Two Trading Ideas for Q1 2023
Thrive Portfolios, Inc.
Thrive Portfolios is a purpose-driven Investment Advisory firm that helps our people and our planet.
Brad Gilbert????|????January 31, 2023
Recently we have provided trade ideas with a 30 day outlook in order to hold ourselves accountable every month. We didn't see anything alluring over the next 30 days. So, we looked further out in time to mid March 2023. We have found the following trades for our subscribers:
GOOG Alphabet?is a Buy until Mar 17 2023 using these Entry and Exit Levels:
Entry: $98
Exit: $105
Stop Loss: $93
Risk / Reward: $7 profit vs. $5 loss
GOOG is currently trading around $98. Delta is your Options “Greek” that indicates the most probabilistic outcomes by a certain date. An active trader can expect to buy or sell stock within the classic bell curve of one standard deviation using a 16 Delta put and a 16 Delta call.
On Mar 17 2023, options contracts in GOOG are trading 16 Delta values $86 puts and $112 calls. An even tighter range would be indicated by a higher value. GOOG is trading 30 Delta options in a range from $93 puts (31 Delta) to $105 calls (32 Delta).
There is an upside skew to option contracts for GOOG, indicating a Bullish bias.
Using the more conservative 30 Delta options, we are searching for a trade in GOOG by using monthly options expiring March 17 2023.
ADBE Adobe?is a Buy until Mar 17 2023 using these Entry and Exit Levels:
Entry: $363
Exit: $390
Stop Loss: $345
Risk / Reward: $27 profit vs. $18 loss
ADBE is currently trading at $163. Delta is your Options “Greek” that indicates the most probabilistic outcomes by a certain date. An active trader can expect to buy or sell stock within the classic bell curve of one standard deviation using a 16 Delta put and a 16 Delta call.
On Mar 17 2023, options contracts in ADBE are trading 16 Delta values $320 puts and $415 calls. An even tighter range would be indicated by a higher value. ADBE is trading 30 Delta options in a range from $345 puts to $390 calls.
There is an upside skew to option contracts for ADBE, indicating a Bullish bias.
Using the more conservative 30 Delta options, we can design a trade in ADBE that offers more reward than risk.
Happy trading,
Brad Gilbert, Founder
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We perform investment consultations to review the companies that you already own. Use this link to schedule your complimentary investment consultation:
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Copyright ? 2023 Thrive Portfolios
Accountability Results:
The Thrive Investment Analysis newsletter is strongly rooted in accountability as a key principle. We have a couple massive winners below and a couple small losses. Not every trade can be a winner, and that is why we seek more reward than risk on a trade. We are specialists in using probabilities to define those levels.
This is also a lesson in why we trade stocks that we want to own. If a trade goes south, we'd like to provide ourselves the choice of using the trade to build a long-term position in the company’s stock.
Global Supply Chain Disruptions
We posted an article in October 2020 about how to find profit during the global supply chain disruptions. This was an extremely difficult time period for most markets, yet we found two massive winners.
We look back at this article now that our trade time period has elapsed:
Here is the Link to original article on LinkedIn
Our first trade was in: STLD
Entry: $63.50
Exit: $100
Stop Loss: $45
Risk / Reward: $36.5 profit vs. $18.5 loss
36% in 6 months, twice ... and it keeps going!
Trade Conclusion: A massive 36% winner in just 6 months, an investor could have performed the trade twice in the 15 month time period. This trade touched our price points perfectly.
Let's say the original trade was $1,000. 6 months later you've realized gains of $1,360. If an investor had seen the opportunity to perform this trade again, investing the full $1,360, that investor is walking away from the second trade with $1,850.
Our second trade was in: NUE
Entry: $102
Exit: $173
Stop Loss: $73
Risk / Reward: $71 profit vs. $29 loss
41% in 6 months ... and its repeatable!
Trade Conclusion: A massive 41% winner in just 6 months, an investor could have performed the trade twice in the 15 month time period. This trade touched our price points perfectly.
Let's say the original trade was $1,000. 6 months later you've realized gains of $1,410. If an investor had seen the opportunity to perform this trade again, investing the full $1,410, that investor is walking away from the second trade with $1,988.?
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December 2022 Trades:
Trade Conclusion: A brief sell-off in December had this trade hitting its Stop Loss at $91. A trader risked $4 for every $7 in potential gains. If an investor continued to hold, AMZN recovered in January and could be a consideration for a long term holding.?
Let's say the original trade was $1,000. If a trader hits their stop loss, 1 month later you've walked away with $958. If an investor had seen the opportunity to build a long-term position, the position is currently worth $1,057.?
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Trade Conclusion: A brief sell-off in December had this trade hitting its Stop Loss at $121. A trader risked $4 for every $10 in potential gains. If an investor continued to hold, QCOM recovered in January and could be a consideration for a long term holding.?
Let's say the original trade was $1,000. If a trader hits their stop loss, 1 month later you've walked away with $968. If an investor had seen the opportunity to build a long-term position, the position is currently worth $1,052.?
Happy trading,
Brad Gilbert, Founder
?
Be sure to Subscribe on LinkedIn!
We perform investment consultations to review the companies that you already own. Use this link to schedule your complimentary investment consultation:
?
Copyright ? 2023 Thrive Portfolios