if you want to follow Bitcarnage?—?the daily update on happenings in the world of crypto and digital assets, then you can find Bitcarnage as a standalone on Substack.
OF INTEREST
As always, a review of interesting reading to provoke thoughts and consideration… Not sure we agree with much of it….but it’s thought-provoking!
The riots brought out a worrying strand in British politics and discredited the government immediately with a poor response. A “white trash” blamestorm has resulted in massive numbers of long sentences which have only provoked discussion about The Persecution Of ‘The Plebs’ (The Spectator) and raised concerns about The Toxicity Of Two-Tier Justice (The Spectator). Plus this first shambles of the government’s making has left the prison system in even greater crisis (FT: How ‘Sentencing Inflation’ Fuelled England’s Prisons Crisis / Spectator: How Long Can Our Prison System Carry On Like This?) which has led to a collapse in confidence in a perceived political cum inefficient police when crime has no consequences: Why The Police Have Lost The Public’s Trust (The Spectator)
领英推荐
This Labour government probably survive a full term but anybody could win the 2029 elections right now as the Labour Party is factionalised and provoking an upcoming financial crisis after a disingenuous attempt to ‘find’ accounting errors when the parlous state of UK finances under the useless Sunak government (and his prior time as a spendthrift finance minister, was public knowledge).
To put it bluntly, UK institution Jeremy Clarkson Nails It On Riots: Starmer Is P***ing Off Millions By ‘Labelling Them Modern-Day Hitlers’ (Guido Fawkes) in his tabloid column Two-Hour Trip To See Richard Hammond Showed Me How Badly Britain’s Roads Are Falling Apart (The Sun).
The UK adding failed and de facto-fired Columbia uni pres Minouche Shafik to the Foreign Minister’s payroll is a worrying precedent amidst threats of a war on free speech.
Clarkson summarised the problem of the smug elite Labour Party noting “The fact is though that four million people voted for Reform. More than that voted for Brexit. And he’s p***ing them off by labelling them as modern-day Hitlers.
I therefore suggest that both he and his friends at the BBC calm down the rhetoric or we could be heading for some real trouble.”
This BTW was a massive volte-face from a measured JC column just weeks earlier when Starmer arrived in office: If You’re Worried About Sir Keir Starmer As PM, You Needn’t Be?—?I Know Why You Don’t Have To (The Sun). So while Ipsos reckon a Labour honeymoon was still going in late August I think the Labour Party is already immersed in a series of self-inflicted or self-accelerated problems.
QV An excellent column from UK political expert analyst Matt Goodwin: NO. Nigel Farage Didn’t Cause The RIOTS. The ELITE CLASS Did.
Elon Musk’s talk of civil war is misplaced BUT the undercurrent of disgust at the UK elite which is now governing again with scant regard to e.g. the Brexit vote, is a dire precedent for future UK cohesion.
The ugly problem is the UK gov is clueless, the UK blob is merely feathering its own nest and the UK police is a shambles. Read this article, it’s fascinating coming from a community charity volunteer: The Truth About Two-Tier Policing In Britain (The Spectator).
In office no sooner did the Labour Party cave into various union pay demands than their largest rise, to train drivers (16%) and the very next day the train drivers’ union announced more strikes… The simple fact is the workers got away with average train driver salaries of circa 100K USD and yet no changes in working practice. As with much of the UK, things need to change but the vested interests of the blob are winning, qv: It’s Time To Automate The Trains (CapX).
Meanwhile, taxes are going up…and up more in the autumn/fall budget. Already those seeking to give their children a head start have been punished with VAT?—?a 17.5% tax on all school fees. Where Blair was canny enough to be cool about people making money while disassembling society to meet his painfully right on views, the reality is the new Labour government is simply anti-commerce. QV a bye bye Brent (at least as far as the index being a UK sourced crude price is concerned).
Books worth reading:
FINANCE BOOK OF THE?WEEK
“Open: The Story of Human Progress” by Johan Norberg makes a compelling case for why an open world with an open economy is worth fighting for more than ever. Johan explores how across time and cultures, we have struggled with a constant tension between our yearning for cooperation and our profound need for belonging.
Johan Norberg was our IPO-VID 125: The Capitalist Manifesto guest.
Get the book here.
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Suggestions welcome if you would like to nominate a book for us to cover!
Our next Book of the week will be unveiled Saturday in the EI Weekend Edition.
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CAPITAL MARKET REVOLUTION
First published in 1999, “Capital Market Revolution!” offered a clear, concise roadmap for navigating the financial revolution fueled by technology. And 25 years later, as the world of fintech continues to evolve, the core principles laid out in the book remain surprisingly sharp
This new edition was produced to celebrate PLY ringing the NYSE Closing Bell July 5th, 2024. There are several new sections of PLY pith to add 10,000 more words of context and the original book which is remarkably prescient and elegantly dated all at once! It’s only $9.99 on Kindle, a fraction of the original price in 1999 to encourage revolutionaries with any budget!
Get the book here. *Paid link, as an Amazon Associate, Exchange Invest earns from qualifying purchases.
LAST WORD
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