Twilight in the Desert.

ALL IMAGES BY THE AUTHOR.

(An article I wrote four years ago, before the death of King Abdullah)

I walked into the remarkably appointed Bedouin tent in the middle of the vast Empty Quarter, that enormous blank space amid the maps of the Arabian Peninsula seen upon grade school globes as well as official maps used by governments. My benevolent host was quietly praying in the corner, as he always did before our meetings whether business or socially oriented. He would later tell me that this was common in Saudi Arabia, in order to ask for Allah’s blessings upon that which was to come. If business, that it would bear fruit for all concerned. If social, that the gathering would help to build understanding and agreement between two such radically different cultures and social constructs. He would prostrate himself, facing Mecca, before rising again with his hands upon his knees, and sometimes raised in front of him, palms up. I entered furtively, as if I was intruding upon something intimately personal, and said nothing.

The compound was quite large. Complete with generators, mobile quarters with sleeping and bathing facilities, and vast acres of camel pens. Their uneasy inhabitants eyeing us with interest, although all were too old and large for the banquet table. These were for breeding and selling. As in the centuries old history of the Arabian tribes, camels are still seen as a sign of status and wealth. They were bred. Sold. Raced. Eaten. Used for transportation. There was a cadre of servants and others milling about. Stoking the broiling pot where the evenings meal was to be cooked within. Bringing out bowls of dates and stylistic pots of steaming hot tea, the traditional norms of Muslim hospitality to strangers in full effect.

The months I had spent in meetings with Al Saud, in both an officious capacity with Ministry of the Interior officials, as well as sharing some strong Arab coffee at a festival with the Governor of Mecca in an air conditioned VIP lounge, gave me a rare and unique perspective through which to view the current remarkable changes going on now in the United State’s geopolitical dynamic with Al Saud. The current president has changed, perhaps irrevocably, the very foundation that this relationship was founded upon. A formerly symbiotic dynamic where our shared interest in a stabilized global oil market coinciding with security concerns kept the peace between us in what is, arguably, the most volatile region of the planet. Even after 9/11, when it was discovered that the preponderance of the Islamic terrorist attackers were Saudi, our relationship managed to stay on course, with Saudi Aramco opening the oil spigots and overproducing daily output to keep fears of global economic cataclysms resulting from an explosion in crude prices from coming to fruition, and US governmental officials repeating, like a mantra, that “we are very happy with what our Saudi partners are doing to bring any peripheral players to justice.”

Saudi finds itself in a position not seen since the founding of the Al Saud dynasty. Once simply one of many powerful Bedouin tribes found throughout the Arabian Peninsula in the 19th. century, the House of Saud rose to power by forming an alliance with the religious warriors of the Ikwhan, fervent Wahabbist fighters who, combined with Al Saud, would lead to the defeat of the other tribes and families. An agreement was assumed. Al Saud would handle all matters of state, while the Ikhwan would oversee all religious matters in the now conjoined region, with all the former warring houses and tribes becoming one under the banner of the new Saudi Arabia. The strict interpretation of Islamic doctrine espoused by the Wahabbist Ikhwan would serve as the foundation of a nation state that would grow to have pains adapting to geopolitical winds for the next century. As that region suffers the civilization rending events sweeping the Middle East, this has never been more pertinent. The traditional Shiite / Sunni animus. Unrest in the Shia oriented areas of the Kingdom. The tremendous expansion of Iranian Shia influence in the region in both hard and soft power. The collapse in the price of oil. Growing adventurism in neighboring countries to stem the aforementioned specter of Iran. The House of Saud is at a tipping point. One that may lead to its days in power being numbered. Let us examine the forces at work that are shaping the current geopolitical dynamic, as well as make some predictions for the future.

The Shift.

There can be no doubt that the current US administration has shifted favor to the centuries old nemesis of Sunni powers in the region, such as al Saud, to the Shiite Mullahs of Iran under the guise of a nuclear weapons “detente.” Iran’s headlong and quite open pursuit of a crude nuclear capability, even the simple quest of enrichment to fissionable levels, have resulted in the myopic pursuit of a paper agreement to keep the Mullahs from continuing to defy global sanctions and decrees otherwise. The result of which was the absurd JCPOA, a fool’s errand disguised as a triumph of diplomacy by President Obama and his Secretary of State, John Kerry. Analysts have dissected this specious footnote to an overall abysmal foreign policy record in several different ways. Some see it as a genuine, if not naive, attempt to actually stem Iran’s enrichment efforts, even though the chances that Iran will adhere to any word of it is virtually nil to any clear thinking analyst. Others see it as a legacy enhancing effort. Something to hang their proverbial hat on as they leave office, ala Neville Chamberlain’s epic “peace in our time.” A few overthink it, and posit that the president is actually empowering the Iranian Mullahs and their Shia armies with the unfreezing of funds associated with the JCPOA, thus allowing them to do the heavy lifting of fighting the terrorist Sunni elements in the region such as Al Qaeda and ISIS. This analyst sees the last possibility as the least likely. Simply because there is no one, in any position in this administration, who is clever enough or far sighted enough to play such international geopolitical chess games. They are simply naive enough to believe they did some good with the JCPOA. This obvious pivot has caused Al Saud to seriously reexamine its relationship with the US, and Iran’s Shiite crescent continuing to expand its efforts in the region.

Shia Rising.

At no other time since the end of the Persian Empire has Iran enjoyed the level of influence and hegemony it does today. While Iran has always had proxy armies such as Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, and have flexed the tremendous military muscle this group possesses in conflicts with Israel, its current adventurism includes a new proxy element in the Houthis fighting in Yemen, as well as unleashing the aforementioned Hezbollah against the Sunni rebel groups in Syria fighting to topple the Alawite Shia regime of the Assads. This boldness is as much the result of the unwillingness of the United States to forcefully defend its interests in the region under the current administration, as the millenia old animus between Sunni and Shiite. Al Saud now finds itself being pressed by the Shiite specter from a number of sides. The civil war in Yemen on its southeastern border. Unrest in neighboring Iraq. Even little known domestic issues within its own Shiite Minority communities in the northeastern cities and villages that were brutally suppressed while I was there. This Iranian expansion, coupled with American disengagement, has led to the expenditure of men and material to actually fight in the Yemen theater in an effort to keep this unrest from spilling over its shared border. A rare event for Al Saud, much preferring to sit back and let others fight for them, such as the US in the first Gulf War.

Oil Economics.

The recent collapse in the price of a barrel of sweet crude has had a massive influence on global events that, by default, have a crushing effect upon those nation / states most dependent on oil exports, coupled with the least economic dynamism. Arguably, Saudi Arabia sits alone at the top of that list. While Venezuela is currently suffering the throes of the oil collapse coupled with a typically destructive socialist economic model crippled by out of control QE and the resultant inflation, Saudi is completely reliant upon its vast oil reserves to pay its domestic spending needs. They produce little, if anything, but that commodity that fuels modern growth and output. While their neighbors in the U.A.E. had the foresight to diversify their economies and ease their cultural norms, Al Saud has not. They are neither a tourist destination, nor a business magnet. This has caused nothing less than a sea change in domestic policy and thinking within Al Saud. Long gone are the plethora of low viability, high wage government sponsored positions for young Saudi men graduating university, thus leading to increasing numbers of aggrieved, restless youth. As this population grows, unrest and doubt will assuredly grow with it, and how Al Saud handles this will be crucial in the coming months/years. While Saudi does sit upon massive cash reserves from decades of OPEC dominance, this is finite and growing ever more so, and the associated costs with Al Saud’s aforementioned adventurism in Yemen as well as among Syria’s myriad Sunni rebel groups have made this an increasing burden fewer are willing to tolerate. Should all these negative forces coalesce into the perfect storm of domestic discontent, civil unrest and upheaval could result on a regime toppling scale, with the fallout rippling throughout the region. Spilling into Jordan, increasing the threat level to an ever wary Israel, and further emboldening an already resurgent Iran. The worst neighborhood feud in the most volatile region on the planet.

Al Saud and Islamic Terror.

Recently, our news feeds have been peppered with talk of “secret” documents within the 9/11 Commission Report, reportedly detailing intimate knowledge of, and even active participation in, the 9/11 Islamic terror attacks by members of Al Saud. Many analysts have been nothing less than apoplectic in regards to these redacted pages, with others debating whether or not there was any active participation, or even simple acquiescence with, the attacks. I have a simple answer for all of you. Bet on it. Al Saud is like any other ruling dynasty. Among them, there are as many varied attitudes and levels of religious or national fervor as there are members of that massive ruling family. While they may appear monolithic and staid in their remarkably archaic and inflexible Wahabbist faith, they are not. Among them, there are members who see the world changing faster than anyone in that closed society could have anticipated. And, that world is quickly leaving them behind. They realize it, and occasionally give their concern voice, but at the risk of losing their heads in Riyadh Square. Many more remain silent. Then, there are the true believers in the Ikhwan manifesto of Islamic global dominance, and spread this credo in the form of billions of dollars to fund overseas mosques all over the world, including here in the Unites States. These are the members of Al Saud who fund, under the guise of “Zakat” (The Arabic word for “tithe”) The myriad Sunni based Islamic terror groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS. Add the fuel of the ancient animus between Shia and Sunni to the fire of sectarian conflict all over the region, and even moderate members of Al Saud fund these movements to fight the encroaching Shiite menace. There is a quiet civil war, of sorts, going on within the Kingdom. Those who see modernity and change as the only way for Al Saud to survive. And, the others who see doubling down on the intolerant, brutal mores of the Ikhwan. It is a potential conflict with passion and religious fervor on both sides. It could very well, within a decade, literally tear the Kingdom apart. We are standing upon a threshold. A proverbial twilight in the desert.

The Future.

Because of my intimate personal experience within the Kingdom, I have often been asked by individuals of influence within both the private and governmental realms to opine as to the future of Al Saud and the current status quo within the region. I have been extremely reluctant to do so, if for no other reason that this particular geopolitical dynamic is so replete with layers of complexity and uncertainty that it would be near impossible to accurately predict such an outcome. (Please see my previous piece “The Inherent Unpredictability of Complex Foreign Policy Dynamics.” In this venue.) What I may be able to do, however, is to carefully examine the available data, and triangulate the same, to come up with a list of issues to take into consideration for those who may take interest in any potential outcome.

• Al Saud’s staying power and ability to hand over power peaceably among themselves. - A remarkable aspect of Al Saud is their tendency to agree, at the highest levels, to hand over the reigns of the Kingdom without major conflict or rancor. Considering the crucible that the Kingdom was forged in, one would be validated in expecting nothing less than a “Game of Thrones” aspect to this process. It is not. This will serve the Kingdom in good stead in the assuredly difficult times to come.
• Brutality. - Al Saud does not take kindly to dissent or insubordination. There is no Bill of Rights in the Kingdom. There are only a handful of serious offenses within the Sharia based law enforced there. (There are more regarding social issues.) Virtually all with only one punishment. Death. Among the most egregious is any offender found guilty of acting in any way, shape or form against Al Saud. Regardless of nationality, sect, ruling house, or gender. If you act against Al Saud or threaten their rule in any way.....you’ll lose your head. Period.
• Oil. - While it is true that oil has become a significantly less viable piece of this complex puzzle, it will always be a precious commodity to the industrialized world and, Al Saud is still sitting upon the world’s second largest proven reserves. While it is trendy and de rigueur to place much emphasis upon “alternative” energy sources, oil will still be the life blood of the world’s economies and even more so, among the growing list of emerging economies. It may enable the trendy leftist to get a date at Columbia’s frosh orientation to say he/she is involved in such studies, but, for the foreseeable future they will still be black holes that suck up countless billions of taxpayer dollars to appease the liberal masses.
• Iran / Shia Islam. - History will be the ultimate arbiter of whether or not President Obama’s tilt towards Iran will bear fruit for the United States or the region as a whole. This analyst has been quite vocal as to this issue, and has given myriad factual reasons in support of my opinions. There is no reason to rehash them here. However, the very real possibility that it may only hasten the acquisition of a tactical, albeit crude nuclear capability by the Shia Mullahs is a consideration. Should this nightmare scenario come to fruition, it would only hasten the Kingdoms wish to counter with a capability of their own. Perhaps even going to fellow Sunni Pakistan for guidance in this regard. Thus, the nuclear genie could be loosed upon the most blood soaked sands on the planet. After that, nuclear proliferation would be assured.
• Saudi proxies in the realm of Islamic terror. - The wildcard that is beyond even the control of Al Saud, is the myriad Sunni based Islamic terror groups the world over plying their deadly trade. What few realize is that some of these well known Islamic terror groups, like ISIS and Al Qaeda, view Al Saud as viable targets in their world domination efforts. Incredibly, the same forces that many within Al Saud fund and support see their rule as unholy and “haram”, or against the decrees of the Quran and Islam. In perhaps the ultimate irony, by simply allowing infidels like myself to even step foot within the Kingdom, thus fouling the lands of the two holiest places in Islam in Mecca and Medina, they are themselves enemies of Islam, and need to be put to the knife. A well known event in Mecca that may not be common knowledge to many of the readers of this essay is the Grand Mosque seizure back in 1979. A simple Google search will provide the details. The point being, is that Al Saud is hanging onto an alligator’s tail, perhaps in the hopes that it will eat them last. However, such an unpredictable beast has shown a predilection to devour anyone and anything they deem as unworthy. Including Al Saud. Another in a long list of potential regime toppling speed bumps to face the Kingdom.