The Tyranny of Predictions

Happy New Year! 2021 is almost behind us. As I started to reflect on the year, I glanced at a Forrester article entitled "Predictions 2021" (note that a registration is required to download the PDF). Just for grins, I thought I'd take a quick pulse of how accurate they were. Predictions nowadays are tough so let's see what they got right and not-so-right (the Accuracy Ratings you'll see are mine and are not based on anything other than my own interpretation. 1 to 5 asterisks, 5 being the most accurate):

• Prediction: Consumers will become more willing to try out new forms of consumption, even if the experiences are entirely simulated. Accuracy Rating: *** Zuckerberg's announcement of Meta and a pivot for his company to begin building the metaverse is a signal that a simulated world is indeed an option ahead for us, but in the short-term, after two long years in various states of isolation and lockdown, I believe people will clamor to gather physically more than virtually. Simulated experiences will be valuable and can promote togetherness, but once we feel safe gathering again, we will see a rush of get togethers. In fact, I predict the coming roaring twenties will bring a baby boom of epic proportions and potentially usher in a decade of deeper connections in our personal and professional lives. I'm not bullish on massive adoption of simulated worlds to replace our physical one just yet.
• Prediction: Companies will integrate marketing and customer experience and focus more on everything that happens after acquisition. Accuracy rating: ** We've experienced a complete, near-debilitating breakdown of the global supply chain since 2020, which has resulted in an entirely new perspective on globalization. I firmly believe every CMO and marketing professional strongly believes in expanding CX across the value chain, yes. However, entering year three of the pandemic means that customer expectations have shifted. Those expectations now include more personalized experiences combining products with services, increased focus on sustainability, localized sourcing, artisanal production, and truth and transparency. The prediction mentions loyalty and retention and I would argue, yes, that's always a goal regardless of the world's situation, but in these times a heightened focus on ensuring that customers are heard, respected, and updated is the most crucial factor in driving loyalty and retention.
• Prediction: Firms will accelerate their spending on cloud, security and risk, networks, and mobility. Accuracy rating: ***** It's a given that the transition to cloud services represents the largest migration in the technology industry since its inception. However, there are bumps along the information highway. We are early in the digital age, so hiccups are a given. But we are hammered with a wildly inconsistent infrastructure across the globe with internet speed and access a major challenge, dated systems and interoperability of utmost concern, and data security a rising risk for every company (and individual). The traditional corporate IT organization is bending under pressure and we're seeing more calls for the dissolution of the central organization responsible for all technology services across the company. Integrating tech into the business functions can accelerate consumer-grade experiences, disperse troubleshooting, and bring more modernization to the workforce. CIOs and CEOs are faced with the uncomfortable truth that simplification and consolidation are critical focus areas for corporate technology. Ignore this at their own peril because centralized technology services are often too slow and distracted to meet the needs of both customers and employees.
• Prediction: COVID-19 changes hiring practices. Accuracy rating: **** Potentially the largest positive out of the pandemic is a refreshed HR organization focused on employee well-being, more equitable hiring, effective remote working processes, and increased training opportunities. I would argue that the pandemic unleashed extensive pressure primarily on two corporate organizations: IT and HR. I would also argue that HR took on the most pressure. I can't think of one CEO in February 2020 that envisioned their workforce being completely distributed in less than a month. Yet, that's exactly what happened. HR pivoted on a dime to construct new policies and procedures to ensure business continuity, employee safety, and customer satisfaction. I've been in HR for 25 years and have never seen a rally as quick and effective as this. Throughout the pandemic, a renewed focus on employee needs became the catalyst for almost every people-centered function to devise new and revised policies across the entire employee life cycle. Even the acronym "EX" became a thing as HR took the lead to define what the post-pandemic employee experience will look like.
• Prediction: Workplace automation and AI are here to stay. Accuracy rating: *** Sure, it's easy to predict technology will become permanent mainstays of corporate life. That's been happening since Henry Ford brought us the assembly line. Yes, I agree that automation and AI are invariably linked together for the future of all companies. However, both are still fuzzy and ill-defined. I rated this prediction with three asterisks because we are in the formative stages of determining what we want from automation and AI. Collectively we will make decisions about how best to integrate technology to drive both the customer and employee experience. We've made these transitions in the past and I do believe this transition is occurring quicker than previous ones , has more potential to leave millions behind, and at the same time, may wreak havoc across the supply chain. What the pandemic brought is a renewed focus on the humanity of work and leisure life and has afforded us the opportunity to renew our conversation about how we want to integrate technology into our lives and work. Science fiction doesn't have to become our reality -- that's why the word "fiction" comes right after the word science. We make choices with the models we create and we're in the early stages of a conversation about what we want from work and what work means to us, so this prediction is a tough one. I lean more toward automation and AI being leveraged to highlight fundamental changes in how we work to amplify human-centered capability: creativity, innovation, mindfulness, and connection. Imagine how motivating, interesting, and enlightening work can be when the rote activities are handled by the machines, leaving us to magnify our humanity and design products and services that bring more happiness and joy!

Overall, Forrester did a predictably good job on their predictions, especially given how challenging it is right now to predict anything. Please share your thoughts about 2021 and if you so dare, share a prediction or two for 2022!