Two Crucial Weeks

It is not just the European powers that are the main beneficiaries of the election of Mr Joe Biden as president of the United States. China, Russia, and even Iran also are among the biggest winners of the advent of this administration, each for their different reasons. The next two weeks could witness developments that will have fateful implications for international relations and their regional ramifications, with many capitals reaching a climax in celebrating the defeat of former President Donald Trump, from Berlin where a farewell for Angela Merkel is coinciding with the restoration of German leadership, to Tehran where the regime is set to revel in its tactical and strategic victories, dominating every conversation and decision in this period. The Iranian regime feels favored by fortune with Biden’s victory, having invested itself in the defeat of Donald Trump while staking its bets on its strategic patience. Yet it is Europe which has acted as the Iranian regime’s advocate, fighting its diplomatic and economic wars on its behalf. Today, Europe is the Biden administration’s trusted partner in the bid to revive and shore up Iran’s regional dominance, at the same time giving China and Russia, which are dancing nimbly to the new US-European tune, many a strategic gift.

The agenda for the next two weeks will kick off with a key policy speech delivered by Russian President Vladimir Putin during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on 2-5 June. Mr Putin is set to launch a new foreign policy tone based on the incoming accord with his US counterpart Joe Biden, whom he will meet in a bilateral summit in Geneva on 16 June. The relationship between the two leaders has been on an extremely rocky path not only account of Ukraine but also of the deterioration of Russian-European relations. But this state of play was overturned with European contribution, facilitating an agreement on holding a Russian-American summit.

President Biden will land in the European continent through Britain, where he is set to meet with Prime Minister Boris Johnson and attend the G7 Summit between 11 and 13 June. He will then head to Brussels to attend the US-European summit and a NATO summit.

The US-UK summit will be the first since Britain’s exit from the European Union, and it will be an opportunity to scope out the new nature of the Special Relationship in light of the radical changes in UK-EU relations in the aftermath of Brexit. A strategic agreement may be on the horizon to restore the glories of the Anglo-American alliance that predated the birth of the EU. Its scope may be exclusively bilateral or may also cover shared foreign policy spheres. While Britain appears today disinterested in the Middle East and Iran, it has a long history in the region and the indifference may be temporary and short-lived. Either way, London will be Biden’s first stop in his crucial European tour.

Clearly, the restoration of the traditional dynamic within the NATO alliance will be a key objective of the NATO summit, with a view to overturn Trump’s policy that had sought to bring balance to the financial contributions of the member states, upsetting the Europeans. Biden wants to restore this traditional dynamic and remove any tensions, because in his view, NATO should stay true to the purpose it was created for, rather than develop in the direction Trump had imagined.

The new US president has decided that his top foreign policy priority is resurrecting the nuclear deal with Iran. Thus, the European powers were upgraded to America’s senior, rather than junior partners. The Islamic Republic also found itself suddenly to have become an American need, having been for long in the Trump era an American liability. The Europeans shifted from being forced to submit to the Trump administration’s policy on Iran to being Iran’s advocate and emissary to the Biden administration. This is why Iran feels reassured today, entrusting Europe with the task of sparing no effort to fulfil its interests.

For this reason, Iran will be fully present at the US-European summit. It has found itself a powerful ally ready to fulfil its demands and fight battles on its behalf if that is what it takes. In the Trump era, Europe was a source of anxiety and anger for Tehran. Today, Europe occupies a distinguished position for both Washington and Tehran. Washington needs the Europeans to mediate with Iran, and Iran is reassured by the Europeans and their almost gratuitous commitment to fulfilling its demands out of Washington.

What the Europeans led by Germany are doing for Iran is historic and momentous. The International Atomic Energy Agency has concluded that Iran’s nuclear capabilities are beyond containment, and that they could be militarized if Iran so wishes. The Europeans have decided that this conclusion means they must appease Iranian demands to avoid an Iranian nuclear bomb.

Most European states like to hold Trump responsible for the development of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, on account of his withdrawal from the JCPOA. Using this logic, they justify the appeasement of Iran and forget that the latter has never stopped its nuclear project regardless of the nuclear deal. The European approach therefore is to bury heads in the sand.

Europe has decided that its nuclear anxiety justifies trampling over the sovereignty of states and human rights. The Biden administration has now converged with the Europeans at this historic juncture. In other words, the West has agreed to deliberately ignore the Iranian regime’s repression of freedoms, which the West claims are the cornerstone of its values and principles. The Europeans and Biden’s America have agreed to accept the legitimacy of the Iranian regime’s domestic and foreign policies.

Consequently, Washington and the European capitals have agreed that what is happening in Iraq does not concern them, despite the clear Iranian provocations there amid the Vienna talks, most likely to test their commitment not to intervene in Iran’s regional policies, which trample the sovereignty of countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Thus, these capitals decided to weaken the traditional and practical notion of the state, in Iraq for example, where the Popular Mobilization Forces are currently domesticating Iraq’s state and sovereignty at the behest of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Europe and Biden’s America do not care either whether the IRGC will win the Iranian presidential election, or whether it will completely deprive Lebanon of even the surface appearance of sovereignty and independence. It may even be that the victory of the hardliners in the Iranian elections is desirable to the West as well as the East, as they may both view the IRGC as a force for stability in Iran. While the West is seized by nuclear obsession, China and Russia will be relieved by this outcome, as both consider the Islamic Republic to be an ally and guarantor of their interests in the Middle East.

Some may ask, what about Israel, and its special status in Europe and the United States? According to sources familiar with the Vienna talks, the European and American negotiators have sought to convince their Iranian counterparts that Tehran should tone down its hostility to Israel, and it seems this has not been met with any resistance.

On the other hand, there is a revival of the discourse regarding the two-state solution to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, in tandem with a backlash against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as part of containing any surprises that may impact the nuclear talks in Vienna, which remain the West’s absolute priority.

In the name of ensuring the success of the nuclear talks, the Biden administration and the European governments have surrendered to Tehran’s demands to exclude from the talks its missile program and foreign policy as carried out by the IRGC in the Arab states. This means that the Western capitals are in the process of giving Iran a blank cheque to do as it pleases in the region, while working in parallel to arrange ‘consolation’ talks between Tehran and Arab capitals.

What about China and Russia? Why are the Western capitals fine with Russia dominating Syria or with the historic military-economic pact between China and Iran? Why do these capitals not care about Iran’s assault on sovereignty in Arab states that not long ago were important for the West, such as Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria? Why did accusations of terrorism levelled against Iran and Hezbollah suddenly stop? And are we about to see ephemeral agreements vulnerable to volatile domestic politics or will these be the components of a ‘grand bargain’ being sought by the Biden administration and the European capitals?

The next two crucial weeks may clarify the features of the answers to these questions.