Turkish elections; Kilicdaroglu or Erdogan?
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched his ruling party's bid to stay in power as he seeks to extend his leadership of Turkey beyond 20 years. However, he faces his toughest challenge yet from six opposition parties who have joined forces for the presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May. Turkey is facing many problems, including soaring inflation and twin earthquakes that have left 50,000 people dead. Mr Erdogan and his ruling AK Party say they will bring inflation down to single figures, a commitment already made by their opponents.
Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian under President Erdogan, and the opposition is seeking to reverse that. Any candidate that can secure more than half the presidential vote on 14 May is the outright winner. Failing that, the race goes to a run-off two weeks later. Whichever party wins the parliamentary vote is seen as having a psychological advantage if the presidential election goes to a second round.
Turkey's voters have been polarized for years, but Mr Erdogan, 69, is under pressure as never before. Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian under its current leader, who runs Turkey from a vast palace with much of the media controlled by his allies. He has ruled Turkey since 2003, initially as prime minister but then as president since 2014, dramatically increasing his powers three years later after a failed 2016 coup. His AK Party has been in power since November 2002.
Increasing numbers of Turks have blamed him for soaring inflation, because of his unorthodox refusal to raise interest rates. The official inflation rate is just above 50%, but academics say it is actually higher than 100%. Turkey's president and ruling party have also been widely criticized for failing to adapt Turkey's construction practices before the 6 February earthquakes and for mishandling the search and rescue efforts afterward.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, is the unity candidate for six opposition parties, ranging from his own center-left party and the nationalist Good party to four smaller groups, which include two former Erdogan allies, one of whom co-founded the AK Party. His Nation's Alliance, also known as the Table of Six, is united in its desire to return Turkey from the presidential system created under Mr Erdogan to one led by parliament.
Turkish opinion polls are notoriously unreliable, but any chance Mr Kilicdaroglu had of winning the election outright in the first round appears to have been dashed by the decision of a former center-left party colleague, Muharrem Ince, to join the presidential race. Mr Ince, 58, was the Republican People's Party presidential candidate in 2018, but left two years later because of differences with Kemal Kilicdaroglu. He now runs the secular nationalist Homeland Party and has faced accusations of diluting the opposition vote and playing into President Erdogan's hands.
Turks vote for party lists rather than individual candidates under the country's proportional representation system. This means that the number of seats each party receives in parliament corresponds directly to the number of votes it receives. In some constituencies, the opposition has agreed to fight under one party banner to maximize their chances of winning.
One interesting development in this election is the emergence of candidates running for the Green Left instead of the pro-Kurdish party. These candidates are part of the Labour and Freedom Alliance, a coalition of left-wing groups that seeks to challenge President Erdogan's ruling party.
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Under the new presidential system introduced by Erdogan, the president chooses the government rather than a prime minister. If Erdogan's People's Alliance fails to win a majority in parliament, it may be difficult for him to continue ruling in the same way. Currently, the pro-Erdogan People's Alliance has 334 MPs.
Erdogan has already served two terms as president, and a third term appears to go against the rules of Turkey's constitution. However, the YSK election board ruled that his first term should be seen as starting in 2018 when the new presidential system began with elections for parliament and president on the same day. Opposition politicians had earlier asked the YSK to block his candidacy.
The Kilicdaroglu-led Nation's Alliance seeks to restore Turkey's parliamentary system and reform the presidency. This includes removing the head of state's right to veto legislation, cutting the post's ties to political parties, and making it electable every seven years. The six parties that make up the alliance also want to restore "mutual trust" with the US and kickstart Turkey's decades-long bid to join the European Union. They have pledged to bring inflation below 10% within two years and send Syrian refugees home voluntarily. Turkey currently hosts some 3.6 million Syrian refugees.
Overall, this election could have significant implications for Turkey's future. Depending on the outcome, the country could see a shift in its political system and foreign policy, which could have implications not just for Turkey but for the broader region as well.
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