A turning point for methane emissions
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Committed to shaping a secure and sustainable energy future for all.
Plus, how clean cooking access empowers women; our latest oil market forecasts; carbon capture’s role in clean energy transitions, and more ...
Methane emissions from energy rose slightly in 2023 but are expected to decline soon
Methane emissions from the energy sector remained near a record high last year – but substantial policies and regulations announced in recent months, as well as fresh pledges stemming from the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, have the potential to put them into decline soon, according to our new analysis.
The latest update of our Global Methane Tracker is the first comprehensive assessment of global methane emissions since COP28 concluded in December. The report finds that the production and use of fossil fuels resulted in close to 120 million tonnes of methane emissions in 2023, a small rise compared with 2022.
Emissions from methane – responsible for almost a third of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution – remain far too high to meet international climate targets. To limit global warming to 1.5 °C, a key goal of the Paris Agreement, methane emissions from fossil fuels need to decline by 75% this decade, according to our analysis.
Fortunately, efforts to cut methane emissions are expected to accelerate in 2024 and beyond, with COP28 ushering in a step-change in ambition. If all methane pledges made by countries and companies to date are implemented in full and on time, it would be sufficient to cut methane emissions from fossil fuels by 50% by 2030, our new analysis finds. Meanwhile, satellites continue to bring the world’s understanding of methane emissions and their sources into sharper focus. Greater transparency from improving technology will make it easier to identify large leaks and address them quickly.
Read the annual Global Methane Tracker report. All data underlying the analysis can be accessed for free here.
Prioritising clean cooking access in Africa ahead of our Summit in May
One of our Agency's top priorities this year is improving access to clean cooking in Africa – a major energy issue with serious health, gender and environmental consequences.
To discuss the problem and how to tackle it, we recently convened government representatives, industry leaders, investors and stakeholders from civil society for a high-level workshop at our headquarters in Paris.
The workshop – which took place on the eve of International Women’s Day – focused on shaping concrete outcomes for the Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa on 14 May. The Summit, which we will co-host in Paris with the Africa Development Bank Group, will be co-chaired by President Samia Suluhu Hassan of Tanzania, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr St?re of Norway and our Executive Director Fatih Birol.
A lack of access to clean cooking impacts more than 2 billion people around the world – particularly in Africa, where four in five people cook over open fires or on basic stoves. As our Deputy Executive Director Mary Burce Warlick and Dymphna van der Lans, CEO of the Clean Cooking Alliance, highlighted in a recent commentary for International Women’s Day, the toxic smoke that comes from burning coal, charcoal, firewood and agricultural waste is a leading cause of premature deaths among women and children globally.
Learn more in our news item on the workshop, and read the commentary from Ambassador Warlick and Ms van der Lans. We also have a series of new videos on the intersection of energy and gender issues – including one on clean cooking. Watch them here.?
Shipping disruption is pushing the amount of oil in transit to record levels
Record global oil exports and shifting trade patterns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and unrest in the Middle East have pushed the amount of oil in transit around the world to the highest levels on record, according to our latest monthly Oil Market Report.
On top of the rerouting of much of Russia’s oil exports, many ships are now avoiding the Red Sea following a number of tanker attacks in recent months. The amount of oil being transported via the Suez Canal declined by 50% in February compared with the same month in 2023. As a result, trade using other routes has surged. The trade shifts are leading to higher demand for bunker fuel for ships. Singapore, the chief global centre for maritime refuelling, has seen bunker sales reach all-time highs since December.
These trends contributed to a slight upward revision of our forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, from 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels per day. Nonetheless, demand growth is still on track to slow significantly from the 2.3 million barrels per day seen in 2023.
At the same time, according to our latest forecast, if voluntary oil output cuts by OPEC+ countries remain in place throughout the whole of 2024, the global supply balance for the year will shift from a surplus to a slight deficit – though some relief might arrive as the massive volumes of oil in transit reach their final destinations.
Read more in the highlights of our March Oil Market Report.
A strong focus on oil security will be critical through the clean energy transition
Much has changed in the global energy landscape since the IEA was founded 50 years ago, but the security of oil supply remains a pressing concern for governments around the world, our new commentary notes.
As nearly 200 countries recognised at COP28, the world needs to transition away from fossil fuels if it is to avoid the worst impacts of global warming. However, while the world's dependence on oil is lessening, it remains deep-rooted – so supply disruptions can still cause significant economic harm and have a substantial negative impact on people’s lives.
In fact, there is good reason to believe that oil supply disruptions are even more likely to occur in the coming decades than they are today. This is due to an elevated risk of supply-demand imbalances, increasing supply concentration for both crude oil and oil products, and a highly uncertain geopolitical outlook – as well as growing risks such as cyberattacks and more frequent extreme weather events.?
Energy security has been at the centre of the IEA’s mission since our Agency was founded in 1974. This work has expanded in scope as the energy system has evolved – moving from an initial focus on oil security to also include the security of natural gas and electricity supply, and, more recently, to addressing the security dimensions of clean energy transitions, such as access to critical minerals. Yet the IEA has remained focused on oil security and emergency preparedness throughout the decades.
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In other news:
Our Executive Director met with former Irish President Mary Robinson – who now chairs The Elders, a group of independent leaders founded by Nelson Mandela – at our headquarters in Paris last week to discuss energy and climate issues, notably the critical challenge of expanding clean cooking access in Africa and our upcoming Summit on this issue on 14 May.
Dr Birol also recently welcomed Brazilian Minister of Cities Jader Filho at our headquarters where they spoke about efforts to improve energy efficiency and affordability – and how to build on the strong cooperation between the IEA and Brazil on energy and climate in the context of COP30, which Brazil will host next year.
Our Agency sees carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) projects playing an important role in helping bring the global energy sector’s greenhouse gas emissions down to net zero by 2050 – and we’re following the deployment of these projects closely. We recently updated our CCUS database, which tracks all large-scale CCUS projects worldwide, and published a new commentary that looks at the policies that have spurred renewed momentum for the technology. It also explores the hurdles that remain – and outlines the actions that policy makers, regulators and investors in the space need to take. Read the commentary here.
Earlier this month, we convened experts from 11 countries – including Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, India, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Morocco and Nigeria, China and South Africa – for a workshop on the importance of fostering clean energy innovation in emerging and developing economies, with a focus on sharing lessons that could benefit others. Learn more in our news item on the event.
Laura Cozzi, our Director of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks, was recently elected to France's prestigious Academy of Technologies. The Academy brings together experts in their respective fields to analyse key issues related to technological progress.
ENERGY SNAPSHOT
A growing number of state-of-the-art satellites are monitoring methane leaks, making it easier to identify and address them. These satellites are also filling in gaps and uncertainties that remain in the data by providing timely information that may otherwise be left out of disclosures. Currently, methane emissions implied by existing oil and gas company reporting are 95% lower than our estimate for 2023, while emissions levels reported by countries are about 50% lower.
Greater transparency is expected to reduce this gap. Find out more in the latest edition of our Global Methane Tracker.
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