UH: Global Space Law and Policy Newsletter, Vol. 3 (8), 5 September 2024
Kiran Mohan Vazhapully
Outer Space Law and Policy | International Law | Senior Legal Officer, Asian-African Legal Consultative Org. | McGill | Univ. Kerala l NUJS
China Launches First Satellites of Constellation to Rival Starlink, Signaling New Era of Space Competition
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In a significant move that underscores the intensifying space race, China has successfully launched the first batch of satellites for its own version of SpaceX's Starlink network. The state-owned Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST) placed 18 low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites into orbit on Tuesday, marking the initial step in China's ambitious "Thousand Sails Constellation" plan.
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Strategic Implications for Global Space Dominance
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China's foray into building a Starlink-like constellation has far-reaching strategic implications. The ability to provide global internet coverage via a vast network of LEO satellites is not only commercially valuable but also carries significant military advantages. With the successful deployment of these satellites, China is positioning itself to challenge the U.S. dominance in space-based communications and surveillance capabilities.
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The launch comes amidst growing concerns expressed by Chinese military experts about the threat posed by Starlink to China's interests. Starlink's crucial role in battlefield communications during the Ukraine war has highlighted its military potential. By developing its own constellation, China aims to reduce its vulnerability to U.S. space assets and gain a strategic edge in any future conflicts.
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Intensifying Space Arms Race and Resource Competition
The rapid expansion of satellite constellations by the U.S. and now China is fuelling a new space arms race. As both nations vie for control over the valuable LEO real estate, the risk of weaponisation and potential confrontations in space escalates. The high-density deployment of these constellations also raises concerns about the safety of other countries' space assets and the sustainable use of limited orbital resources.
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Moreover, China's Thousand Sails Constellation is likely to intensify global competition for the coveted LEO frequencies and orbital slots. This could hinder the growth of other nations' space programs and commercial space endeavours, exacerbating geopolitical tensions.
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Implications for Global Internet Connectivity and Data Security
While Starlink aims to provide global internet access, China's constellation is expected to prioritise domestic connectivity and data security. By reducing its reliance on foreign satellites for internet services, China seeks to assert greater control over its digital infrastructure and safeguard sensitive data from potential foreign interference.
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However, the proliferation of satellite constellations by major powers raises questions about equitable access to space-based internet services for developing nations. It remains to be seen how China's constellation will impact the global digital divide and whether it will promote or hinder international cooperation in space.
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EU's IRIS2 Satellite Program Faces Cost Overruns and Delays, Jeopardizing Europe's Space Ambitions
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The European Union's ambitious IRIS2 (Infrastructure for Resilience, Interconnectivity and Security by Satellite) program, aimed at creating a military-grade satellite system to rival Elon Musk's Starlink constellation, is facing significant challenges. The project, initially expected to cost around €6 billion, is now grappling with ballooning costs, mounting delays, and disputes between the European Commission and the industry giants tasked with building it.
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Skyrocketing Costs Threaten IRIS2 Viability
According to three officials briefed on the talks, the latest proposals for the IRIS2 program have seen costs surge to a staggering €11.4 billion, nearly double the initial estimate of €6 billion. This dramatic increase in costs has raised concerns about the project's viability and the EU's ability to compete with established players like SpaceX's Starlink.
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The cost overruns are attributed to various factors, including the complexity of developing a secure, military-grade satellite system, the need for advanced technologies, and the involvement of multiple stakeholders across the EU. As the project's scope and requirements continue to evolve, the financial burden on the EU and its member states grows, putting pressure on the program's budget and timeline.
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Delays and Disputes Hamper Progress
In addition to the financial challenges, the IRIS2 program is also facing significant delays and internal disputes. The European Commission and the industry titans, including Airbus and Thales Alenia Space, are reportedly at odds over various aspects of the project, leading to further setbacks[1].
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These delays and disputes threaten to push back the program's timeline, which initially aimed to have the satellite constellation operational by 2027[2]. As the project falls behind schedule, it risks losing ground to competitors like Starlink, which is already providing internet services to customers worldwide, including in Ukraine, where it has played a crucial role in maintaining communications during the ongoing conflict with Russia[3].
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Europe's Space Ambitions at Stake
The IRIS2 program is a critical component of the EU's broader space strategy, which seeks to establish Europe as a major player in the global space industry. By developing its own secure satellite constellation, the EU aims to reduce its reliance on foreign providers, particularly in the event of a national security crisis[3].
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However, the mounting challenges faced by the IRIS2 program threaten to undermine Europe's space ambitions. If the project fails to deliver on its promises or experiences further delays and cost overruns, it could damage the EU's credibility in the space sector and hinder its ability to compete with the likes of SpaceX and Amazon's planned Kuiper constellation.
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As the EU navigates these challenges, it must find ways to streamline the IRIS2 program, address the internal disputes, and ensure that the project remains on track to meet its objectives. This may require a reevaluation of the program's scope, a reassessment of its budget, and closer collaboration between the European Commission and the industry partners involved.
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The success of the IRIS2 program is crucial not only for Europe's space ambitions but also for its strategic autonomy and ability to protect its interests in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. As the project faces mounting obstacles, the EU must demonstrate its resolve and adaptability to ensure that IRIS2 becomes a reality and positions Europe as a formidable player in the global space race.
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Union Budget 2024 Propels India's Space Ambitions with ?13,042 Crore Allocation and ?1,000 Crore Venture Fund
The Union Budget 2024, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, has given a significant boost to India's space sector with a substantial allocation of ?13,042.75 crore to the Department of Space. This marks a notable increase from the previous year's budget of ?12,543.91 crore. The budget also introduced a groundbreaking ?1,000 crore venture capital fund to support the growth of the space economy and foster innovation in the sector.
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Ambitious Goals for the Space Economy
During her budget speech, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman emphasised the government's vision to expand the space economy by five times over the next decade. The establishment of the ?1,000 crore venture capital fund is a crucial step towards achieving this goal. The fund aims to provide financial support to startups and entrepreneurs in the space sector, enabling them to develop cutting-edge technologies and contribute to India's space ambitions.
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Positive Response from the Space Industry
The announcement of the venture capital fund has generated excitement and optimism within the Indian space industry. Awais Ahmed, Founder and CEO of Pixxel, a space technology startup, hailed the fund as a groundbreaking development that will provide crucial financial support to innovative startups and companies. He emphasised that such a significant investment underscores the government's commitment to fostering a robust and dynamic space ecosystem.
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Comprehensive Support for Space Startups
While the venture capital fund is a welcome initiative, industry experts have highlighted the need for comprehensive support to truly unlock the potential of the space sector. Anil Prakash, Director General of SIA-India, an industry association for the space sector, stressed the importance of tax incentives, regulatory clarity, and the government acting as an anchor customer. He also called for enabling space manufacturing through Production Linked Incentives (PLI) and streamlining procurement processes to ensure sustained demand and funding for the growing space economy.
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Boost for MSMEs and Startups
The Union Budget 2024 also introduced measures to support Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) and startups in the space sector. Chaitanya Dora Surapureddy, Chief Financial Officer and Co-founder of Dhruva Space highlighted the Credit Guarantee Scheme, which provides coverage of up to ?100 crores for MSMEs to secure term loans for specialised machinery and equipment. This scheme reduces financial barriers and facilitates the establishment of manufacturing facilities for market-ready products, fostering growth and competitiveness in the space industry.
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Canada Bolsters Space Defence Strategy Amid Growing Russian and Chinese Military Threats
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As global tensions rise and the space domain becomes increasingly contested, Canada is taking decisive steps to enhance its space defence capabilities in response to the growing military posturing by Russia and China. The Canadian Space Defence Strategy (3CSD), established nearly two years ago, aims to provide a coordinated effort to address space threats, mirroring the approach of the United States Space Force.
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Countering Russian and Chinese Space Threats
Canada's renewed focus on space defence comes as Russia and China rapidly develop and deploy advanced weapons systems specifically designed to threaten North American security. The recently released policy document "Our North, Strong and Free" highlights the urgent need for Canada to bolster its defences to keep pace with these evolving aerospace threats.
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The Canadian government recognises that the space domain is becoming a critical frontier for national security, with potential adversaries seeking to exploit vulnerabilities and gain strategic advantages. By investing in space defence capabilities, Canada aims to deter aggression, protect its space assets, and ensure the continued peaceful use of outer space.
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Investing in Space Capabilities and Partnerships
To support its space defence strategy, Canada is making significant investments in new capabilities and strengthening partnerships with allies. The government has allocated $5.72 billion in its defence policy update for additional space capabilities over the next five years as part of a broader $8.1 billion investment in national defence.
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Canada is also actively collaborating with the United States and other NATO allies to enhance space situational awareness, share intelligence, and develop joint capabilities. The reactivation of Canada's National Space Council underscores the government's commitment to providing strategic direction on national space activities, including space defence.
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?Addressing the Arctic Dimension
The Arctic region is becoming increasingly important in the context of space defence as climate change opens up new opportunities for commercial activity and military operations. Canada, with its vast Arctic territories, is particularly vulnerable to potential threats in this domain.
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To address this challenge, Canada is investing in new capabilities, such as conventionally powered submarines capable of operating under the Arctic ice, to enhance maritime security in the region. The government is also collaborating with the United States and Finland to build icebreakers and promote the purchase of polar icebreakers from allied shipyards.
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Committing to NATO Defence Spending Targets
Canada's renewed focus on space defence is part of a broader effort to meet NATO's commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence. As one of the lowest-spending NATO members, Canada has faced mounting pressure from allies, particularly the United States, to increase its defence spending.
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In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that his government expects to reach NATO's 2% of GDP spending target by 2032. This commitment, along with Canada's pledge of $367 million in new military aid to Ukraine, demonstrates the country's resolve to contribute to collective defence and deter aggression.
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Supreme Court Ruling Casts Doubt on FCC's Authority to Regulate Orbital Debris, Prompting Calls for Congressional Action
A recent U.S. Supreme Court decision has raised questions about the Federal Communications Commission's (FCC) authority to enforce orbital debris mitigation regulations, potentially jeopardizing efforts to address the growing problem of space debris. The ruling, which struck down the principle of "Chevron deference," has led to calls for Congress to clarify the FCC's role in regulating orbital debris and to designate a specific agency to oversee this critical issue.
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The FCC's Orbital Debris Mitigation Rules
In September 2022, the FCC adopted new rules requiring satellite operators to deorbit their satellites within five years of the end of their missions, a significant reduction from the previous 25-year requirement. These rules, set to take effect in September 2023, would apply to all satellites licensed by the FCC or seeking U.S. market access through the commission.
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The FCC has long argued that its authority to regulate orbital debris stems from the Communications Act of 1934, which directs the agency to encourage "the larger and more effective use of radio in the public interest." The commission maintains that orbital debris can negatively impact the effective use of radio, thus justifying its role in mitigating the problem.
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The Supreme Court's Ruling and Its Implications
However, the Supreme Court's decision in the case of Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo has called into question the FCC's authority to regulate orbital debris. The ruling overturned the principle of "Chevron deference," which had previously given agencies greater latitude to interpret ambiguities in the laws they enforce.
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In the absence of explicit federal law authorising the FCC or other agencies to establish and enforce debris mitigation rules, some experts believe that the FCC's reliance on the broad language of the Communications Act may no longer be sufficient. Jason Kim, chief of staff in the Office of Space Commerce, warned that the ruling could lead to legal challenges against the FCC's orbital debris regulations, potentially creating "a lot of chaos for our industry."
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Calls for Congressional Action
The uncertainty surrounding the FCC's authority has prompted calls for Congress to step in and clarify the agency's role in regulating orbital debris. Even before the Supreme Court's decision, the bipartisan leadership of the House Science Committee had expressed concerns about the FCC's lack of "clear authority from Congress" to implement such regulations.
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Experts argue that Congress must act swiftly to designate a specific federal agency responsible for regulating orbital debris mitigation, ideally in conjunction with ongoing debates about "mission authorisation" – the oversight of non-governmental space activities not currently regulated by the FCC, Federal Aviation Administration, or the Office of Space Commerce.
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Gabriel Swiney, director of the Office of Space Commerce's policy, advocacy, and international division, emphasised the importance of clear legal authority for regulators in the United States. "What's more important than who has it is that someone does," he said, stressing the need for the legal ability to regulate sustainability and respond to emerging challenges in the space domain.
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Chinese Scientists Propose Submarine-Based Laser Weapon to Counter Starlink-like Satellites, Raising Concerns over Space Security
?In a development that has raised concerns about the growing militarisation of space, scientists from China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) have proposed a strategy to attack and disable Starlink-like satellite constellations using submarine-based laser weapons. The study, published in the Chinese-language journal Command Control & Simulation, highlights the PLA's increasing focus on developing counter-space capabilities and the potential for a new arms race in outer space.
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Countering the Starlink Threat
The research paper, authored by Wang Dan, a professor at the Naval Submarine Academy, and her colleagues, argues that the rapid growth of satellite constellations like SpaceX's Starlink poses a potential security risk to China. Starlink, which aims to provide global internet coverage through a network of thousands of low Earth orbit satellites, has already demonstrated its military utility during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
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Recognising the strategic advantage that such satellite networks offer, the PLA scientists propose a novel approach to neutralize them: deploying submarines equipped with high-powered laser weapons to target and disable the satellites as they pass overhead. This strategy, they contend, would provide a more concealed and effective means of conducting anti-satellite operations compared to traditional ground-based missile systems.
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A Step-by-Step Attack Plan
The research paper outlines a detailed, step-by-step process for executing submarine-based laser attacks on satellite constellations. The plan involves deploying one or more laser-equipped submarines to the target area, where they would wait for the satellites to enter their attack range. Using pre-acquired satellite orbital data, the submarines would determine the optimal time to engage their laser weapons and disable the targeted satellites.
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By launching the attack from beneath the ocean's surface, the PLA scientists believe they can overcome the main challenge of anti-satellite missions: avoiding detection and retaliation after the strike. Submarines, with their ability to remain concealed and mobile, would provide a significant tactical advantage in this regard.
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Escalating Tensions in the Space Domain
The Chinese proposal to develop submarine-based laser weapons for anti-satellite operations underscores the growing competition and tensions in the space domain. As major powers like the United States, China, and Russia increasingly view space as a critical frontier for military operations and strategic dominance, the risk of an arms race and potential conflict in outer space has become a pressing concern for the international community.
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The study also highlights the dual-use nature of many space technologies, with civilian satellite constellations like Starlink potentially being seen as military threats by rival nations. This blurring of lines between civilian and military space assets further complicates efforts to promote the peaceful and sustainable use of outer space.
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The Need for International Cooperation and Dialogue
As the Chinese research paper demonstrates, the development of counter-space capabilities and the growing militarisation of space pose significant challenges to international security and stability. To mitigate these risks and prevent a destructive arms race in outer space, it is essential for the international community to engage in dialogue, confidence-building measures, and the establishment of norms and rules for responsible behaviour in space.
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Efforts such as the United Nations' Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) initiative and the recently adopted UN General Assembly resolution on reducing space threats through norms, rules, and principles of responsible behaviours provide important platforms for addressing these concerns. However, more urgent and concerted action is needed to keep pace with the rapid technological advancements and changing strategic landscape in the space domain.
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As the world becomes increasingly reliant on space-based assets for a wide range of civilian and military applications, ensuring the safety, security, and sustainability of outer space must be a top priority for all nations. Only through international cooperation, transparency, and a shared commitment to the peaceful use of space can we hope to prevent the kind of destabilising scenarios envisioned in the Chinese research paper and preserve outer space as a global commons for the benefit of all humanity.
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U.S. and Japan Reaffirm Commitment to Space Cooperation and Security at 9th Comprehensive Dialogue on Space
The United States and Japan held the Ninth Meeting of the U.S.-Japan Comprehensive Dialogue on Space in Washington, DC, on August 26-27, 2024. The dialogue, which involved key space-related agencies and ministries from both countries, underscored the strong bilateral partnership in space exploration, science, and security.
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Enhancing Space Security Cooperation
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Both sides shared views on the threats to space posed by certain countries and reaffirmed the applicability of Article V of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty to attacks in space. They committed to strengthening cooperation on space situational awareness (SSA) and fulfilling the April 2024 agreement to advance cooperation on a future low-earth orbit missile detection and tracking constellation. The U.S. and Japan also discussed efforts to promote responsible behaviours in space to enhance security and stability, including their shared commitment not to conduct destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests.
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The joint statement highlights the shared concern of the United States and Japan regarding threats to space security posed by certain countries. Both sides highlighted the importance of all states fully adhering to their obligations under the Outer Space Treaty. In particular, they reaffirmed the treaty's prohibition on placing nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in Earth orbit, on celestial bodies or stationed in space in any other way. The U.S. and Japan strongly affirmed that any placement of nuclear weapons in outer space in breach of the Outer Space Treaty would pose a severe threat to global security. This joint stance reflects the two allies' commitment to upholding the peaceful use of space and preventing an arms race in this domain.
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Advancing Civil Space Collaboration
The dialogue celebrated the ongoing robust cooperation in civil space, including the Artemis program for lunar exploration. Under a historic arrangement, Japan will provide a pressurised lunar rover while the U.S. will provide two Japanese astronaut flight opportunities to the lunar surface on future Artemis missions. The leaders set a goal for a Japanese national to be the first non-American to land on the Moon. The two sides also acknowledged the 10th anniversary of their joint Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and affirmed the importance of coordinating on Earth observation to study climate change.
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Promoting Commercial Space Partnerships
Recognising the growing role of the private sector, the U.S. and Japan discussed regulatory frameworks and opportunities to increase collaboration between their space industries. They expressed intent to pursue a space industry network of American and Japanese companies to support the goals of the alliance in space. Both sides also noted progress on negotiating a space technology safeguards agreement to enable U.S. commercial space launches from Japan and open up new opportunities in advanced space technologies.
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Brazil Enacts Landmark Space Activities Act to Boost National Space Industry and Regulatory Framework
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On July 31, 2024, Brazil took a significant step forward in its space ambitions by enacting the Space Activities Act, a comprehensive piece of legislation aimed at regulating and promoting the country's space activities. The new law is set to provide a solid legal framework for Brazil's space industry, fostering economic growth, technological advancement, and international cooperation in the space domain.
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Strengthening the National Space Regulatory Framework
Brazil's Space Activities Act fills a crucial gap in the country's space legislation, which previously lacked a general set of provisions to guide space activities. The Act establishes basic guidelines and regulations for space operations, covering aspects such as licensing, liability, insurance, and environmental protection. By providing legal certainty and clarity, the new law is expected to attract investments and encourage the participation of private actors in Brazil's space sector.
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Promoting Economic Growth and Technological Advancement
The enactment of the Space Activities Act is a key component of Brazil's strategy to transform its space program and embrace the opportunities presented by the New Space era. The law aims to create a favourable environment for the development of space technologies, services, and applications, driving economic growth and job creation. It also seeks to stimulate research and innovation in areas such as satellite manufacturing, launch services, and space resource utilization.
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Enabling International Cooperation and Lunar Exploration
The Space Activities Act positions Brazil as a key player in the global space arena and facilitates its participation in international collaborations. In June 2021, Brazil signed the Artemis Accords, signaling its commitment to the joint exploration of the Moon and Mars as part of NASA's Artemis program. The new law provides the necessary legal framework for Brazil to engage in these groundbreaking endeavours and contribute to the sustainable development of space activities.
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Capacity Building and STEM Education
To support the implementation of the Space Activities Act and nurture a skilled workforce for the space industry, Brazil is investing in capacity building and education initiatives. The Brazilian Space Agency (AEB) has launched a program to train teachers from public schools in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) subjects, with a focus on space-related topics. This initiative aims to inspire the next generation of space professionals and ensure the long-term success of Brazil's space program.
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UNIDIR Launches Space Security Legal Primer Series with Focus on Use of Force in Outer Space
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The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) has released the first in a new series of Space Security Legal Primers aimed at exploring key legal issues related to space security in an accessible way for policymakers and general audiences. This inaugural primer, titled "Outer Space & Use of Force", examines how the prohibition on the threat or use of force under international law, enshrined in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, applies to activities in outer space.
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The primer emphasises that the prohibition on the use of force, a cornerstone of the UN Charter and customary international law, fully applies to the space domain via Article III of the Outer Space Treaty. This means states must refrain from the threat or use of force in their space activities just as they must in terrestrial domains. The primer notes that this prohibition does not depend on the type of weapon used and can encompass acts causing direct or indirect effects via kinetic or non-kinetic means.
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Areas Needing Clarification in Outer Space Context?
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However, the primer highlights several areas where the precise meaning and scope of the use of force prohibition lacks clarity in the outer space context:
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·???????? Whether Article VI of the Outer Space Treaty, which makes states responsible for national space activities, including by non-governmental entities, could implicate states in violations of the use of force prohibition with respect to the activities of private actors like companies
·???????? To what extent the prohibition encompasses acts with indirect, temporary, reversible, or potential but unrealized harmful effects
·???????? Whether there is a minimum severity threshold for an act to qualify as a use of force
·???????? What type of intent, such as deliberate, hostile, coercive or reckless intent, is required
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Strengthening the Use of Force Prohibition in Outer Space
The primer calls on states to promote compliance with the use of force prohibition in outer space and consider how to strengthen its application, including by building common understandings to address the uncertainties identified. It suggests that states can increase clarity through both legally binding and non-binding measures in a complementary manner, as well as through unilateral statements. The primer contends that the use of force prohibition can serve as a useful basis for advancing the prevention of an arms race in outer space since it helps clarify the regulation of space capabilities and behaviours and already binds all states.
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Deloitte Report Highlights Challenges in US Space Regulatory Landscape, Proposes Strategies for Agile Regulation
A recent report by Deloitte, a leading professional services firm, sheds light on the current challenges faced by the US space industry due to friction in the licensing process and unclear procedures surrounding emerging space technologies. The report, titled "Rockets and regulation: Injecting agility into US space industry oversight," emphasises the need for a more agile regulatory system to keep pace with the rapid advancements in the space sector.
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The Deloitte report identifies two major pain points in the US space regulatory landscape: the licensing process and technology risk assessments. The current licensing process often requires companies to navigate a complex web of regulations and agencies, leading to uncertainties in timelines and costs. Additionally, the lack of clarity in assessing the risks associated with novel space technologies can further complicate the regulatory process, impacting both businesses and regulators.
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The Promise and Limitations of a Mission Authorization Approach
To address these challenges, the report discusses the potential benefits of a "mission authorisation" regulatory approach, where a single agency is granted approval authority and takes responsibility for interagency coordination. While this approach could streamline the regulatory process and reduce complexity, it also shifts the burden from the industry to the government. Consequently, applicants may lose some control over the process, and regulators may still face challenges in interagency coordination and risk assessment.
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Strategies for Enhancing Agile Regulation
Recognising the limitations of a mission authorisation approach alone, the Deloitte report recommends three key strategies to foster a more agile regulatory system:
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1. Establishing multistakeholder "mission owner" groups: These groups would bring together the private sector, regulators, and academics to coordinate and integrate various actors and strategies, serving as a central hub for information and leading regulatory efforts.
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2. Creating activity- or mission-based risk assessment dialogue groups: These multistakeholder groups would focus on understanding emerging space activity risks and standardising approaches to risk assessment, helping companies and regulators manage business and safety concerns more equitably.
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3. Developing a regulatory playbook: A collaborative effort between the industry and government, this playbook would guide companies through the complexities of space regulations, providing a comprehensive overview of the regulatory landscape, common issues, and helpful resources.
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China Seeks Global South Partnerships for Lunar Base, Raising Strategic Concerns
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China is actively seeking to engage 50 countries, particularly from the Global South, in its ambitious International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) program. The ILRS, a joint venture with Russia first announced in 2021, aims to establish a permanent lunar base at the Moon's south pole by 2045. China's diplomatic push to attract partners, especially from developing nations, has significant geopolitical implications and underscores the country's growing space capabilities and influence.
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Targeting the Global South
Wu Weiren, the chief designer of China's lunar exploration program, recently stated that China welcomes cooperation from all countries, with a specific emphasis on the Global South, emerging BRICS countries, and Western nations. This call for collaboration aligns with China's broader diplomatic strategy of engaging with developing countries through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.
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So far, China has signed agreements with more than ten countries and nearly 30 international research institutions for the ILRS project. Partners include Venezuela, Belarus, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, South Africa, Egypt, Nicaragua, Thailand, Serbia, and Kazakhstan. China's focus on the Global South is evident, with many of these countries being part of the developing world.
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?Strategic Implications
China's efforts to involve the Global South in its lunar ambitions have significant strategic implications. By partnering with developing nations, China is not only showcasing its technological prowess but also expanding its sphere of influence and soft power. The ILRS project provides an opportunity for China to strengthen diplomatic ties, foster economic cooperation, and potentially gain access to resources and markets in these countries.
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Moreover, China's lunar exploration program, including the recent success of the Chang'e-6 mission, which returned samples from the Moon's far side, demonstrates the country's growing capabilities in space. As China establishes itself as a major space power, it seeks to shape the rules and norms governing space activities. Engaging the Global South in the ILRS project could help China gain support for its vision of space governance and challenge the dominance of Western powers like the United States.
Geopolitical Concerns
China's increasing influence in space and its partnerships with the Global South have raised concerns among some Western nations, particularly the United States. The U.S. has long-standing restrictions on space cooperation with China, such as the Wolf Amendment, which limits NASA's ability to engage with Chinese entities.
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The U.S. and its allies view China's space ambitions as part of a broader strategy to assert its global influence and challenge the existing international order. The ILRS project, with its focus on resource development and scientific exploration, could potentially give China a strategic advantage in the long run.
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ESA's Space Environment Report 2023 Highlights Increasing Space Debris and Sustainability Challenges
The European Space Agency (ESA) has released its annual Space Environment Report for 2023, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of space debris and the challenges it poses to the sustainability of space activities. The report, compiled by ESA's Space Debris Office, analyses the evolution of the space environment, adherence to space debris mitigation guidelines, and the potential long-term impacts of space debris on future space missions.
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The report reveals that the number of objects, their combined mass, and their combined area in Earth's orbit have been steadily increasing since the beginning of the space age. This growth has led to the occurrence of unintentional collisions between operational payloads and space debris. Improvements in space surveillance capabilities have enabled the tracking and cataloguing of smaller debris objects, highlighting the significant amount of known space debris. However, the origins of many of these objects remain unknown.
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Changing Landscape of Space Activities
The space environment has undergone notable changes since 2015, particularly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The miniaturization of space systems and the deployment of large constellations have driven these changes, with a shift towards commercial operators. In 2022, the launch traffic in all mass and type classes surpassed historical rates not seen since the 1980s. These factors have significant implications for the adequacy of current space debris mitigation guidelines and the development of sustainable space operations.
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Adherence to Space Debris Mitigation Measures
The report assesses the global adherence to space debris mitigation measures, which aim to limit the generation of new space debris. While adoption and compliance with these practices are slowly increasing, the successful implementation remains at a level insufficient to ensure a sustainable space environment in the long run. The report notes that some of the observed improvements in mitigation efforts are linked to the deployment and retirement of large constellations rather than a universal shift in practices.
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Long-Term Consequences and Future Outlook
ESA's analysis suggests that the current trends in space activities, combined with continued fragmentations and limited post-mission disposal success rates, could lead to a cascade of collision events over the following centuries. Even in the absence of further launches, collisions among existing space debris objects are expected to cause a further increase in the debris population. The report emphasises the need for stricter space debris mitigation practices to be implemented globally and highlights the potential necessity of active debris removal measures in the future.
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The ESA Space Environment Report 2023 serves as a vital resource for policymakers, space agencies, and operators to understand the current state of the space debris problem and the urgent need for collaborative efforts to ensure the long-term sustainability of space activities. As the space environment continues to evolve rapidly, regular monitoring, assessment, and proactive measures will be essential to preserve this critical domain for future generations.
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Head of Chambers & Precedent Partner at Law Chambers of Lasantha Hettiarachchi
6 个月Thank you very much - very informative.
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6 个月Really interesting to learn about the canadian situation !
Government Relations | Space Policy | Strategy and Partnership Development
6 个月Thanks Kiran, an excellent compilation as ever, and a good move to deplatform. LinkedIn is not the best option for a regular newsletter (although publishing opinion and company articles is still valuable for the commments). One commmet—I don’t think EU’s IRIS2 project is a “competitor” to Starlink (despite now being a space media trope). It won’t try to compete on the consumer market. Its end purpose is primarily secure govsatcom and in the process has an intermediate but equally important goal of supporting EU space industry.