Two and three-wheel e-bikes offer major markets for lead batteries

In late October, Shanghai Metal Markets (SMM) organised a Battery Recycling and Recycling Industry conference.? Papers presented covered a number of issues relating to both lead and lithium battery use and recycling.? There is little doubt that both the lead and lithium battery recycling industries face significant challenges.?

In the case of lead, specifically, there is now chronic over-capacity in the industry.? Existing operations that have been in the business for many years have expanded capacity as well as upgrading their facilities to meet tightening environmental regulations.? At the same time, greenfield recycling operations have sprung up all over the country located in industrial zones branded as “Environmental Technology Centres.”? Currently, Chinese lead battery recycling facilities could process all lead battery scrap arising globally and still, probably, have capacity to spare.? Fortunately for battery recyclers elsewhere, China continues to enforce a ban on the import of scrapped batteries.

One paper of particular interest to us was presented by the Chief Engineer of Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Company.? This reflected on the state of the e-bike industry in China and the choice of batteries fitted to e-bikes based on the classification of e-bikes and standards introduced in 2019.??? ?

This provided current estimates for the share of lead and lithium batteries fitted to new e-bikes, e-mopeds/e-motorcycles sold in China in 2023, and the typical power capacity of lead battery packs fitted. We assume that e-bikes are defined as those models meeting the standard introduced in 2019 which set various parameters relating to maximum speed, weight, power, etc.? Figures provided show that 44 million e-bikes were sold, with 90% fitted with lead batteries.? A further 10.6 million e-mopeds and e-motorbikes were sold, with 95% using lead batteries.? Based on these figures, and the number and size of batteries typically fitted as detailed in the paper, we can estimate lead demand of around 750kt for the batteries required by all categories of e-bikes sold in 2023.? This does not include any allowance for replacement batteries for the existing e-bike fleet on the roads of China which some estimates put at more than 300 million.

In addition to two-wheel e-bikes, there is also a large market for three-wheel e-bikes in China.? These come in various styles and are put to a range of uses.? The smallest are utilised as mobility aids for older people, while larger e-trikes can be used as local taxis or as last mile delivery vehicles.? It is estimated that 8 million e-trikes were sold in 2023 with 95% using lead batteries.? Based on the details provided in the Xinri paper, this implies a further 400kt of lead required for the batteries.? Again, this does not include replacement batteries.

CHR Metals has modelled lead use in China’s e-bike/e-trike markets for over twenty years.? While our data, drawn from a wide variety of sources, including our own street-side research, does not precisely match the tonnage of lead consumed implied by the Xinri presentation, the difference is within acceptable margins of error given a lack of formal and consistent data. ?CHR Metals estimates that 870kt of lead was required for new e-bike/e-trike batteries in 2023.? Including replacement batteries needed for e-bikes/e-trikes, the use of lead in 2023 rises to more than 2.5 million tonnes in this market sector.? This represents almost 40% of CHR Metals’ estimate of total lead demand in China and a little over 17% of global lead demand. ?

This huge market for lead, and the potential it offers for growth in demand if e-bikes/e-trikes powered by lead batteries can gain more than a foothold in other parts of Asia, in Africa and in South America, risks being airbrushed from current discourse by international agencies such as the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and by some purporting to provide analysis of, and prospects for, the global battery industry.? In the case of UNEP, in a report published in January this year, Electric Two and Three Wheelers, Global Emerging Market Overview, discussion of any vehicles powered by lead batteries was largely excluded.? Indeed, UNEP chooses to define electric two and three-wheelers as exclusively powered by lithium batteries.? In the section covering definitions in the report it states, “This means that the following vehicles are excluded from the database and not the focus of this report:…

• All lead-acid battery based electric vehicles. These are present in all three regions, but there is a general transition away from these battery chemistries due to their inefficiency and environmental impacts.“ ???

With this bald assertion, all lead battery powered e-bikes/e-trikes are summarily dismissed with government officials participating in UNEP’s programmes left in no doubt that the only way forward for promoting the adoption of e-bikes/e-trikes is if lithium batteries are specified.? This is despite the acknowledgement that the slow uptake of e-bikes/e-trikes in several countries has been because of the high up-front cost of models powered by lithium batteries.? Nor is the current lack of an established recycling infrastructure for lithium batteries seen as a major cause for concern.? It is notable also that the extensive experience of China in developing and using lead battery powered e-bikes/e-trikes is not considered.

Across Asia, especially, but also in other regions, governments and citizens have concerns about urban air and noise pollution which is often exacerbated by the use of motor scooters, motorcycles and motor rickshaws.? E-bikes and e-trikes offer a solution to these problems and can also contribute to lowering carbon emissions.? The lead battery industry needs to explore new markets to offset the decline in future SLI battery demand with the evitable growth in sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.? The experience of China shows that electric two and three-wheelers provide a very significant market for lead batteries which could be replicated in many other countries.? However, without conscious engagement in countering the promotion of e-bikes/e-trikes powered exclusively by lithium batteries by international organisations and NGOs, lead producers and lead battery manufacturers risk losing a significant future market for their products.? Perhaps the focus of international organisations and NGOs should rather be on ensuring that proven, environmentally sound lead battery recycling is enshrined in regulations and effectively enforced, rather than promoting lithium batteries exclusively for which many question marks remain over how these are disposed of at the end of their lives.? Moreover, governments need persuading not to exclude e-bikes/e-trikes powered by lead batteries from any subsidies aimed at encouraging a switch to e-mobility.