Two months of the new Labour Government – is the honeymoon period over?

After a landslide victory not seen since the days of Tony Blair, Sir Keir Starmer’s new Government got off to a roaring start. A speedily appointed, well-prepared Cabinet, a popular new house-building policy announced by the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, and long-lost constructive dialogue with trade unions reignited meant that the Government was speedily out the gates with implementing its vision for the country. However, what started on solid footing, with Sir Keir’s approval rating soaring to a net positive of 19% in his first few days as Prime Minister, has come to a crashing halt, sinking back into the negative at -7%.

But how did we get here? Is this the natural course for a new leader in a divided democracy in 2024, or the early warning signs of a difficult five years ahead?

The first signs of trouble for the new Government came after the tragic attack in Southport and the consequent rioting in streets across the UK, stoked by far-right rhetoric and disinformation. With one tragedy turning into nationwide disorder, the Prime Minister had multiple crises to contend at once.

The Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, attempted to take control of the narrative around the tragedy, reciting Labour’s tough-on-crime position following the Southport attack and the subsequent riots, but this did little to combat the reality of what millions across the country were seeing with their own eyes, on the news, and on social media.

The swift charging and imprisonment of rioters was commended, but also clashed with Labour’s narrative of prisons being full, leading many to ask what the Prime Minister truly intended and how this practice would work in real-time. Despite the uncovering of the dire state of the country’s prisons, Labour had a plan. After the riots, those plans were immediately redundant. What had been a long-term fix had become another sticking plaster policy. This momentary, but profound, uncertainty and instability overtook the nation and could not be successfully combatted with political rhetoric.

Sir Keir’s drop in approval ratings may also simply be a side effect of the news cycle moving on from an intense and dominant election period. Six weeks of wall-to-wall, non-stop election coverage, followed by the most significant change in Government in 14 years was overpowering, with other news falling to the wayside. The Government’s energetic start, in addition to widespread relief at the end of many years of Conservative volatility, won many over, but with tangible everyday problems becoming prominent once again, the Government’s successes are not being as broadcast or celebrated as they would have been a month ago.

Before Parliament returned from the summer recess, the Prime Minister set out his sombre vision for the next year ahead. He highlighted that the next few years ahead will be difficult, warning that things will get worse before they get better. This is a profound rhetorical change from the previous Conservative governments, who promised big but delivered little. Whether or not the public will appreciate this frankness, or grow impatient with the state of the country, is yet to be seen.

It’s worth noting that it’s not all been ‘doom and gloom’ for the new Government. They have successfully pioneered new programmes, including cracking down on school absenteeism, repairing the state’s relationship with business, and presenting a clear, comprehensive economic vision.

With a well-received start and a major crisis defining the first two months of Sir Keir’s premiership, we have already seen high highs and low lows for the Government – but with 4 years and 10 months to go, it’s safe to say that the Starmer Premiership still has all to play for.?