UAE and Saudi eye expat population growth

Following a drop in expat population in 2020 that reached a 4% average in GCC countries, and as much as 12% in Oman amid job losses brought by the pandemic’s economic downturn, low oil prices and jobs nationalization schemes, some countries in the region have been putting in the effort to make it easier for expats to move in and stay, with the return of higher oil prices. These efforts materialize in new visa schemes , civil law changes, and plans to diversify the economy and create jobs in different sectors.?

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The top sources of remittance by expat workers to their home countries in Asia are the UAE and Saudi Arabia, both home to more than 22 million expat (9 million out of UAE’s 10 million population and 13.5 million out of Saudi’s 34 million in 2021). These populations are on a projection to increase over the coming years, and with such increase comes the need to expand infrastructure, jobs and resources.?

Dubai is expected to almost double its current population to reach 5.8 million people in 2040 , which means it will have up to 7.8 million people during day time when counting professionals who work in Dubai and commute from other emirates. In the five months between April and October this year, 23,000 residents joined Dubai’s population.?

By the end of this year, employment levels in Riyadh would increase by 5% and are expected to grow another 3% in 2023, according to Oxford Economics data. Saudi Arabia has attracted 13.5 million expat workers, according to the World Migration Report 2022 , released by the United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM). Saudi Arabia is consequently the third largest source of remittance in the world, following the US and the UAE, the report shows based on World Bank data. Like the UAE, Saudi also has population goals; eyeing an equal rate of 25 million citizens and 25 million expats by 2030.

The impact of this population increase is starting to show in multiple sectors, namely in real estate. Market recovery represented in demand on residential units, office spaces rentals and prices have gone up. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are facing a new office space shortage , with occupancy levels at up to 95%, according to a report by Knight Frank. Earlier this month, real estate company JLL expected Dubai’s office rents to double over the next year . In Saudi Arabia, Riyadh is witnessing a demand on Grade A office space that is 700% higher than last year , in a wave of incoming businesses to the kingdom.?

To accommodate this growth and with the surge in oil prices, the kingdom is using the revenue to expand its infrastructure , including new residential units, hotel rooms, and retail and office spaces, according to property consultancy Knight Frank. It also specified a need for additional 20,000 hospital beds by 2030 to cater to the growing population needs.

With population increase also comes the need for more teachers; Dubai school operators are set to increase their hiring as the student population increases along with new incoming residents, The National reports. The emirate’s students number has increased to more than 326,000 up from 303,000 in April.

Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are dependent on expat workforces living in the region. Parallel to nationalization schemes for jobs in specific sectors, both populations are growing.

How do you see this growth affecting daily life for expats in the Gulf in terms of prices and availability of services? Share your thoughts in the comments below.?

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