Competing Chinese COVID-19 Narratives

Increasingly, evidence points to the possibility that COVID-19 has escaped from one of the two Wuhan labs. Public academic research shows Wuhan scientists legitimately researching ACE2 bat corona viruses since as early as 2014 if not earlier.

Two years ago the State Department had noticed and documented worrisome security lapses at the labs. Back in February two Chinese scientists, Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao from the state-run South China University of Technology penned a paper asserting the virus had escaped Wuhan labs. Their long list of security lapses well-resonated with earlier findings of the State Department.

The Lancet – a beyond-partisanship journal - has conclusively shown that initial December '19 cases were non attributable to the Wuhan wet market. The first infection had originated elsewhere.

We have to be careful and stay away from loony conspiracies. International treatises allow for the kind of defensive research Wuhan Labs were performing (and for countries to visit each others' research labs.)

There is no credible evidence whatsoever that China was working on a biological weapon and/or that the COVID-19 was lab-engineered.

So then: why does China continue to block the release of evidence, including their own domestic studies, and fail to level off with the international community regarding the outbreak?

China finds itself in a very difficult position. The CCP must choose between keeping domestic control and increasing China’s role in the international community. Previously complementary, these two pillars of the Chinese playbook have just become irremediably opposed to each other.

Within the "tight domestic-control" work-stream , it is unthinkable for the CCP to accept outbreak blame. Such acceptance would de-legitimize its Mandate of Heaven, which in China is solely predicated on competency.

There are very legitimate concerns about China's delicate socioeconomic balance. Regardless of what you think of the PRC, you must be a fool to wish ill upon its 1.4B people and hope their nation falls into chaos. To a certain point we must acknowledge CCP's Herculean domestic-control task.

On the other hand it is essential for China to increase its visibility and soft power in the world community, In this work stream of "trusted partner" China must show openness, transparency and honesty, willingness to explain and own its mistakes, including lax security controls at the Wuhan labs and their consequences. The international community needs transparency to avoid future accidents, and not to humiliate China. But this narrative will engender domestic criticism of the CCP. It is not going to happen.

Instead, the CCP will rely yet again on its standard, most narcissistic and xenophobic narrative, proven to work domestically like a charm. We've already seen some wild and absurd allegation raised by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Zhao Lijian about a month ago. That rant was purely for domestic consumption. It stuck remarkably well with Chinese netizens. His later half-retraction and the labeling of it all as "nonsense" by Cui Tiankai, China's ambassador to the US has likely failed to registered with the domestic crowd. Coming from where it came, the nonsense-narrative did however chip at China's international credibility.

China will play it safe; delay disclosure, make it partial, lie a bit here and there, creatively re-assign blame, punish some regional officials, but never fully own the issue. The Middle Kingdom has always ranked domestic stability above international ambitions and they shall continue the line.

Expect more Beijing xenophobic and narcissistic propaganda, coupled with a temporary and slight Chinese retreat from the international arena. The international community is tired and weary. Guaranteed, the Russians are already computing for ways to capitalize on the conundrum.

Coupled with the flippancy of the White House it portends for a very uncertain near future.