Typical Ides of March Low

First half of March trading has been mostly in line with its seasonal pattern over the last 21 years. There has been plenty of chop with S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 drifting higher while DJIA and Russell 2000 have moved lower. S&P 500 is up 1.06% thus far this month. NASDAQ is hanging onto an 0.23% gain, but DJIA and Russell 2000 are both in the red, down 0.23% and 1.15% respectively.

Today is the Ides of March and over the last 21-year period, the market has tended hit its March low today on the Ides and then to rally afterwards. Having avoided typical seasonal weakness in February and in early March, this upcoming period of strength could already be factored into the market, and we could experience more chop and churn.

Historically, the week after quarterly options expiration in March has been prone to weakness. Plus, the Fed is scheduled to meet next week. Even though it is widely expected that they will not be changing the Fed Fund’s Rate, everyone will still be looking for clues as to when they may begin cutting rates.

This AI-fueled bull market has enjoyed solid gains since last October and will likely continue to push higher in the near-term, but momentum does appear to be waning with the pace of gains slowing. With April and the end of DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months” quickly approaching we are going to begin shifting to a more cautious stance. We maintain our bullish stance for 2024, but that does not preclude the possibility of some weakness during spring and summer.