Turbulent Times: Gaza-Israel, Australia's Referendum, and Ethiopia's Unresolved Atrocities
The New Global Order
International, independent, and nonprofit think tank of International Affairs.
Covering events from the last days of September to mid-October, this issue of Your monthly briefing will walk you through the Gaza-Israel conflict, this weekend’s Australia’s referendum for Indigenous Voices, the alarming ending of a UN-mandated investigation in Ethiopia, and some of the headlines that dominated the first days of our current month.?
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What led to the Hamas Attack On Israel – And What Now? Mark Leon Goldberg’s Global Dispatches - World News that Matters.
“The crisis in Israel and Gaza - and Southern Lebanon and the West Bank - is unfolding rapidly. Following the Hamas attacks on Saturday, Netanyahu promised to “return fire of a magnitude that the enemy has not known.” Israel has already launched heavy airstrikes on Gaza and seems to be readying a ground? invasion. Meanwhile, unrest in the West Bank has resulted in 11 Palestinians killed by Israeli soldiers, and in Southern Lebanon Hezbollah has been trading rocket fire with Israel. Joining me to discuss this crisis is Daniel Levy, who is head of the U.S. Middle East project and is a former peace negotiator under the government of Israeli Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak. ”?
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Chaos in Gaza After Israel Counter-Attacks In Retaliation For Hamas Attack
Last Saturday over the 40-mile Gaza-Israel barrier, Hamas dealt a striking blow to Israel's defence. Explosive devices dropped by drones defied past claims of impregnability, disabling the wall’s communication towers and remote-controlled machine gun posts. Simultaneously, snipers neutralized sensors and cameras, leaving Israeli defenders staring at blank screens, unaware of the deadly motion around them.
The surprise attack by Hamas marked a significant escalation in the conflict between Israel and the Islamist militant group, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare “We are at war, and we will win,” vowing that the enemy would pay an unprecedented price. Israel retaliated with air strikes on Gaza. The offensive by Iran-backed Hamas involved a barrage of rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel and heavily armed gunmen attacking the country’s south from Gaza.
Both the EU and the U.S. condemned the Hamas assault. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen described it as terrorism in its most despicable form, while the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, strongly condemned the multiple and indiscriminate attacks across Israel by Hamas. Nonetheless, tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered across the Middle East and in various regions of Asia, Europe, and the United States to express solidarity with Palestinians and denounce Israel as it escalated its attacks on Gaza in response to Hamas assaults a week earlier. While Western governments and many citizens have strongly supported and sympathized with Israel in light of the Hamas attacks, the Israeli reaction has also stirred anger, especially in Arab and Muslim nations.
As the conflict threatened to escalate further with Israel’s promises of greater retaliation, there were international calls for restraint and adherence to international law. Israel's measures, including the order to move Palestinians in Gaza, faced condemnation, and authorities were urged to de-escalate tensions. However, Israel's ambitions to eliminate Hamas's ability to govern Gaza through military action have historically proved challenging, raising questions about the potential outcomes of the current crisis.
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) issued an evacuation advisory for Gaza City, urging around 1 million Palestinians to relocate southward “for your own safety and the safety of your families." Gaza officials report over 1,500 casualties from Israel's retaliatory airstrikes, and Palestinians allege that Israel's endgame is to pressure Gazans into Egypt. Hamas, the ruling Islamist party in Gaza, advised people not to flee, and Al Jazeera cited the Hamas Authority for Refugees encouraging residents in the north to remain resolute at home and resist the psychological war waged by the occupation.
"The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences," stated Stéphane Dujarric, a spokesperson for U.N. chief António Guterres. The World Health Organization also called for a reversal of the evacuation order, emphasizing that without immediate aid entry, essential healthcare services would cease. Meanwhile, Egypt is resisting calls to permit Gaza civilians to cross its border through the Rafah crossing, with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi urging Palestinians to “stay steadfast and remain on [their] land.”
Australia Votes No To The “Indigenous Voice” Referendum
A historic referendum took place in Australia on Saturday, focusing on the recognition of Indigenous people within the country's constitution through the establishment of a new parliamentary advisory board. The "Yes" campaign aims for victory, which would result in the creation of the Voice to Parliament. This body would enable representatives from First Nations communities to offer independent advice to lawmakers regarding issues that impact them, such as health, education, and housing.?
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, representing the centre-left Labour government, aims to establish a Voice that would empower Aboriginal people, giving them more influence in policy making to address pressing issues and improve their living conditions. Nonetheless, as the referendum approaches, the nation is grappling with divisions exacerbated by reports of racism and abuse triggered by widespread misinformation on social media.?
However, polls suggested that Australians are likely to reject the referendum proposal, which seeks constitutional recognition of Indigenous people by establishing an advisory body for parliament. Polls indicate a clear majority leaning towards a 'no' vote in almost all states leading up to Saturday's vote. For the proposal to pass, it needs both a majority national vote and a majority in at least four of the six states.?
The opposition Liberal party leader, Peter Dutton, is a prominent supporter of the 'No' campaign. This campaign raises concerns about the lack of clarity regarding how the Voice would operate and how its members would be selected. Notably, no referendum has succeeded in Australia without bipartisan support, and this one, the first since 1999, appears to follow that pattern.?
In the end, the majority of ballots counted, the "No" vote led "Yes" 60% to 40%. All six states rejected a constitutional amendment proposal recognizing First Nations people and establishing an advisory body for them to counsel the government.??
Azerbaijan's Ethnic Cleansing In Nagorno-Karabakh?
In Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, the ethnic Armenian population, primarily Christian in a predominantly Muslim nation, is facing rapid ethnic cleansing. The recent escalation underscores the failure of years of diplomatic efforts to prevent the persecution of ethnic Armenians, and the available options within the realm of international law to address this situation are limited.?
The Armenian government has accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, a charge that Azerbaijan vehemently denies. Ethnic cleansing is defined by the United Nations as "a purposeful policy designed by one ethnic or religious group to remove, by violent and terror-inspiring means, the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group from certain geographic areas." The accusation of ethnic cleansing stems from Azerbaijani army intimidation and the use of starvation tactics against ethnic Armenians during the months-long closure of the Lachin Corridor between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.?
EU legislators accused Azerbaijan of conducting "ethnic cleansing" against the Armenian residents of Nagorno-Karabakh and urged EU member states to impose sanctions on Baku. The parliament urged the EU's 27 member states to "implement targeted sanctions against individuals in the Azerbaijani government" due to the assault and alleged human rights violations in Nagorno-Karabakh. The resolution was supported by 491 legislators to nine, although the EU is not obliged to act on it. European diplomats stated that sanctions against Azerbaijan were not under current consideration, and action would likely be taken only if the situation worsens. Additionally, they called on the bloc "to decrease the EU's reliance on gas exports from Azerbaijan".
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The Granada Declaration Omits Migration After Opposition From Hungary And Poland
During an informal EU summit in Granada, Spain, the prime ministers of Hungary and Poland drew attention by opposing a section of a joint declaration that focused on migration. This is not the first instance of Viktor Orbán and Mateusz Morawiecki teaming up to derail a communiqué from the European Council, as they did so previously in late June. In both cases, the contention was related to the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, a comprehensive reform of the bloc's migration policy aiming to establish a system of "mandatory solidarity" where all 27 member states actively contribute to managing and receiving asylum seekers.
The joint statement was narrowed down to only address the bloc's enlargement, omitting migration concerns. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki expressed his rejection of the migration-related paragraph in the summit conclusions through a statement on social media. Addressing the issue of reducing the number of refugees and migrants arriving illegally in Europe was a prominent topic during the summit of European leaders in Granada. Migration remains a significant concern for the bloc, particularly in the lead-up to next year's European elections and amidst growing populism that often fuels anti-immigrant rhetoric.
After months of deadlock, EU members reached an agreement on the final part of a migration deal, aiming to strengthen measures against illegal migration and establish an agreement to distribute arriving migrants among EU members. The declaration also highlighted Europe’s commitment to laying the necessary internal groundwork and reforms for expanding the union beyond its current 27 members. Additionally, the Granada declaration reiterated the EU's dedication to advancing its military capabilities, enhancing energy security, and fostering partnerships outside of Europe.
End of UN Investigation of Ethiopia’s Atrocities Leaves All The Victims In a Limbo??
Although the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE) stressed the crucial need for ongoing independent investigations into Ethiopia's severe human rights crisis, its mandate has ended. Mohamed Chande Othman, Chairperson of the Commission, expressed deep concern over the situation in Ethiopia, citing an abundance of risk factors for potential future atrocities.?
In a two-year conflict between the government and regional forces from Tigray, thousands lost their lives. The conflict officially concluded in November of the previous year. Accusations of atrocities, such as massacres, rape, and arbitrary detentions, were exchanged by both sides, with each denying responsibility for systemic abuses.
The Ethiopian National Defence Forces, Eritrean Defence Forces, and allied regional Special Forces and militias were collectively held responsible for egregious acts, including mass killings, systematic rape, sexual violence, deliberate starvation, forced displacement, and large-scale arbitrary detentions, all constituting war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The ICHREE reiterated in September that war crimes and crimes against humanity are still being perpetrated in Ethiopia. However, strong African opposition has deterred proponents from seeking another mandate. Ethiopia, denying widespread abuses, vigorously opposed the investigation and advocated for its national justice policies as the preferred inquiry avenue —an approach criticized by the U.N. commission as "deeply flawed."?
As the mandate of the independent rights investigators ended, coinciding with the conclusion of the UN Human Rights Council’s 54th session, victims were left in uncertainty. The warning follows a prior Commission report to the UN Human Rights Council, affirming war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ethiopia since November 3, 2020. ICHREE called for genuine accountability, expressing doubts about Ethiopia's commitment to delivering on its promises. Victims and rights advocates urged the European Union, instrumental in establishing ICHREE in 2021, to propose a text for renewing its mandate.
Human Rights Watch stated that the European Union and its member states have shifted their stance on endorsing an investigation into the human rights conditions in Ethiopia. Tirana Hassan, the executive director of Human Rights Watch, expressed in a statement, "This is a devastating setback for the many victims of atrocities in Ethiopia who had placed their faith in the commission."
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