Turbulent waters at climate talks in Bonn, Germany, with much work to be done ahead of COP29

With climate policy back in the headlines in Australia over the past fortnight, many people may not have noticed the substantive mid-year climate talks took place in Bonn, Germany, over the same period.

These UNFCCC meetings saw negotiators work over two long weeks to try and take forward key implementation measures under the Paris Agreement. At times, negotiations in relation to finance, mitigation ambition, carbon markets and adaptation were as turbulent as the swollen Rhine adjacent to the venue (the result of major rain and storms across Germany). Talks went into extra-time, finally closing in the early hours of Friday 14 June, with UNFCCC Executive Secretary describing the outcomes as "...modest steps forward", and noting that there is "...a vast amount to do between now and the end of the COP” (Simon Stiell, closing plenary speech, available here).

In this summary, I take a brief look at the two weeks and what the outcomes mean as parties head towards COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Overview

After stop start opening plenaries, negotiations opened in Bonn on Monday 3 June.?Some events took place ahead of the formalities on Monday, including the 10th technical expert dialogue and the start of the second meeting under the ad hoc work programme on the new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG).

Sticking points across parallel negotiations meant draft conclusions for the Article 6.4 and 6.2 sessions remained ‘bracketed’ (not agreed) until the closing day of the negotiations. Divergent positions are clear from the Bonn sessions.

Despite at times tense engagement, and clear disagreement, parties generally showed some preparedness for flexibility in agreeing text language to take forward to COP29. One notable exception was on the mitigation ambition and implementation work programme (mitigation work programme), where despite several hours of work across the two weeks, parties were not able to move substance forward. Frustrations were clear in the negotiation room. The inability to take text forward was met with disappointment by several parties, given this work aims to facilitate the scaling up of mitigation ambition and implementation in a manner that complements the Global Stocktake.?

Finance and the NCQG

The NCQG is the new global climate finance goal that parties will set from a floor of USD 100 billion per year, prior to 2025. This makes 2024 a significant year, as climate challenges faced by many countries mount up and the deadline to agree the NCQG looms. Work commenced in 2022 and parties are due to agree the NCQG at COP29 in Baku.

Parties met for the first meeting under the ad hoc work programme on the NCQG in Columbia ahead of the Bonn sessions. During the Bonn talks a significant “input paper” was moved forward, trimming 30 pages. However, many significant issues remain on the table and there is very clear divergence on concepts in the updated document. These include in relation the potential monetary quantum, contributor base, timing, and the approach to layers of finance that might comprise the goal (otherwise known as the multilayered approach or ‘the onion’, including any amounts mobilised from the private sector). Parties will meet again in October 2024 for the 11th technical expert dialogue and third meeting of the ad hoc work programme to progress the text before COP29 at Baku.

Several work streams intersect with finance (including the NCQG) and several also intersect with issues relating to the ‘internal’ finances and budgetary needs of the UNFCCC. Executive Secretary Simon Stiell noted at the opening plenary that parties’ financial contributions have not increased to match the Secretariat’s growing mandates. Parties remained cognisant of these circumstances during the negotiations and there may be challenges ahead with respect to matching the workload of the UNFCCC secretariat with parties’ financial contributions.

Article 6

On Article 6, progress was necessarily slow but generally constructive. Parties came together in a formal and inclusive forum for the first time since Dubai and demonstrated a desire to unpack key issues and better understand each other’s perspectives. Heads of Delegations were involved periodically over the two weeks, with discussions, clarifications and 'huddles' between parties resulting in iterated texts to take forward a text to Baku.

Parties agreed to inter-sessional workshops on key ‘crunch’ issues under Article 6.2 and 6.4 to be held in conjunction with one another before November 2024. It is hoped the additional time and space at these inter-sessional workshops will enable parties to further delve into key issues and identify potential solutions to build on and agree at COP29 in Baku.?

The COP29 Presidency has identified completing remaining elements under Article 6, including those required to operationalize the Article 6.4 mechanism, as a priority in Baku. Several key technical issues remain for parties to resolve, inter-sessionally and in Baku, including:

in relation to further guidance under Article 6.2 - matters relating to:

• authorisation (process, timing, content, changes/revocations and transparency), sequencing, first transfer, registries, addressing inconsistencies and details in the agreed electronic format (AEF) (including actions to be reported in the AEF); and
• whether to include a definition and scope for a ‘cooperative approach’, special circumstances for LDCs and SIDS, and additional functions for the international registry; an

in relation to further rules, modalities and procedures under Article 6.4 – matters relating to:

• authorisation (timing, content, changes, process for changes and implications for share of proceeds (SOP) and delivering overall mitigation in global emissions (OMGE)); and
• the mechanism registry (functions and interactions with the international registry). It is noted that the current draft text provides for eight options with respect to potential changes to the authorisation status of Article 6.4 emissions reductions (A6.4ERs).

Greater clarity was provided in Bonn regarding consideration emissions avoidance under Article 6.2 and emissions avoidance and conservation enhancement under Article 6.4. Parties agreed to hold over consideration of these matters until SBSTA 62 in 2028, and clarified that in the absence of further guidance emissions avoidance is not included in the current guidance under Article 6.2 or the current rules, modalities, and procedures under Article 6.4 .?

In relation to Article 6.8 (non-market approaches (NMA) to assist with the implementation of NDCs), parties welcomed the operationalisation of the UNFCCC web-based platform for recording and exchanging information on NMAs (NMA Platform). Parties continued discussion on identifying and strengthen NMAs, noting the holistic nature of NMAs, including through mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology transfer and capacity-building, as appropriate. Further work will be undertaken on these topics at COP29 in conjunction with the next and sixth meeting of the Glasgow Committee on NMA(GCNMA). The GCNMA is also due to report on the progress and outcomes of the first phase of implementation of NMAs at COP29 in Baku.

Global Goal on Adaptation

Divergence remained late in the June sessions in relation to work under the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) - or more specifically, the United Arab Emirates Framework for Global Climate Resilience (UAE Framework) agreed last year in Dubai at COP28.

The UAE Framework urges parties and invites non-party stakeholders to increase ambition and enhance adaptation action and support, to accelerate action at scale towards the achievement of key targets by 2030, including: reducing water scarcity; attaining climate-resilient food and agricultural production and supply and distribution of food; resilience against climate related health impacts; reducing climate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity; increasing resilience of infrastructure and human settlements; reducing climate effects on poverty; and protecting cultural heritage from impacts of climate-related risks. Further the UAE Framework includes additional targets, including in relation to: impact, vulnerability and risk assessment (including various assessments by 2030); planning (including national adaptation plans); implementation (national adaptation plans and related policies, as well as hazard reduction); and monitoring, evaluation and learning (establishing a system of monitoring, evaluation and leaning for national adaptation efforts by 2030).

Parties needed extended time on Thursday 13 June to resolve conclusions to the June session. Much work of the parties focused on the process for taking forward compilation and mapping of existing indicators relevant to measuring progress towards targets under the UAE Framework. Work will continue at inter-sessional workshops and at COP29 in Baku, as well as in 2025, under the United Arab Emirates–Bele?m work programme (which contributes to the purpose of the UAE Framework and GGA).

Agriculture

On Agriculture (Sharm el-sheikh joint work on implementation of climate action on agriculture and food security), parties managed to find compromise and agreed a roadmap for further work to November 2026. This includes finalisation of discussion on the progress and outcomes of joint work for reporting at COP31 (November 2026).?

The Bonn detour on the road to Baku

In summary work was generally constructive in Bonn. There were frustrations expressed across key work streams, as parties feel the little time left to further understand one another and try to find compromise before they meet again in Baku, Azerbaijan.?

There remains a significant amount of detailed and technically complicated, as well as political, work to be done before and at COP29. Coupled with big agenda items (finance, NCQG, ambition and transparency) in Baku, parties have left themselves with limited time and a large volume of work.

“... we took a detour on the road to Baku... ...We’ve left ourselves with a very steep mountain to climb to achieve ambitious outcomes in Baku.”

(UNFCCC Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell)

I look forward to seeing what progress is made inter sessionally - and in Baku.

~ Emily