Dutch -Turkish diplomatic clash, clash of cultures or internal politics?

"He is a weak ruler who needs religion to uphold his government; it is as if he would catch his people in a trap."

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk

"Under Turkish law, campaigning abroad is illegal. The Turkish elections authority also confirmed a ban on “all forms of propaganda” abroad in a Feb. 15 statement this year on the upcoming referendum."

The unexpected happened this weekend. A major diplomatic row has exploded between Turkey and the Netherlands. Political analysts have warned already since months that ongoing elections in mainstream pro-European countries, such as Germany, France and the Netherlands, could become hijacked by domestic internal politics and growing right-wing tendencies in society. Even that the impact of extreme-right wing parties in NW-Europe should not be overestimated, the influence of a growing voter mass to look to the right, is a factor of interest for all political parties at present.

Growing unease with immigration and a lack of integration is playing a role throughout Europe’s ongoing elections and political discussions. At the same time, the role of Turkey, inside of the European economic and security constellation, is also of immense interest. After the influx of millions of refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and North Africa, Turkey has taken the position of being Europe’s first point of defense against a perceived onslaught. A deal between Europe, proposed by Dutch politicians (Samson Plan), and Turkey, has stemmed the influx of refugees and put Ankara in a power position it formerly didn’t have.

At the same time, Turkish internal politics, mainly due to the power politics of president Erdogan, has become a major issue of concern to European member countries. The impact of the failed military coup in Turkey, and the negative repercussions on political freedom and human rights, are still shaping the bilateral relations between Ankara and Brussels. Erdogan’s strategy to engage fully in the Middle East (Syria, Iraq), while opening up to Russia and Iran, has also put European leaders and even NATO on edge.

Still, Turkey’s historical "power position" has always been recognized by European politicians and military strategists. The Turkish armed forces are the 2nd largest military force within NATO, putting it on par with several European major countries. The strategic importance of Turkey as a military power containing Islamic extremism or power-projections of Russia, has been always the reason behind European/Western support to Turkey. Economically, Turkey is of a lesser important, but this could change dramatically if new energy links, such as Iran, Iraq or Central Asia, are being put in place and Ankara’s dream of becoming Europe’s energy hub becomes a reality. All the above has been the redline in European-Turkish relations, especially during and after the Cold War. During decades of crisis, dictatorships, military coups and turbulence, the bilateral relationship stayed intact.

The last months a dramatic change is seen. Turkey’s perceived lone-wolf approach in geopolitics, regional military adventures and its opening up to Russia and Iran, has put pressure on the relations with Europe. President Erdogan’s clear but hard political standpoints with regards to Turkish politics and opposition parties has become a polarization issue for mainstream Europeans. His call for a referendum to increase the powers of the Turkish president is not taken lightly by most. If this however was kept as an internal Turkish issue, no real diplomatic clashes would have occurred. Criticism from European leaders would have been vented but in general without direct conflicts.

This however changed the last days. After already several other European countries, such as Germany and Austria, blocked Turkish government officials to speak at referendum rallies in their towns, Turkish strategists decided to increase the pressure. The Netherlands, holding elections March 15, were targeted for a full confrontation. After days of intense diplomatic discussions between the Dutch government and Ankara, in which was made clear that the Dutch would not permit any Turkish government officials to address Turkish Dutch citizens, Ankara choose still to go forward.

Without any doubt, Turkey decided to openly confront Dutch political leaders in a way that would never have been acceptable in any country at all, including Turkey. During Friday and Saturday, Ankara increased the pressure on the Dutch government in a way that there was no other option left for The Hague than to block the presence of Turkish government officials. After that several Turkish officials, including president Erdogan and Turkish minister of foreign affairs Mevlut Casuvoglu, accused the Dutch of being remnants of Nazis and Fascism, a political redline was crossed.

Without having an inside to internal Turkish deliberations at this time, to accuse the Dutch of this, while trying to address a Turkish crowd in Rotterdam, is regarded by the majority as outrageous. Rotterdam, as one of the main Dutch cities, is also known to be one of the first European cities that has been bombed and flattened by Germany during the first days of World War II. Also, the mayor of Rotterdam, Ahmed Aboutaleb, who is a Muslim, issued an emergency order to block the referendum meetings in his town. Aboutaleb openly attacked the Turkish accusations of Nazism and Fascism, and accused the Turkish consulate even of lying about the purpose of the visit of Turkish officials.

Taking the devil’s advocate position, Turkey would have known that a harsh reaction on these statements would follow, as Dutch politicians and public would not take these accusations lightly. It is clear that Ankara understood that most Dutch politicians are under severe pressure to act more strict as elections are on the horizon. To be seen as weak in a conflict with Turkey is not the best way to win the elections at present in the Netherlands. No Dutch politician will be able to show being weak in the light of open Turkish accusations and blackmail. Erdogan has understood the latter, as his advisors have been closely following the perceived rise of right-wing politicians such as Geert Wilders’ PVV party. For Ankara, the current conflict is a god-sent. The Dutch reaction has been calculated into the Turkish strategy, as it will support Erdogan’s current position. In line with statements made by Erdogan and the AKP, Turkey is under pressure, the enemies are on the walls, Europe is becoming rightwing. The only solution for Turkey is a strong president, holding vast powers, and showing strength to confront internal threats (FETO, PKK, Army) and outside (Daesh, Syria, Russia, religious extremism).

For internal purposes, Erdogan’s strategy could work, bringing him the hard-needed but still not sure referendum victory. Externally Turkey could be confronted by a different reality. Threatening Europe already to open the gates of hell, largely by ending the refugee deal with Europe if no visa arrangements are made, has not been taken lightly. Blackmailing European leaders by accusing them of Nazi or Fascist tendencies has put severe dents in the pro-Turkey feelings around Europe. Forcing a leading EU member country to confront openly Turkish meddling inside of national elections is out of the question. Upping the ante even by now threatening severe economic sanctions on the Netherlands could tip the balance for Turkey to the negative. Economic sanctions on the Netherlands will have a European impact too. External trade is part of EU policy making. It could lead to European sanctions on Turkey or an end to financial support. 

If there will be major Turkish economic sanctions on the Netherlands, Ankara will be feeling it much harder than the Dutch. Dutch investors in Turkey are holding vast assets. Dutch investors are the 3rd largest investors in Turkey for the last years. Dutch trading house Vitol several days ago acquired Turkish downstream giant Petrol Ofisi, holding a market share of 24% of the Turkish market. If these investments are being threatened, a major outflow of cash could occur hitting the Turkish economy, which is already under pressure, severely. Instability in Turkey already has become a major concern for Western investors at present. An additional negative effect could be seen very soon. Turkey's economy is very dependent on tourism, European tourists normally are flocking the hotels on Turkish beaches. Sanctions and increased instability will lead most European (Dutch) tourists to reconsider their options, as the Mediterranean is full of nice beaches and cultural artifacts. A further decline of tourism revenues could hit Ankara's coffins very hard.

Ankara will need to reassess its current approach to Europe’s internal political landscape. The Year 2017 is a very important one, as several mainstream national elections could decide the future of the EU. Ankara’s current strategy has already made clear to European countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, that the option of becoming a new EU member is not anymore a realistic view. No European leader is able to support a Turkish accession. European voters would destroy any politician that supports the latter.

For Western politicians the other issue will be even more pressing. What to do with a lone-wolf strategy of Turkey, while it is still a member of NATO? Will this have a negative impact on NATO's future capabilities, as Western forces are using Turkish military basis to fight against Daesh in Syria, Iraq, and also fighting in Afghanistan. A stable and strong Turkey always has been in the interest of Europe, but current developments necesssitate a full re-assessment of all options available.

Still, the main question at present will be what will be the impact of this diplomatic crisis in a couple of weeks. After the Dutch elections, the main question will be what the new government will be willing to do. Continue the current situation or let things come back to normal. Historically Dutch politics are not confrontational, the so-called polder-model, based on reaching consensus via diplomacy and cooperation, is in the blood of Dutch politicians. The current confrontation is a new phenomenon. Times are changing, maybe that Turkey has misunderstood this largely.

A devil’s advocate however would state that Erdogan and right-wing politicians, such as Wilders, Le Pen and others, are colliding at present. For both sides the latter confrontation is positive. Rightwing leaders in Europe will use the Turkish crisis and the reactions of Turks living in Europe as one of the samples why there should be a more strict policy towards immigration. Voters, when looking at the riots in Rotterdam, Amsterdam and elsewhere, will not be assessing it as a minor conflict. European voters will only see Dutch Turkish men waving not with Dutch flags, but with Turkish flags. Pictures and You-Tube movies are currently shaping elections, not political programs or mainstream politicians.

Erdogan is currently leading the pack however. An increased anti-immigration call in Europe will be used to present Erdogan as the only able to protect Turks in Europe. A strong Turkish leader is needed, not only to protect the stability and safety of Turks in Turkey but also the millions of Turks in Germany, Netherlands, France and elsewhere. Both sides are creating continuing new options for escalation, as both extremes are using it to promote themselves on the domestic front.