Turn and Face the Strange
Turn and face the strange, ch-ch-changes! Just gonna have to be a different man. – David Bowie, “Changes”
June is only a couple days away, and with June comes the official halfway point of the year (can you believe it’s gone by so fast?). And just like at the beginning of 2024, the world still changes rapidly.
It seems like there’s a new trend everywhere you turn…or at least a new variant of an old trend.
Although a tiring cycle, you must never stick your head in the sand! “Turn and face the strange” as Bowie says in his iconic song. Learn as much as you can about new developments and figure out how to deal with them.
To help you out, here are three trends on the horizon for the second half of 2024.
1. The Big Stay
Remember the Great Resignation?
It wasn’t too long ago, but data shows that era has already come to an end. The Big Stay is ascendant now – a trend where workers are more likely to remain at their current positions than they are to quit.
A survey done by talent company Robert Half Talent Solutions showed 1 in 3 people are considering leaving their job this year. That’s lower than the 1 in 2 people thinking about quitting in 2023.
The Big Stay is happening for a few reasons:
Hopefully your community financial institution is in the first boat – people want to stay because your organization is a great place to work. The second reason doesn’t mean an employee doesn’t care, but retention is more motivated by fear than love.
Quiet quitting is probably the worst part of the Big Stay. But what’s quiet quitting? Simon Sinek provides a good explanation…
There are two sides to the quiet quitting coin. One is that a worker is simply the wrong person to have on the bus. Your vision and culture are amazing, but they simply don’t care. The other side is that your culture isn’t good; there’s little intrinsic motivation to work at the institution.
Pay attention to your vision, values and culture. Are your employees value fits? Do you have a culture people love? Ideally, people stay will stay with you out of love rather than out of fear or apathy.
The workforce doesn’t play by Machiavellian rules (at least not forever). Ignoring that fact puts you in danger for when the pendulum swings back towards the Great Resignation again.
2. The Rolling Recession
The economic boogeyman – a recession – seems to always be imminent these days…or it always seems to be not coming at all. Whether a recession approaches largely depends on your favorite economist, news source or dataset.
But the answer might not be a black-and-white recession or no recession situation. Instead, the reality is more of a “rolling recession.”
This is how Goldman Sachs describes a rolling recession:
“Rather than a simultaneous and comprehensive downturn, or the outright avoidance of a contraction, a rolling recession is a more staggered response to shifting dynamics such as tighter financial conditions, higher cost of capital, and inflation.”
A downturn already rolled through the housing market, the tech industry and even some banks as the Silicon Valley Bank incident showed. Some are suggesting construction is hitting a rut now with the hospitality industry to follow.
It’s a domino effect connected to the rising rate environment and consumer or investor behavior in response. As such, certain areas like government and education don’t experience a downturn – they are less connected to interest rates.
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Given that the Fed is still struggling to combat persistent inflation, rate cuts are looking less immediate than they were earlier in the year. That means a rolling recession is likely to continue.
So, what should you expect?
Expect consumers to continue to be rate sensitive for a while, and keep an eye on the news. An industry downturn may alert you to a consumer segment about to experience delinquencies or financial troubles. Prepare for ways to help them through the storm.
3.?Fraud on the Rise
Fraud, fraud everywhere…and not an end in sight.
It doesn’t just feel like fraud is drowning community financial institutions lately; it actually is drowning them. According to Reuters, 2023 saw 5% more SARs (3,809,823 total) than 2022. The publication expects that trend to continue in 2024 with another 5% increase!
Many of our clients have seen a disturbing uptick in criminal attacks. These scams most often involve impersonating the community financial institution so a consumer hands over information.
AI makes fraudsters more dangerous than ever, allowing them to fake voices and scale their unsavory schemes…
Rising fraud is a threat to your balance sheet and reputation. Don’t let it sneak up on you. Targeted messaging is key to proactively fight fraud.
Hucksters typically victimize older consumers via newer technological channels. Armed with this knowledge, draft copy designed to educate people on the correct uses of novel systems. Do this over and over and over again. Pursue information blitzes in your newsletters, blogs or social media accounts.
Of course, there’s no way to stop it all. But the massive influx of scam losses necessitates community financial institutions continue treating criminal schemes with the utmost seriousness.
A Constant During Change
With the world spinning around your community financial institution, it’s nice to have a steady partner. On The Mark Strategies provides this stable strategy, marketing and training help for many different financial organizations.
Here’s what Melanie Kennedy, CEO of Southwest Financial FCU, had to say about partnering with On The Mark…
Book a free consultation and secure a partnership you can rely on during the highs or lows of industry trends.
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